Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ValueInvesting

Most recents (24)

Tras abrir el melón de la rentabilidad del fondo #TrueValue de @alex_estebaranz y analizadas las reflexiones que ha despertado paso a compartir mi opinión al respecto.

🧵

2/

Parto de dos condiciones que, seguro, condicionan mi opinión:

A/ Siento una notable simpatía hacia Alejandro porque,

1º Es un emprendedor (ya solo eso es de valorar) y además de éxito (pase lo que pase con el fondo, él ya nunca será pobre).
3/

2º Considero que es un buen gestor (dentro de las muchas limitaciones que conlleva el #ValueInvesting)

inbestia.com/analisis/value…
Read 28 tweets
67 yaşında halen aktif olarak portföyünü yöneten Thomas Russo, takip ettiğim ve portföyünü izlediğim bir değer yatırımcısı. Büyüyen kaliteli şirketleri al ve tut stratejisinin başarılı bir örneği; 30-40 yıl önce aldığı bir çok pozisyonu hala koruyor.
Stanford'da okurken 1982’de okula gelip şirketlerin marka değerini vurguladığı bir konuşma yapan Buffet’ı dinledikten sonra bazı şirketlere yatırım yapıyor ki bir kısmı hala portföyünde. O zamanlar aldığı Berkshire Hathaway, Nestle ve Heineken hisselerini 40 yıldır hiç satmadı.
Yaklaşık 10 mlr $ yönetiyor ve bu üç şirket portföyünün %36’sını oluşturuyor. Yatırım yapmaya başladığında Berkshire hissesi 900$ seviyesindeydi, şimdi 400 bin $’ın üzerinde. En büyük pozisyonu hala Berkshire Hathaway, portföyünün %18’ini oluşturuyor.
Read 17 tweets
¿Quieres batir al mercado?

Estos son los "perros del Dow" a 15/09/22, es decir, las empresas del Dow Jones con más rentabilidad por #dividendo.

$VZ 6,36%
$DOW 5,97%
$WBA 5,61%
$IBM 5,26%
$MMM 5,12%
$INTC 5,06%
$CVX 3,54%
$CSCO 3,51%
$AMGN 3,41%
$JPM 3,39%

Abro hilo 👇🏼
Los perros del Dow son empresas grandes y estables castigadas por el mercado.

Por eso su rentabilidad por dividendo es alta ya que cuando el precio baja la rentabilidad por dividendo sube.
Esta estrategia de largo plazo y "contrarian" se popularizó en 1991 gracias al libro "Beating the Dow" de Michael o'Higgins.

Históricamente lo ha hecho fantásticamente bien: *un 8,7% anualizado* (incluidos dividendos) desde el año 2000. Mejor que el SP500 y el Dow Jones
Read 8 tweets
Why $BRK's 2019-20 purchase of #Japan Inc is a potential #stagflation trade for the history books

🧵 follows

In this week’s PBL (just out!) we PiggyBack:

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway into Japanese trading houses

Read/join free @SubstackInc:
piggyback.one/p/buffetts-inf…
1/X
Let's get to it:

August 31, 2020. $BRK sent out a release that left its many U.S.-focused watchers curious:

Berkshire disclosed having 5+% stakes in all five of #Japan's "big five" general trading houses (Sogo Shosha) after purchasing over 12 months in Tokyo Stock Exchange

2/X     “I am delighted to have Berkshire Hathaway participate
Buffett's / $BRK's "big five"

1 Itochu 🇯🇵TYO:8001|🇺🇸 $ITOCY
2 Marubeni Corp 🇯🇵TYO:8002|🇺🇸 $MARUY
3 Mitsubishi Corp 🇯🇵TYO:8058|🇺🇸 $MTSUY
4 Mitsui & Co 🇯🇵TYO:8031, 🇺🇸 $MITSY
5 Sumitomo Corp 🇯🇵TYO:8053|🇺🇸 $SSUMY

Chart @theTIKR
Disclosure: Long 1+2+3+4+5 piggyback.one/p/legal-discla…
3/X Chart 2: Market capitalization of equity and total enterpris
Read 9 tweets
1 New to investing?

2 Confused by #fintwit jargon?

3 Do we trust people presenting “valuation” to know what they don't know?
(Hint: “my-laser-eyed-golden-skin-ape-pic-is-worth-at-least-twice-your-diamond-skin-ape-pic” = relative pricing. Not valuation)

Follow #PiggyBack🧵

1/X Image
Equity = Assets - Liabilities

But what asset and liability values are we going to use?

The answer as always: it depends on what we are going to use it for.

Here is a summary of equity metrics, from the most conservative:

2/X
Price/”Net-Net” Working Capital (P/NNWC)

Classic Graham/Dodd strategy

Assumes: Use only most liquid current assets, deduct subjective discounts.

Conditions (often missed in screens):
1) Not consuming assets (melting ice cube/negative cash-flow)
2) Historical profitability

3/X Image
Read 28 tweets
What is value investing?

Value investing is a long-term investment strategy used by investors to seek out stocks that are trading for less than their intrinsic or book value.
Just like online shoppers keep tabs on their favourite items and buy them when they go on sale, value investors track down stocks they think are being undervalued by the stock market.

Investors analyse and use various metrics to find the right valuation of the stock.
They believe the market overreacts to good and bad news that result in stock price movements disproportionate to the company’s long-term fundamentals.

This offers them an opportunity to buy stocks at a discounted rate.
Read 4 tweets
Beginning of real-estate upcycle? what if an ancillary is set to grow faster and still cheap?

Let's deep dive into Greenply and understand the multiple tailwinds ahead in this thread 🧵🧵

#StocksToBuy #valueinvesting
Contents:
1) What's Wood panel
2) Industry Business model and players
3) Demand drivers
4) The Trigger - what's changing
5) Financials & Valuation
6) Antithesis
Lets und the products and business first
1) Wood panel Industry:
Industry is primarily plywood (80%) with some shares with MDF and particle board.
a) Plywood: made of thin veneers from rolling wood logs - mostly Eucalyptus. Veneers are pressed with glue to make dense plywood
Read 19 tweets
(1/8)
Bir işin gerçek değerini ne belirler?

Bunu basitçe ama finansal kavramlar kullanarak anlatmaya çalışacağım.

Bir işin gerçek değeri,
(i) mevcut faaliyetlerin nakit üretme gücü ile
(ii) gelecekte büyümenin yaratacağı ek değerin toplamıdır.
(2)
Yani şirketin mevcut haliyle değerine gelecekteki büyümenin katkısını ekliyoruz. Her büyümenin şirkete değer katmayabileceğini aşağıda anlatacağım.
(3)
İlk kısım, faaliyetlerden elde edilen nakit akışından tüm işletme maliyetleri ve vergi giderleri düşüldükten sonra kalan nakit (NOPAT) ile ilgilidir. Yani şirketin mevcut faaliyetlerinden elde ettiği yıllık sürdürülebilir net nakit akışı.
Read 8 tweets
(1)
Bir şirketin değeri, yaptığı işin değerinden farklı mıdır Peki piyasa fiyatı şirketin gerçek değeri midir?

Şirket diye neyi alıp sattığımızı bilmeliyiz. Önümüzdeki pastanın hepsi bizim olmayabilir :)
(2)
Şirketler gelir elde ettikleri faaliyetleri yürütmek için kaynak (sermaye, dış kaynak) ihtiyacı vardır. Girişimciler şirketi büyütmek için yeni ortak alırlar (stratejik, finansal, melek yatırımcı, risk sermayesi, halka arz vb) ve borçlanırlar (banka kredisi, bono ihracı vb)
(3)
Şirket borç aldıklarına faiz öder, borç verenler kazanç pastasından başka ısırık almaz. Tüm giderler sonunda kazanç kalıyorsa devlet de vergi olarak payını alır. İşin riskini üstlenen hissedarlar ise faaliyet kazancının faiz ve vergi gideri sonrası kalanında hak sahibidir.
Read 9 tweets
1/13 MEGAHILO tesis de inversión $DOLE y por que creo que su valor intrínseco actual es cercano a 35$.
2/13 Esta empresa es el principal proveedor mundial de productos frescos (frutas y verduras)
Cultivan mas de 300 productos en mas de 30 paises y los distribuyen en mas de 80 a través de canales minoristas, mayoristas y de servicios de alimentos.
3/13 Cadena de suministro integrada verticalmente. Lo que significa se encargan de todo el proceso desde la huerta hasta la distribución. Es una ventaja muy fuerte a la hora de ahorrar costes o incluso como proteccion ante inflaccion. Esto es uno de los MOATs que veremos despues
Read 14 tweets
1/ How does Warren Buffett calculate his growth rates when valuing businesses?

Here's the answer (in a nutshell): Be conservative!

Full answer from WB below👇

How do you come up with a growth rate? 📈

#valueinvesting #StockMarket #GrowthMindset
2/ WB: "When the [long-term] growth rate is higher than the discount rate, then [mathematically] the value is infinity.

This is the St. Petersburg Paradox, written about by Durand 30 years ago.

Some managements think this [that the value of their company is infinite]."
3/ "It gets very dangerous to assume high growth rates to infinity – that’s where people get into a lot of trouble."

The idea of projecting extremely high growth rates for a long period of time has cost investors an awful lot of money."
Read 5 tweets
1/ In this week's Stock Spotlight, I took a look at Kroger (KR).

I actually came away surprised after my analysis.

In this thread, I will be explaining why $KR is the safest grocery stock you can find on the market.🧵👇 Image
2/ History 🕮

The Kroger story actually began in 1883 in my hometown of Cincinnati, Ohio.

Mr. Barney Kroger invested his entire life savings into opening his store downtown.

Mr. Kroger put his main focus on quality products, while delivering excellent prices to his customers. Image
3/ Mr. Kroger was the inventor of “one-stop-shopping”.

He figured out that if he opened his own in-store bakery, he could lower the prices for customers and keep quality high.

This lead to added convenience and profits for both parties. Image
Read 28 tweets
1/ In 2021, most investors are unwilling to touch energy companies.

I think this is a big mistake.

Why?

Like it or not, we will be using fossil fuels for decades to come.

How can value investors use this to their advantage?

I think I found a company that can deliver. 🧵 🛢️ Image
2/ Quick Disclaimer❗

I am an ardent supporter of green energy, and would love to see fossil fuels phased out.

It is no doubt the future.

I truly think it is the future and that in the long run, electrification and renewables will dominate the energy landscape...eventually.
3/ However, thanks to fossil fuels, we have an abundance of food thanks to gas-produced fertilizers, high/low tech plastic gadgets, and quick and efficient delivery of the goods to your local supermarket.

They are ingrained into our modern lives whether we like it or not. Image
Read 26 tweets
1/25

Some books within minutes , force you to ditch the e-version of kindle & buy the hard copy instead !🙂

The Joys of Compounding is one such 💎
Content ( Curation + Creation ) at its finest !

Compressed JUST A FEW takeaways in this 🧵

#BookTwitter
#BookRecommendation
2/25
Invest in yourself. Read.
Self educate. Think in isolation !

Everything in life can teach you when you possess the right mindset.
Read across a wide spectrum,for the scenes change but the behaviours & outcomes don't.

How to go about #READING & #THINKING effectively.
👇
3/25

First Principles Thinking requires us to delve deeper & question everything until one is left with the fundamental truth in essence.

Deconstruct to effectively
Reconstruct ! ( Both in times of Greed & Gloom )

How to apply it to the field of #ValueInvesting
👇
Read 26 tweets
1/7 The complete list of Q2 '21 hedge fund letters are out!

Here are my top 5 letters in the list 🧵👇

#hedgefundletters #Q22021 #valueinvesting
2/7 @IntrinsicInv

I love Ensemble's mission and blog content. High quality all around.

This quarter, they focused on their positions in $NTDOY and $ILMN.

Nintendo has a long-term generational mindset, whereas the competition thinks in far shorter time-frames.

#longterm
3/7 Rowan Street Capital

Rowan Street is putting up some great performance over the market.

In this letter, Rowan focuses on their position in $SPOT, and what makes them such desirable businesses.

#patience
Read 7 tweets
1/ My top three takeaways from Howard Marks' latest memo "Thinking About Macro".

Thread below🧵👇

#howardmarks #valueinvesting #macro Image
2/ Most economic forecasters have lousy track records, so why trust them?

Time and attention is best spent elsewhere.

#economy #Economist Image
3/ Prices are mostly physiological elements reflected in reality.

Perceived increased demand can drive prices up, and vice versa.

Perception is not always reality.

#stockmarket Image
Read 5 tweets
Some principles of #ValueInvesting
(These are from various sources & some of them practiced by me, credit to all respected and great investors like - Peter lynch, Buffett, @VijayKedia1 , RJ and many more) ...
1. There are no shortcuts - Invest in yourself before you invest
1/n
into any investment.
2. Ignite the fire inside you, find a mentor -Who can just lit a light and you act like camphor.
3. Never time the market
4. Buy the value and not the price
5. Stay with your conviction
6. NEVER LOSE YOUR MONEY - Capital protection is most important.
2/n
7. Always take small consistent profits, then waiting for random large gains.
8. When other are celebrating, be cautious.
9. When others are fearful, open your shopping list and buy value stocks.
10. Market is all about repeating history, check for those events and connect
3/n
Read 6 tweets
Thread ...
A different way of looking at the art of investing.
To make your investment free of cost, how to do that?
1. Picking 1 stocks that can give 100 % returns is difficult
2. Picking 2 stocks that can give 50 % returns, bit difficult but easier than 1.
contd...
3. Picking 10 Stocks that can give 10 % returns each, is what most of us can do ..
By doing so, diversification, risk mgt are also added to the portfolio. Learn the way VCs, look for potential investments in companies. They work on the 80:20 rule, out of this 20% portfolio,
1/n
Investment grows multi-folds and covers the losses of even that 80 % bad investments also. If odds are with you, you might also end up finding 2 gems in your portfolio, which can create long-term wealth for you.
The probability of finding 10 such stocks is always high and can be
Read 5 tweets
📻 TODOS* los podcasts y canales en español sobre inversiones

*NO trading ⛔️
*Avisar si falta alguno 🙏

🗳️ Votación para rankearlos al final del hilo

Disclaimer: esto sí es una recomendación de escucha

#ValueInvesting #podcasts #EducacionFinanciera

En orden de antigüedad ⬇️
2/

📻Value Investing FM @ValueInvestingS @The_Godas
bit.ly/3oyJYOy

📻Mas Dividendos @MasDividendos @maal2al
bit.ly/3v6qQKj

📻El bazar de la bolsa @JMPesudo
bit.ly/3yqre8s

📻Píldoras del conocimiento @Lualobus
bit.ly/2T0hxgB
Read 9 tweets
1/ Little v “value” vs Valuation Investing

Little v “value” investing focuses on buying cheap stocks Example: High B/P

Valuation investing focuses on buying undervalued, stocks trading below intrinsic value

Let’s explore the differences

#ValueInvesting
#ValuationDriven

🧵👇
2/ Little v “value” investing buys accounting variables such as book equity cheap relative to a stock’s price

But:

Value is monetary worth

Cheap is relatively low in cost

Little v “value” is Cheapness investing, not true Value investing
3/ Cheapness investing spawned an industry through a seminal paper from Fama/French in 1992.

It documented amazing results to buying high book to price stocks from ‘63/‘91

In the study high b/p portfolios literally printed $

Trillions of $ chased the published results since Image
Read 15 tweets
1/
 
What should the “intrinsic P/E ratio” be for an “average US company” in today’s market?

Is it possible to find this out?
 
Yes, it is roughly 16.92.

Let’s do some math.

#stocks #investing #ValueInvesting
2/
 
First, let’s define what is an “average US company”?

We assume this is a US company that is mature.
 
Its cash flows grow at a steady rate.
 
It has market average risk: beta = 1.
 
And it earns no excess returns: Return on Equity (ROE) = Cost of Equity.
3/
 
For such a company, we can use the Gordon Growth Model to compute its intrinsic value:

P = FCFE1 / (r – g)

where FCFE1 is next year’s cash flow available to equity owners (or potential dividend), r is the cost of equity, and g is the steady growth rate.
Read 9 tweets
Inflation $TLT worries=opportunity to invest in single family rental leader Invitation Homes $INVH. At $28/sh implies 4.8% 2021 cap rate. Trades at ~5-10% discount to NAV.
$AVB $EQR $CPT $MAA $ESS $VNQ $AMH $XLRE #reits #dividends
SHOULD trade at premium to NAV->Platform value:
2/While anyone can buy a home and become a landlord, this is a scale/density business. To effectively manage single family homes bigger is MUCH better. Scale allows for in-house provision of services (hire a plumber full time for $200/day rather than pay $150 for each visit).
3/Route density is also critical. On average, INVH owns at 5,000 homes per market. Can cluster maintenance jobs. This has lead to NOI margins of ~67%. Put simply, with scale INVH retains more of each rental $ as profit than competitors.
Read 11 tweets
Thread/

The US stock market is expensive.

The bad news: future returns of your “US index of choice” are likely to be low

The good news: Value stocks are the answer. “Value decade” (trademark to @RyanPKirlin) is coming!

#ValueInvesting
First, the market being expensive (from @LeutholdGroup)... Compare the “median stock” in the S&P from February 2000 to November 2020. Pricey!
Of course, interest rates are insanely low. So low, Schiller update his CAPE model to try to account for low interest rates. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Read 11 tweets
Time for a very short story !!

Once a 14 year old kid, who used to deliver newspapers, told his family friend that if he doesn't become a millionaire by the age of 30, he'll jump of the tallest building of his city !

Sadly, he didn't become a millionaire by 30 ! 😔

1/n
#story
I'm sure nobody even remembered his outrageous claim after 16 years but that child.....that child is now the age of your grandpa and is worth $85 Billion !!! 😮

He is the legend himself - Warren Buffett !

A short thread on Warren Buffett !

2/n
#WarrenBuffett
Warren Edward Buffett, also known as the "Oracle of Omaha" is the 4th richest man in the world as I'm writing this.

Born in 1930, in Omaha, USA, he went from being a newspaper delivery boy to the owner of Berkshire Hathaway, a $526 B conglomerate !

3/n
#Omaha
Read 9 tweets

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