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think 🦇🔊+⚡ Investing | Philosophy Verified Analysis on @Cryptoquant_com ➡️ Youtube ➡️
Jun 27, 2022 5 tweets 5 min read
#MVRV Z-Score is a standard deviation that pulls the extremes of #Bitcoin price and #BTC realized value. The higher Z-score = more overvaluation, vice versa. A key on-chain indicator

The Z-score had just moved into "undervalued" zone this week, last seen in Dec 2018 & March 2020 Image @glassnode #Bitcoin % Supply in Profit hit a new cycle low.

Currently BTC supply % in profits rebounded from 50% during the $20k crash, macro bottoms for BTC happened in the past when BTC supply in profits reached 40-50% level.

Getting closer. One more capitulation could do the job. Image
Jun 26, 2022 5 tweets 5 min read
#Bitcoin has been making higher highs since the crash to $18k, but the recovery is nothing impressive after a crash of this magnitude.

I think #BTC might stay in this area for sometime waiting for July CPI number, macro decisions (Fed) and Q2 earnings/recession confirmation. Image But to be fair, this crash is significant because it has brought #Bitcoin down to the level in sync with previous cycle bottoms.

#200WMA gives a bottom target of $22.4k, #BTC is now below that.

BTC also resting on 1 fib extension level in this correction, like 2018 cycle bottom Image
Jun 26, 2022 4 tweets 3 min read
13 years since #Bitcoin's inception, #BTC has never seen a secular #bearmarket (Monthly #RSI has never been oversold), eventually this will come.

Though I strongly believe BTC will have at least one more cycle to go before this happens, it is possible this has already began. Image In a secular bearmarket, the "only only" mentality gets tested then shattered. People will ask "how is this possible?", we saw a hint of this when #BTC fell below previous cycle top $20k.

Much alike #NASDAQ in dotcom age, for 14 years, it has always had higher highs... Image
Dec 6, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
If you think #Bitcoin cycle will continue and this is just a mid-cycle correction, then historically, this large drawdown (30% from ATH) should be an excellent buy.

Each time after new ATH, there are several >25% corrections, other than the last one in the cycle, all good buys. In the 2017 cycle, after #BTC passed the previous ATH of $1k, there were 7 corrections that are >25% (3 of them are >35%), except for the last one, the first 6 were all good buying opportunities. After the 6th correction, BTC went from $6k -> $19k ATH.
Dec 4, 2021 4 tweets 5 min read
Due to the @Grayscale trust discount, #Grayscale had been selling their #Bitcoin bit by bit for almost 10 months now, on average selling 30-50 #BTC a week. Image In contrast, last December, #Grayscale was buying BTC aggressive due to their trust premium.

For example, from #Bitcoin's $20k to $40k move from Dec 2020 to Feb 2021, @Grayscale played an instrumental role, they purchased 60,240 #BTC during that period ($1.8B USD worth of BTC). Image