A thread on account size. Only my opinions.

Beginner - Less than 5L.

Most preferably <2L, since chances of blow-ups are extremely high in expectation of higher returns.

Ideal Expectations(IE) - Stay break-even or more and build confidence in your skill, develop setups.

1/n Intermediate

5-25L

This is the side-income category. Cannot reliably support family expenses only from trading income alone. Advised only if you pass the beginner stage and have confidence.

IE - 3-5%/month, more is possible depending upon skill and market conditions.

2/n

A thread.

Earnings Trades Simplified.

Earnings announcements are public announcements that display a company’s earnings, or lack thereof. As the earnings announcement gets closer, implied volatility tends to increase. After earnings are announced,...

1/n the uncertainty of what will happen diminishes, and usually we see a rapid decrease in implied volatility because of it. Because of this phenomena, we tend to stick to premium selling strategies when it comes to earnings plays. We can take advantage...

2/n

A Thread.

What is Implied Volatility (IV) and How it can be used?

IV of a underlying shows how volatile it might be in future.

Options prices affect IV.
IV increases when premium is bought.
IV is not an input in pricing model but can be estimated from it.

1/n 1 Standard Deviation Move -

In statistics, one standard deviation is a measurement that encompasses approximately 68.2% of outcomes.

Implied volatility can help you calculate probability. When it comes to IV, one standard deviation means that there is approximately a 68%..

2/n

A thread on Basic Neutral Strategies.

For Beginners.

When and what to Execute.(Discretion)

Strike Selection, Probability of Profit, Risk involved, Breakeven, Expiry.

Profitability increases IF executed at high VIX(relative) and it falls AFTER.

Assuming rangebound trend.

1/n Types of Strategies -

1) Short Strangle
2) Short Straddle
3) Iron Condor
4) Iron Fly.

Basic parameters required -

High IV Rank(>50), High IV Percentile(>80) on the underlying product, or High VIX(relative) if traded on Indices.

Preferred to delve only on monthly options.

2/n

A Thread for new traders.

Trading the right instrument-

Cash/ Futures/ Options.

What to trade?

Sentiment Assumption - Bullish.

Only Execution part, will not dwell on how to predict direction.

No complex or neutral strategies explained.

1/n Cash

I consider Cash better than Futures for long side. It gives a good risk profile for you to operate in as a retailer. Preferred for a swing buy as BTST days are done with the new SEBI rules. It's good to have momentum with you but is not a must in shorter time frames.

2/n

Start #trading?

A Thread.

So you want to make it as a trader, in short time?

I am going to sound discouraging but that’s how the reality will look like. I am just going to point out the main bumps ahead of you.

1/n 1) Methodology

It’s a ocean of info and you’ll be overwhelmed instantly. Most probably duped for many months /years by tips/paid services, TV channels. It will take years to find out what works for you, considering your mindset and temperament.

2/n

2017 - August/September.(massive bull run)

1.5L capital shrunk to 1.32L because I took some stupid brokerage plan in ICICIDIRECT. Fortunately/Unfortunately I doubled this money trading stock futures by the end of the year, mostly buying and sitting tight.

1/n

https://twitter.com/marketjaw/status/1284410842524422145

2018. Music stops with Kim rockets. Holding futures overnight was disastrous, especially February. Somehow I was managing to hold on to my capital but never made any money. Things continue same for another 3-4 months with me going to selling options.

2/n

The French Revolution and What Went Wrong By @SClarkeWriter

A fascinating book! There is a great deal of background, detailing how the excesses of Louis XIV and Louis XV precipitated the downfall of the monarchy under Louis XVI.

1/n This puts the reign of Louis XVI,and the impossible job he had to change anything for the better,into context,and paints him as quite a sympathetic character.The book also briefly covers the aftermath of the revolution, the rise of Napoleon and the post-revolutionary period

2/n

Two ways to trade a market, always trade one setup/system, in any underlying. But one thing to be checked is your setup/system should have positive expectancy over a long period of time. This is checked by back testing for a long period of time.

This is Systems Trading.

1/n Another way to trade a market is identify the kind of day the underlying is having- range-bound, trend, volatile two sided moves, the trader then decides to deploy a strategy which best suits the market. I consider this discretionary trading, and this is primarily what I do.

2/n

Lots of People asked me how I determine the long term, short term, trend of the market. Normally I don't talk technical, because I use the most elementary tools to keep it simple.

Moving Averages.

I am not going to tell you what they are, instead how I use it.

1/n From Big to Small. All are DAILY AVERAGES.

Long Term Trend :-

200 MA

Price above or below, suggest long term long or short.

A Thread.
On Popular Demand.

Trading Books and Reviews which helped me, for beginners as well as seasoned traders/investors. Will keep updating as I read more books. 1/n
Technical Analysis for the Rest of Us By Clifford Pistolese

One of the very first book I read on Technical Analysis.
I read this on my first semester before even opening any of my subject books in college. Has exercises at the end of each chapter to make the concepts clear.

Decided to read a book in this long weekend, completed one.

I've already read William L. Shirer's epic -"The Rise and Fall of Third Reich".

It had all the big players and their actions playing out but lacked one critical aspect-the reaction of masses, So I found this book... The Coming of The Third Reich by Richard J.Evans

A Review :

Every question I had about how and why Hitler was able to rise to prominence and so swiftly overtake not just the political but also the cultural, educational, and military institutions in Germany has been answered-

As a directional trader, most people can get the direction right. In my case I found this was to be true.

The catch comes in execution. I used to buy/sell stocks at strong support/resistance. But most of the times it won’t work.

Why?

1/n Lesson with Example :-

Buy ITC at 235.

Most people will put the wrong kind of SL here.

If you’re retail or doesn’t have a systematic trading practice, this trade shouldn’t be in futures/options,only should be done in cash.

Cash trades doesn’t have expiry and lot size.

2/n

@TheEconocracy: The Perils of Leaving Economics to the Experts
by Joe Earle, Cahal Moran, Zach Ward-Perkins

Review :

This one was a real eye opener about the state of professional economics and how it is currently being taught, and finished as a plea for change.

1/n The book starts from the simple premise that the economics profession failed to foresee the crash of 2007, failed to understand it once it occurred. We are served by a policy of muddling through. It is not unfair to say that the economics profession has failed a generation.

2/n

The Second World War By Winston S. Churchill - A thread

For Romans in Rome's quarrel
spared neither land nor gold,
Nor son nor wife,
nor limb nor life,
in the brave days of old.

'Horatius at the Bridge' by Thomas Babington Macaulay

1/n #1 - The Gathering Storm

In the first volume of Churchill's history of World War II, we get the real-life version. Churchill can see Germany rearming and becoming stronger, and he understands what Hitler's policies will lead to. He tries to warn Britain and the rest of...

2/n

First 15 min candle in #Banknifty , 240+Pts move.

#VIX below 17 🤷‍♂️

Will explode sometime or market gonna quiet down big time?

#IndiaVIX #Nifty #Banknifty Explosion

Finished reading "AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order" today.

Favorite Excerpt :
"A clear-eyed look at the technology’s long-term impact has revealed a sobering truth: in the coming decades, AI’s greatest potential to disrupt and destroy lies not in... international military contests but in what it will do to our labor markets and social systems. Appreciating the momentous social and economic turbulence that is on our horizon should humble us. It should also turn our competitive instincts into a search for cooperative ....

Trading is/should be a full-time job. There is no “I’m a trader on the side”. If you pull off that expression, then you’re not serious about trading yet.

If you have a “job” and still trade on the side, it’s almost a given that you’re fucking up both. Have you ever heard of an engineer who is surgeon on the side?

No?

Well, to become a successful trader, it takes almost as much commitment, if not more. And I say commitment, not hard work because experience have taught me that hard work isn’t enough in markets.

@Singh7575 @Mitesh_Engr @PRSundar64 @SubhadipNandy @SunderjiJB @itjegan @Ronak_Unadkat @bhatiamanu - These guys can have difference of opinions among themselves, but they are the inspiration to young retailers who wants to make it in this field.

First 6 digit day in Personal Ac. I started trading in F&O space in August 2017, straight out of college, with a initial corpus of nothing more than this profit figure.

I started using Twitter a bit later, followed the right guys, applied the techniques which were suitable for my mental set-ups and avoided noise

#AXISBANK - I am accumulating in this range.

Reason - I trade direction only on strong supports or resistances. I believe 660 is Strong support in this counter.
SL is a weekly close below 640.

PS:- My trade is through Cash, my time horizon is also big.

#trading #markets Skin in the Game : I have a long at 660 taken two weeks back . I have it pledged for margin.