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#Alisson’s #PremierLeague form is an absolute joke! 🔥

He’s faced 7 1v1 situations so far & saved all 7! 🤯

My model predicts an average #PL GK would’ve conceded ~4 goals from those situations by now! 👑

How long do we think he can keep the 100% record? 🤔

#LFC #LiverpoolFC
My model uses a database of #PremierLeague 1v1s to not only calculate the expected save probability of each 1v1 situation but to also predict what the optimal strategy is in each situation & how likely a GK would be to make the save for a given decision (for more see thread👇🏻).
So can #Alisson keep this up?

He obviously cant keep his 100% 1v1 record forever but I think he can keep his way above avg form going as my model finds that #Alisson only decreased the finish difficulty for the opposition striker with his decision making on 1 of the 7 occasions!
Read 3 tweets
🏆🇪🇺 Champions League probabilities:

🔀 Who has the best chance of winning & qualifying from each #UCL group using our xG model?

A: #ManCity, PSG, Leipzig, Brugge
B: Atletico, #LFC, Porto, Milan
C: Sporting, Dortmund, Ajax, Besiktas
D: Inter, Real, Shakhtar, Sheriff

🏆 Champions League Group Probabilities:

🔀 Who has the best chance of winning & qualifying from each #UCL group using our xG model?

E: Bayern, Barca, Benfica, Kiev
F: Villarreal, #MUFC, Atalanta, Y Boys
G: Lille, Sevilla, Salzburg, Wolfsburg
H: #CFC, Juve, Zenit, Malmo

📊 The Infogol model's top-two predictions for all eight #UCL groups.

💷 The 'both teams to qualify' acca is 153/1 with @SkyBet

🤑 The straight forecast acca is 4385/1 with @SkyBet
Read 3 tweets
Many Liverpool fans are unhappy that their club has not bought more players in this summer’s transfer window. This thread looks at where the money has gone, reviews the #LFC business model under FSG and explains why the approach is less restrained at other clubs.
This summer #LFC only spent £36m on RB Leipzig defender Ibrahim Konaté, by far the lowest of the Big Six. Four clubs splashed out more than £100m:#AFC £149m, #MUFC £126m, #MCFC £115m and #CFC £108m. On a net basis, #LFC £11m was second smallest, as #CFC made £110m sales. Image
Even though #LFC spent £74m the prior season, mainly on Jota, Thiago & Tsimikas, their £110m gross spend in the last two years is still the lowest of the Big Six, far below #CFC £330m, #MCFC £260m, #AFC £226m. #MUFC £201m and #THFC £160m. Liverpool also had the lowest net spend. Image
Read 49 tweets
#LIVCHE - 𝐓𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝

Key points:

🔴VVD showed Lukaku's true level
🔴Liverpool need Origi against low block
🔴James = handball but not a red
🔴Havertz and Mount dangerous first half
🔴Liverpool fall asleep from corner

CC: @TacticalPad

#LFC #cfc #chelsea

Havertz has always been a major set piece threat from his Leverkusen days, so why he's being marked by Henderson and not a VVD is poor man marking strategy by Liverpool.

He should be the main focus from a corner, not Lukaku.
Havertz and Mount were excellent in the first half and supported Lukaku with interchanging runs, runs in behind and Fabinho struggled to get to grips.

James and Alonso holding the width, allowed Chelsea's CAMs the freedom to wreak havoc centrally and in the half spaces.
Read 9 tweets
🧵 Pre-match press conference thread Gameweek 3 [Friday]

🐦 Liverpool

📢 Jurgen Klopp on Andy Robertson: "Robbo trained the whole week, of course he [is] in contention, no doubt about that."

#fpl #gw3 #CHpressers #lfc #LivChe
📢 Klopp on team news: "Millie [James Milner] will not be ready – I think that's it pretty much. All the rest trained and looked good and sharp."

#fpl #gw3 #CHpressers #lfc #LivChe
☔️ Aston Villa

📢 Dean Smith on team news/injuries: "Ollie Watkins will train with us today and if he gets through training, he’ll be available for selection.

"[Leon Bailey's] progress is going ok but tomorrow will come too soon for him..."

#fpl #gw3 #CHpressers #avfc #AvlBre
Read 49 tweets
Given the importance of wage bills to the likely success of football clubs, I thought that it would be interesting to look at wages for the Big 5 European leagues in the 2019/20 season (the most recently published accounts). Some thoughts in the following thread.
As a technical note, I have converted wages from Euro denominated leagues to GBP using the 1.14 exchange rate from the Deloitte Money League. To facilitate comparison, I have provided figures for each league in both Euros and GBP, though the overviews are only in GBP.
In England the highest wage bill in 2019/20 was #MCFC £351m, followed by #LFC £326m, #MUFC £284m, #CFC £283m, #AFC £225m and #THFC £181m. It is worth noting that some clubs’ figures were inflated by changing their year-end date, which meant the accounts covered 13 months.
Read 19 tweets
Nathaniel Phillips Thread :

@LFC's injury crisis last season led to Jurgen Klopp trying as many as 19 different centre-back combinations. Eventually, Nat Phillips stepped up putting in a valiant shift, helping them secure a CL spot.
#NatPhillips #LFC #Liverpool #EPL #DataViz
Phillips’ no-nonsense approach to centre-back for this Klopp team saw him record a surprisingly well-balanced output. He was exceptional in the air and was an effective distributor of the ball too.
#Phillips #LFC #EPL
Phillips averages 8.81 clearances & 6.05 areal duels, ranking him the highest for these metrics in Europe’s top 5 leagues.
He wins very few tackles & gets dribbled past often. This could mean he doesn’t lunge into challenges, however, 1.62 fouls committed per game contradicts it
Read 9 tweets
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant adverse impact on football clubs, though it is important to distinguish between money that has been completely lost to the game and income that has simply been deferred. This thread will analyse what this means for the Premier League.
Many clubs have listed the revenue impact of COVID-19 in their accounts, while others have not quantified the amounts. In the latter case, I have made assumptions consistent with those clubs who have provided figures in order to estimate the impact.
On the face of it, Premier League revenue held up quite well in 2019/20, though there were only 3 months impacted by the pandemic that season, as 4 clubs reported revenue above £400m (#MUFC £509m, #LFC £490m, #MCFC £478m & #CFC £407m), while all but one club was higher than £100m
Read 34 tweets

Liverpool 2 - 0 Burnley

xG: 2.84 | 0.77
Attempts: 27 | 9
Shots in box: 20 | 7
On target: 8 | 3

🔓 Access this data and more:

#FPLCommunity #FantasyPremierLeague #FPL #LFC #LIVBUR

Aston Villa 2 - 0 Newcastle

xG: 1.49 | 0.56
Attempts: 10 | 9
Shots in box: 6 | 6
On target: 2 | 1


Crystal Palace 0 - 0 Brentford

xG: 0.54 | 0.91
Attempts: 7 | 14
Shots in box: 5 | 7
On target: 2 | 3
Read 5 tweets
I have put together a graphical overview covering some key areas of football finance:

1. Profit & Loss
2. Revenue
3. Expenses
4. Balance Sheet

Each of the 4 pages includes 6 graphs showing 10-year trend for a club, starting with the “Big Six” #AFC #CFC #LFC #MCFC #MUFC #THFC
Arsenal graphical overview covering some key areas of football finance:

1. Profit & Loss
2. Revenue
3. Expenses
4. Balance Sheet

Each of the 4 pages includes 6 graphs showing the 10-year trend for #AFC
Chelsea graphical overview covering some key areas of football finance:

1. Profit & Loss
2. Revenue
3. Expenses
4. Balance Sheet

Each of the 4 pages includes 6 graphs showing the 10-year trend for #CFC
Read 8 tweets
Project Preview:

This #AlexanderArnold FK against #Chelsea was the most unstoppable FK in the #PremierLeague since 2017/2018 according to the FK ExSaves model I’ve built!

My model predicts this shot would only be saved 6 times in 1000!

& Trent made it look so simple!

#LFC #GK ImageImage
For those interested, this graphic is a good representation of what the model actually “sees”.

The variables used to train the model were:

• Initial Shot Distance
• Initial Shot Angle
• Shot Trajectory Relative to the Wall
• Final Shot Location
• Shot Velocity Image
My model passed the sanity check as it found:

Closer FKs are harder to save ✅

More central FKs are harder to save ✅

FKs which go over the wall are harder to save ✅

FK which are higher & closer to the corners are harder to save ✅

FK which are faster are harder to save ✅
Read 4 tweets
Paris Saint-Germain’s signing of Lionel #Messi from #FCBarcelona has come as a major surprise to the footballing world. This thread will look at the financial implications and explain how #PSG are likely to still be able to meet UEFA’s Financial Fair Play (FFP) targets.
Despite a €99m (15%) fall in revenue in 2020, partly due to the COVID pandemic, #PSG wage bill still rose €43m (12%) to €414m, the club’s highest ever. This was more than 3 times as much as the closest challenger in France, Lyon with €132m, representing 29% of Ligue 1 wages.
#PSG €414m wage bill is the second highest in Europe, only surpassed by #FCBarcelona €443m (before their La Liga salary cap challenges), but more than clubs like #MCFC €401m, #RealMadrid €378m, #LFC €371m, #FCBayern €340m, #MUFC €324m and #CFC €323m.
Read 50 tweets
Class from #Alisson!

Wonderful decision to wait & react rather than engaging #Pukki!

#Alisson’s improved so much vs long range 1v1s!

19/20 long range 1v1 ExSaves: 6.01
19/20 long range 1v1 Saves: 5 ❌

20/21 long range 1v1 ExSaves: 11.46
20/21 long range 1v1 Saves: 13 ✅

#LFC ImageImageImageImage
So many GKs panic when strikers run in 1v1 (& #Alisson used to be one of them) & feel they have to rush out & immediately & end up gifting easy finishes.

It’s awesome that #Alisson seems to have fixed this weakness in his game because his compatriot #Ederson still hasn’t! 👇🏻
By backing off #Alisson forces #Pukki wider than he would’ve been if he had rushed early & allows his defenders to pressure the ball from behind & forces #Pukki to try to smash the ball rather than having an sidefoot or chipped finish which makes the chance quality so much lower! Image
Read 5 tweets
Thoughts on the XI?

So many things I didn't see coming.

I didn't see Virg starting the season.
I didn't see Klopp going with this midfield - and I am a little worried about Milner as a 6.
I am surprised Firmino isn't starting - but had a feeling he wouldn't be here. Image
My assumption is the returning guys like Thiago, Hendo, Firmino and Fabinho missing pre-season means we will be slow in introducing them all.

I predicted 5-0 in my preview for this game btw. I almost never go with big scores but this thread explains why. Norwich's pre-season hasn't gone well, they struggled to name a subs bench in their last friendly and with so many new players it could take a
Read 78 tweets
Newcastle United’s 2019/20 financial results cover a season when they finished 13th in the Premier League for the second year in a row. Disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Some thoughts in the following thread #NUFC
#NUFC swung from £41m pre-tax profit to £26m loss, as revenue fell £23.8m (14%) from £176.4m to £152.6m, partly due to COVID, while expenses increased £45m (28%), including an additional month of accounts. Profit on player sales was up £2m to £26m. Loss after tax was £23m. Image
Main driver of #NUFC revenue reduction was broadcasting, which fell £18m (14%) from £124m to £106m, while match day dropped £7.4m (30%) from £24.8m to £17.4m. However, commercial rose £1.4m (5%) from £27.7m to £29.1m, including £1.2m from government job retention scheme. Image
Read 52 tweets
When I started working for a financial services company aged 18 I really struggled with managing problems and my work. It is another of those skills that would be useful to learn at school but we just never did.

I was lucky that I had some fantastic bosses who wanted to help me
grow rather than criticising me for being a fuck-up.

One of them taught me to categorise all my work that comes in and problems I need to solve into 4 simple categories.

Important & Urgent
Important but not Urgent
Urgent but not Important
Neither Urgent or Important
The reason is when we have a lot - or even too much - to think about we have a tendency to just treat things as 1s and 0s. Every piece of work and every problems is just 1. One of many.

This advice from one of my bosses just completely changed my life as I could apply it to
Read 17 tweets
Crystal Palace’s 2019/20 financial results covered a season which ended in “a relatively disappointing 14th place following a run of bad results after lockdown”, according to chairman Steve Parish. Financial results were adversely impacted by COVID-19. Some thoughts follow #CPFC
#CPFC swung from £5m pre-tax profit to £58m loss, mainly due to profit on player sales dropping from £46m to only £0.5m. Revenue fell £13m (8%) from club record £155m to £142m, partly due to COVID, while expenses increased £5m (2%), including an additional month.
Main driver of #CPFC revenue reduction was broadcasting, which fell £11.7m (9%) from £124.4m to £112.7m, while match day dropped £2.8m (19%) from £14.6m to £11.8m. However, commercial rose £1.4m (9%) from £16.4m to £17.8m. Note: this revenue split is from club’s Annual Review.
Read 43 tweets
Fulham’s financial results for 2019/20 cover a season when they were promoted to the Premier League after just a single year in the Championship, finishing 4th, then winning the play-off under manager Scott Parker. Some thoughts in the following thread #FFC
#FFC pre-tax loss widened from £20m to £48m, as revenue fell £80m (58%) from £138m to £58m, due to relegation to the Championship and the impact of COVID, partly offset by profit on player sales rising £23m to £25m, while expenses were cut £29m (18%). Loss after tax was £45m. Image
#FFC £80m revenue fall was largely driven by broadcasting’s £65m (60%) decrease from £109m to £44m, due to lower TV money in Championship, though commercial also dropped £9m (52%) from £18m to £9m and match day fell £5m (48%) from £11m to £6m. Image
Read 43 tweets
Manchester United have announced financial results for Q3 of 2020/21, incorporating the first 9 months of the season. This covers January to March 2021, so provides further insight into the impact of COVID. Some thoughts in the following thread #MUFC
For Q3 #MUFC pre-tax loss improved from £29m to £23m, despite revenue dropping £5m (4%) to £118m, a £1m loss on player sales and expenses rising £7m (5%). This operational decline was offset by net interest payable falling from £25m to £1m thanks to forex gains.
The main reason that #MUFC revenue only fell 4% in Q3 was £33m increase in broadcasting to £59m, due to return to Champions League, which compensated for COVID influenced reductions in match day, down £28m (95%) to £2m, and commercial, down £10m (15%) to £58m.
Read 35 tweets
Former Liverpool goalkeeper David James as urged his former club to sell Mohamed Salah.

“In my eyes and I’ve said this many times, he might be second in the Golden Boot running, but I think Liverpool play better without Salah."
[Stadium Astro]


“And the opportunity for Liverpool to maybe cash in on Salah, Jota naturally fits into that front three, Firmino gets more freedom arguably and then Liverpool have a new dynamic up front rather than what seems to be a reliance on Salah’s goals.”
[Stadium Astro]

“This is not about Mo Salah not being a good player. His goal record speaks for itself. Similar statistics to someone like (Sergio) Aguero where Pep Guardiola can look at Man City and not need Aguero.
[Stadium Astro]
Read 6 tweets
Mini Anfield Gelugor is ready !!
#YNWA #LFC !! 👍🏻👍🏻💗💗 Image
Pics from last night's "Live Zoom Match Viewing" we had with #PenangReds !! #LFC #YNWA ..1/n ImageImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets
🧵 Pre-match press conference thread Gameweek 37 [Tuesday]

☔️ Aston Villa

📢 Dean Smith on team news: "I’m hopeful Tyrone Mings trains today.

“Morgan (Sanson) is still not available, he’s just got a recurrence of the..."

#fpl #gw37 #CHpressers #fantasypl #avfc #TotAvl
📢 Smith on team news: "...knee injury so he’s out for the last couple of games. Matty Cash the same with his hamstring."

#fpl #gw37 #CHpressers #fantasypl #avfc #TotAvl
📢 Smith asked if Grealish is ready to start: "Jack is training today and then we’ll have a discussion with him after and with the medical staff to decide on the progress of his recovery..."

#fpl #gw37 #CHpressers #fantasypl #avfc #TotAvl
Read 44 tweets
🧵 Quotes thread Blank Gameweek 36 [Sunday]

☔️ Aston Villa

📢 Dean Smith asked if Jack Grealish will start against Spurs or in #GW38: "I’m hopeful [he will start one at least]. He’s pushing, he’s had no reaction in..."

#fpl #bgw36 #CHpressers #fantasypl #gw37 #avfc #TotAvl
📢 Smith asked if Grealish will start against Spurs or in #GW38: "...his first game [against Everton] or today so he’s building those minutes."

#fpl #bgw36 #CHpressers #fantasypl #gw37 #avfc #TotAvl
📢 Smith on Matty Cash: "Cashy will miss the last two games. It is a recurrence of a hamstring injury. Nowhere near as bad as last time but enough to put him out for a couple of weeks."

#fpl #bgw36 #CHpressers #fantasypl #gw37 #avfc #TotAvl
Read 29 tweets
Quick estimate of the revenue earned by English clubs from Europe this season up to the final. This analysis is based on the participation fees, prize money and TV pools from 2019/20 distributions plus the UEFA coefficients for 2020/21 #MCFC #CFC #LFC #MUFC #AFC #THFC #LCFC
#MCFC and #CFC have both earned over €100m after reaching the Champions League final with €120m and €117m respectively, followed by #LFC €89m and #MUFC €76m. Europa League clubs receive significantly less: #AFC €29m after reaching semi-final, #THFC €21m and #LCFC €17m.
#MUFC €76m represents their total earnings from Europe, split into €62m from the Champions League (eliminated at the group stage) and €14m for reaching the Europa League final. Note: they only receive participation fee and UEFA coefficient from the senior competition.
Read 12 tweets

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