Thread by @rjmarr

#Election2019 for @VaGenAss is less than 2 weeks away. I have thoughts.
#Thread #VAPolitics #VAGeneralAssembly
1/11

As I wrote for @RVAmag this week, I think #BlueWave is (probably) still cresting, with @vademocrats likely to take back #VAGeneralAssembly
rvamag.com/politics/opini…
2/11

Basic numbers still favor Dems by far. Dem fundraising is good, including record haul for @debrarodmanva; still getting tons of outside $$, as I told @vpm earlier this month
vpm.org/news/articles/…
3/11

Other trends head in same direction. Example: @vcucns reported for @MercuryVirginia last week on uptick in student absentee ballots. (These are Dem votes - #yutes not gonna be energized by Kirk Cox)
virginiamercury.com/blog-va/uptick…
4/11

Nationalization of local politics is real. Even candidate for county COMMISSIONER OF REVENUE (?!) says he is Trump guy
virginiamercury.com/2019/10/15/in-…
5/11

For better or worse, Dem voters care much less about #Northam #Blackface than the fact that #Trump is still in office; #Trump still driving Dem turnout
virginiamercury.com/blog-va/ralphs…
6/11

Another bad sign for #GOP: candidates in battleground districts are increasingly desperate; like #SD10, where Sturtevant has decided best play is to go full segregationist
courthousenews.com/push-for-schoo…
7/11

But Sturtevant is painted into corner; Dunnavant in #SD12 shows how hard to run moderate campaign. As I told @StreeverWrites in @RichmondMag, she can't be "Dr. D" when she voted against #Medicaidexpansion
richmondmagazine.com/news/news/elec…
8/11

#VAGOP Trying to say Dem opponents as extremists. But voters, esp. suburban white women energized by Trump, much more likely to vote on gun rights than supporting transgender rights or - HORRORS - letting 16yo vote

9/11

Of course, Dems could win statewide vote but still lose key districts; control of @VaGenAss will still be numbers game. Still, best guess is @vademocrats likely to have a good night
10/11

Final note: #vote on Nov. 5, you sillies! Find your polling place here:
vote.elections.virginia.gov/VoterInformati…
11/End