Thread by @PJverhagen

Thread on what happened in #DemocraticDebate!
Here are my big take aways:

1. #BloombergBust
2. #WarriorWarren
3. Steady Pete
4. Bernie sticks to his message
5. Whats stays in Vegas wont stay in Vegas

I'll break everything down point by point, lets get right into it 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 1/18

1. #BloombergBust

Lets get it straight, #Bloomberg had a terrible night. Thats the (GOP) elephant in the room. He took incoming from everyone. But lets add a bit of nuance and separate out between Bloomberg in the first half and the second half.

Bloomberg-1 was terrible. 2/18

like. Awful. Dumpster fire. Got whacked first question out of the gate, gave a terrible answer on the #NonDisclosureAgreements and tried a mea culpa on #StopAndFrisk. Neither one was effective, and the others didnt let it slip either. Bloomberg-2 did okay though. He gave 3/18

some decently phrased answers on climate change and I thought actually had a pretty effective back and forth with Bernie on billionaires. This was mostly because he stayed calm with Bernie doing his trademark ranting. Especially his comment that Congress writes the tax code 4/18

and billionaires dont will resonate with the voters hes angling for. Its a "If its broke then it broke on your watch and you didnt fix it" kind of argument.

Bloombergs mere presence changed things. His appeal is among others that he is not "woke" or PC, much like Biden 5/18

but where Biden has a slip up and bad phrasing here and there Bloomberg has said some straight up offensive stuff. By comparison it might make Biden look better. The fresh face also really gave a lot of tinder for Warren to take out the flamethrower, and thats the next point 7/18

2. #WarriorWarren

Damn, she came out the gate swinging. She went after everyone, Bloomberg, Pete, Bloomberg, Amy, Bloomberg, did I mention Bloomberg? Not only did Bloomberg represent an effective foil for Warren to present her key proposals (wealth tax), his misogynism 8/18

her one of the stronger lines in the night: "I've been nice to some women" as not being an adequate defense against the allegations. She also made a clear pivot towards non-white voters, speaking about #ClimateJustice and about Latino and black issues. Warren is one of 9/18

the headline stories coming out of this, and even if she doesn't see a bump in the polls she might have just taken out Bloomberg in the process.

3. Steady Pete

So Pete didnt have a bad night perse, but he didnt do anything thats surprising and he needs to shake it up. 10/18

Like Warren, he was articulate as always, but unlike Warren he didnt show a new face and didnt cater as effectively to non-white voters. While Pete did well in Iowa and NH he didnt change the status quo for now.

He also attacked Bernie (again) which works fine for him, 11/18

but he also attacked Klobuchar and that was much less effective, especially as she dragged him back into a discussion in experience. That exchange was a net negative for him I think.

4. Bernie stays on message

Lemme disclaim this by saying 12/18

I'm not a huge fan of Bernie. He did well in the debate, he always does, and right now he is the front runner for the nomination. He is likely to win Nevada but I think the net result of this debate is not positive for him. Thats because a strong night for Warren makes 13/18

the competition stronger. On top of that Bernie has a very consistent argument and while he definitely targeted Bloomberg it doesnt actually change the content of his argument. Its about big pharma, income inequality, lobbyist. Its why his supporters love him, but 14/18

he didnt deal with with Bloomberg as well as Warren did. The sequence about the #BernieBros was also not great and the fact he is now the frontrunner means that every part of his campaign will be under scrutiny. As said, hell likely win Nevada, so here is point five. 15/18

5. What happens in Vegas wont stay there

This debate may have some impact on the #NevadaCaucus but I suspect it will be muted. Early voting has already started, and the bigger impact is going forward (Bloomberg isnt on the ballot. Nevada is the first state with a non-white 16/18

population whoever wins there, or comes in a strong second can pick up the elect-ability mantle, especially if its not Sanders. Klobuchar was weak at a critical moment and Pete didn't change the game, while Bloomberg was uh. not great. If all of their support abandons ship 17/18

and moves to support a single candidate, that person is likely to be the nominee. If not its either brokered or its Sanders.

That ends my rant for now, tomorrow ill look at the Nevada demographics and polling!