Thread by @jseldin

BREAKING: US-led coalition in #Iraq #Syria suffering "a decrease in visibility" as it continues to track/counter #ISIS while consolidating forces in both countries, per acting @DoD_IG Sean O'Donnell

@CJTFOIR also tells IG, its forces face a “significant risk” from ISIS prisoners

"It said that the #SDF faces continued difficulty guarding detention facilities & #ISIS-affiliated camp residents continue to facilitate ISIS activities" per acting @DoD_IG O'Donnell

Also difficulties in trying to "prevent the spread of ISIS ideology in the camps"

"CJTF-OIR reported that #ISIS continued to wage a 'low-level insurgency in both #Iraq & #Syria this quarter, but remains unable to hold territory and continues to rely on small-arms attacks" per @DoD_IG O'Donnell

"In #Iraq, these attacks were concentrated in mountainous & desert provinces north&west of #Baghdad" particularly the area claimed by both the central gvt & the Kurdistan Regional Gvt, per @DoD_IG "In #Syria, the majority of attacks occurred in #DayrazZawr, #Hasakah & #Raqqah"

NEW: @CJTFOIR 's ties w/#Iraq Security Forces impacted by tensions w/#Iran

Need to prioritize force protection to counter Iran-backed militias “probably sowed doubt within the ISF” that the Coalition would continue providing support to Iraqi forces, @DeptofDefense told @DoD_IG

NEW: Coalition accelerated transfer of bases in #Iraq to Iraqi forces - #AlQaim, #Qayyarah Airfield, Ninewa Operations Center & K-1 - due to " increased threats from malign actors and greater force protection concerns" per @DoD_IG citing @CJTFOIR

Transfer of bases to #Iraq resulted in build-up in #Syria

"The Coalition transferred assets, including fire support & medical evacuation equipment, to sites in northeastern Syria" per @DoD_IG "US force strength in the Eastern Syria Security Area (ESSA) increased slightly"

#ISIS increasing pace of attacks in #Iraq #Syria since April, per @CJTFOIR & independent assessments BUT that may not last

@CENTCOM @DefenseIntel tell @DoD_IG "ISIS lacks the capabilities to sustain elevated attack levels over several months" per the report

.@CENTCOM also told @DoD_IG the decrease in #ISIS attacks in #Syria for January-March period was “strong evidence” that ISIS is not “making a comeback"

Per @CJTFOIR, #ISIS is unable to generate resources to conduct large-scale attacks, per @DoD_IG report

@USTreasury also says ISIS revenues in #Syria at "historic lows" thought the group still has access to hundreds of millions of dollars

Per @CJTFOIR, #SDF prisons holding #ISIS fighters still running a “risk of a mass breakout"

Coalition also assesses ISIS prisoners pose “one of the most significant risks to the success of the [defeat-ISIS] mission"

US, coalition worried, too, about #ISIS families in the IDP camps like #alHol citing a "relatively permissive environment" for ISIS supporters

.@DeptofDefense @StateDept @USAID "have struggled to address the often competing needs of providing security, isolating #ISIS members and supporters, preventing the spread of ISIS ideology, & providing for the health & welfare of camp residents" per @DoD_IG

"The three Lead IG Offices of Inspector General have observed difficulties faced by the three agencies in determining how to address #ISIS activity in the camps, but none has asserted authority to address the matter directly" per @DoD_IG report

"The DoS deferred to the DoD and the SDF, which is in charge of guarding the camps, on camp security matters, stating the US Government does not claim that authority" per the @DoD_IG report

"USAID stated that a system for humanitarian coordination provided a forum for camp management to discuss security concerns, but deferred to the DoS for additional information" per @DoD_IG report

"The DoD indicated that it has limited visibility into the camps and was unable to provide an estimate of the number of #ISIS activists, or the number of violent incidents, within the camps" per @DoD_IG

Details of #ISIS presence at #alHol, per @DoD_IG:

10,000 ISIS-affiliated family members, tw-thirds under the age of 12

2,000 foreign women (with kids) who renounced their citizenship

.@DefenseIntel tells @DoD_IG #ISIS activists continue to recruit & spread the group's ideology in the camps

DIA also cites #SDF sources as saying attacks on the cmap guards increased in Jan-March period, but @USAID said the situation had mostly stabilized

US op that killed #ISIS leader Abu Bakr al #Baghdadi having little impact in #Syria

"Baghdadi’s death did not result in any degradation of ISIS capabilities...likely retains an intact command & control structure, and a presence in rural regions" per @DoD_IG, citing @CJTFOIR