Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Baghdadi

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Its here - the ISW report warning that #ISIS is back in #Iraq & #Syria

From me with @thestudyofwar’s Brandon Wallace & Jason Zhou

Full report available online here: understandingwar.org/report/isiss-s…

Key points & graphics to follow
1/
#ISIS's "remnants" are much stronger than al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI/ISI) was when US forces withdrew from Iraq in 2011

ISIS has ~30K fighters. AQI had ~1K

ISIS has relatively intact leadership; AQIs was decimated

This chart gives a rough overall comparison (sources in report)
2/
ISIS's second comeback could be worse than its resurgence from 2012-2014

Our report explains how #ISIS likely already has the capacity to seize an urban center in #Iraq or #Syria but is waiting to build strength & degrade enemies so it can seize many at once & hold them

3/
Read 19 tweets
12. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey,Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Jordan, Nato in Syria

#RegimeChange #FakeNews #FalseFlag #terrorism #SyriaInvasion #WarCrimes #CrimesAgainstChildren #CrimesAgainstHumanity
1. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Jordan, Nato in Syria 😉👇🏼
2. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Jordan, Nato in Syria 😉👇🏼
Read 84 tweets
1. Okay, so I have sat and thought for a bit. This is why I think the #Baghdadi video is worth talking about:
2. In terms of content, it is same old, same old—#IS isn’t defeated, the jihad continues, yada yada yada. However, it matters less for *what* Baghdadi says than for *how* Baghdadi says it.
3. First, because it is a video, it is a firm proof of life. If it was just a photograph of him, everyone would be crying “body double.” This means they can’t.
Read 13 tweets
Where is #Baghdadi ?
During the battle of #Mosul and as a result of the confusion of #ISIS , alBaghdadi spoke on the walkie talkie for 40 seconds, and almost this error leads to reveal his position, so did al-Baghdadi repeat the mistake in last video?
Al-Baghdadi appeared with three men whose faces were hidden, but wore a Shemagh "head cover" type used in eastern #Syria and western #Iraq popularly.
#ISIS #DierEzor #Raqqa #Hasaka #Mosul
Shemagh was not the only sign. In the video appeared the so-called "Arab Jalsah\mattress" , and a type of fabric was used, which is popular in the area #Mosul and north\east #Syria. This type of fabric was imported from #Aleppo, but factories have stopped production since 2013.
Read 5 tweets
BREAKING - #ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-#Baghdadi revealed in-person on new #ISIS video post-#Caliphate defeat in #Syria-#Iraq.

He appears in fine health, despite reports of severe injury.
I'm honestly unconvinced that this "diminished" point translates over to #ISIS & its existing/possible support base.

To me, this seems like a Western-centric point from which to analyze a video containing #Baghdadi's 2nd appearance in ~5yrs - a big deal.

#pt: For #ISIS, the struggle is theologically infinite - it isn't "defeated" or "prevented" by territorial losses.

e.g. #Trump's #Syria withdrawal announcement in #Dec '18 would have been perceived as a sign of eventual victory.

- #Baghdadi's video = fuel, not sign of weakness.
Read 10 tweets
1) BREAKING: #ISIS’ Furqan issues new video showing leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, marking the first time he is shown in a video since his July 2014 sermon at the Great Mosque in #Mosul
2) The video shows Baghdadi in a casual conversational setting with others (their faces blurred). He talks about war against "Crusaders" and about battles in #Baghouz #Syria being over, indicating that this interview was filmed somewhat recently.
3) In the vid, titled “In the Hospitality of the Emir of the Believers,” Baghdadi praises #SriLanka attackers over images of the attackers/attack (though not in the visual interview section; the audio may have thus been added via a later recording)--calling it revenge for Baghouz
Read 6 tweets
#SriLanka un des kamikazes dont la photo a circulé est le prêcheur Zahran Hashim connu pour son soutien à l’#EI // on remarque l’empreinte de la paume identique sur les deux photos cc @DanieleRaineri pr la photo devant bibliothèque
#SriLankaAttacks les 2 autres photos qui ont accompagné celle de Zahran Hashim
Ceci confirme ce qui était déjà un indice probant
Read 19 tweets

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