Thread by @srinicaps

@BytedanceTalk #ByteDance hopes of getting #PresidentTrump approval for its proposed deal with @Oracle #oracle appear to be dwindling by the day, judging by the blizzard of media reports about the debate going on inside the Trump administration.

That raises the prospect that ByteDance will have to accept a less favorable deal by yielding control of the app to some conglomeration of @Walmart #Walmart , Oracle, ByteDance’s U.S. #VentureCapital shareholders and maybe public investors in the U.S. through an #IPO

The #Chinese government might still block this option, killing the deal entirely. But assume for a moment they approve it. What happens to @tiktok_us #TikTok afterwards? To answer that, consider how you would have reacted if four months ago ByteDance had decided to sell TikTok...

for, say, $50 billion to a joint venture of Oracle and Walmart. It might have brought comparisons to News Corp’s purchase of MySpace (the early social network that was once more popular than Facebook). In other words, such a deal would almost certainly have heralded...

the end of a great app.

To be fair, given how popular #TikTok is, even #ByteDance might struggle to keep the app’s momentum going. But it’s not obvious that either #Oracle or #Walmart have the expertise to keep TikTok growing, given neither has social media DNA in their bones.