The National Intelligence Council NIC released its 2040 forecast, which will guide #Biden Admin. It begins noting how radically #COVI19 has shaken the world:
"Are the disruptions temporary or could the pandemic unleash new forces to shape the future?"
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dni.gov/files/ODNI/doc…
2/ "Much like the terrorist attacks of 11 Sept 2001, the #COVID19 #pandemic is likely to produce some changes that will be felt for years & change the way we live, work, & govern domestically & internationally. How great these will be, however, is very much in question."
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3/ The NIC 2040 forecasts 5 scenarios for the world's future.
In Scenario 1 democracy enjoys a revival all over the world, as #COVID19 shows that dictatorships & populist leaders fail their people in combatting the virus & #ClimateChange .
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4/ In Scenario 2 of the NIC2040 rpt the world is dangerously adrift, "In 2040, the international system is directionless, chaotic, and volatile as international rules & institutions are largely ignored by major powers such as China, regional players, and nonstate
actors."
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5/ In Scenario 3 of NIC2040 rpt key nations are political & economic competitors, but "The risk of major war is low & intl cooperation & tech innovation make global problems manageable over the near term for advanced economies, but longer term #climate challenges remain."
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6/In NIC2040 4th scenario, "the world is fragmented into several econom & security blocs of varying size & strength, centered on U.S., China, the EU, Russia & a few regional powers...focused on self-sufficiency & defense. Info flows w/in separate cyber-sovereign enclaves.."
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7/ and in its final scenario NIC2040 see "a global food catastrophe caused by #climate events & environmental degradation. Richer countries shift to help poorer ones...transition to low carbon economies through broad aid programs..."
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8/ No matter which NIC2040 scenario plays out over the next 19 years, we are, as a world community and as Americans, in for a bumpy ride.
washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
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