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Laurie Garrett Profile picture
@Laurie_Garrett
Apr 8, 2021 • 8 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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The National Intelligence Council NIC released its 2040 forecast, which will guide #Biden Admin. It begins noting how radically #COVI19 has shaken the world:
"Are the disruptions temporary or could the pandemic unleash new forces to shape the future?"
MORE
dni.gov/files/ODNI/doc…
2/ "Much like the terrorist attacks of 11 Sept 2001, the #COVID19 #pandemic is likely to produce some changes that will be felt for years & change the way we live, work, & govern domestically & internationally. How great these will be, however, is very much in question."
MORE
3/ The NIC 2040 forecasts 5 scenarios for the world's future.
In Scenario 1 democracy enjoys a revival all over the world, as #COVID19 shows that dictatorships & populist leaders fail their people in combatting the virus & #ClimateChange .
MORE
4/ In Scenario 2 of the NIC2040 rpt the world is dangerously adrift, "In 2040, the international system is directionless, chaotic, and volatile as international rules & institutions are largely ignored by major powers such as China, regional players, and nonstate
actors."
MORE
5/ In Scenario 3 of NIC2040 rpt key nations are political & economic competitors, but "The risk of major war is low & intl cooperation & tech innovation make global problems manageable over the near term for advanced economies, but longer term #climate challenges remain."
MORE
6/In NIC2040 4th scenario, "the world is fragmented into several econom & security blocs of varying size & strength, centered on U.S., China, the EU, Russia & a few regional powers...focused on self-sufficiency & defense. Info flows w/in separate cyber-sovereign enclaves.."
MORE
7/ and in its final scenario NIC2040 see "a global food catastrophe caused by #climate events & environmental degradation. Richer countries shift to help poorer ones...transition to low carbon economies through broad aid programs..."
MORE
8/ No matter which NIC2040 scenario plays out over the next 19 years, we are, as a world community and as Americans, in for a bumpy ride.
washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

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More from @Laurie_Garrett

Laurie Garrett Profile picture
Sep 23
Donald Trump is now addressed the UN General Assembly. He notes the teleprompter isn't working and, "whoever is responsible for this teleprompter is in big trouble."
He reads from printed text on the podium.
"This is the Golden Age of America." Image
2/ His remarks open by listing his accomplishments domestically since taking office. "In my first term I built the best economy in the history of the world...and this time it's even better."
"The number of illegal aliens entering our country has reached zero...If you come illegally into the U-S you're going to jail...or perhaps further. You know what that means."Image
3/Trump at UNGA
Says the U.S. was a laughing stock, but not anymore. My administration has negotiated one historic trade agreement after another."
I have ended 7 un-endable wars. I ended 7 wars. " Cambodia/Thailand, Congo/Rwanda, Armenia/Azerbaijian, Albania/Kosovo.
"And I did it in just 7 months. There's never been anything like it."
The UN "did nothing. I never even received a phone call from the U-N."Image
Read 18 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
Sep 22
Canadian PM Mark Carney is addressing the Council on Foreign Relations right now. He opened by describing the very positive relationship Canada and the US shared -- until now.
And looking at Trump impacts on the global geopolitical landscape.
"So, what do we do about it? We think we can thrive for three reasons"
1.) we have what the world wants:
- energy
- we are top % in world's critical minerals
- we are a leading developer of AI and quantum talent
- we have sophisticated pension funds and investors
- we have a govt that can act decisively
2.) Our public square is loud, diverse and free
3.) We recognize what's going on. A rupture. Sharp change.
- build strength at home, cut taxes, increased X-province trade, doubling defense spending, especially in AI
- defend out values
- build alliances abroad
- diverse trade agreements, espec. w/EU
- joining SAFE -- EU defense
- comprehensive approach w/Mexico trade
- we are largest contributor per capita to Ukraine
- support 2-state solution in ME
- forming buyers' clubs for REEs & critical minerals

MORE
Carney/2
"Old Multilateralism" -- how we used to work.
Now, substantial change underway, espec. for REEs, essential minerals, energy.
When you think about Canada, think of a strong soveriegn nation.
We understand what's going on. We have the resources the world needs. We're a reliable partner...with any part of the world.
Carney/3
LIVE now Carney is talking on stage w/CFR Pres. Froman
Q - 2/3rds Canadian population lives w/in 100 km of US border -- how much can you reorient economy?
Carney: 1st, recog. the need to do it. To be masters in our own house.
Don't want to look at Truth Social daily to see changes in US poilicy
MORE
Read 21 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
Aug 31
On Friday, when most of America wasn't paying attention, heading out for the holidays, Trump signed an Exec Order transferring ALL control over foreign aid from State to OMB.
This will destroy American overseas programs. Here's why (MORE)whitehouse.gov/presidential-a…
2/US programs for everything from #famine relief & #HIV care to safe pregnancy efforts & building electricity grids have won America friends in the world & saved 100s of millions of lives. They were nested in the State Dept so our diplomats on the ground can oversee them.
MOREImage
Image
3/ By moving foreign aid out of State & into OMB, programs for saving starving children, rescuing families from catastrophes, teaching kids to read, stopping epidemics -- ALL of that now falls under the control of Russell Vought.
Who is Vought?
MOREtrumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/people/russell…Image
Read 22 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
Jul 19, 2024
As #JoeBiden hunkered down in Delaware & Party leaders scrambled to figure out how #Democrats can win the election, I kept thinking of March 31, 1968. On that day the White House put out word of a mysterious speech LBJ would give from the Oval Office.
MORE
@BeschlossDCImage
2/
 In a world without Internet or 24-hour news cycles the buzz in Washington about the event failed to reach the American people until that night. America assumed LBJ’s address would be about the widening war in Vietnam. On live television, a very haggard-looking LBJ began:
MORE Image
3/
 "Good evening, my fellow Americans:
Tonight, I want to speak to you of peace in Vietnam and Southeast Asia.
No other question so preoccupies our people. No other dream so absorbs the 250 million human beings who live in that part of the world."
MORE Image
Read 16 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
Jul 9, 2024
While #Trump claims no direct connection to #Project2025 it's clear han no #Republican in national power has denounced the Heritage Foundation 887-page manifesto. I put a few hours into scrutinizing the Project's plans for @HHSGov & health agencies. (pages 449-502)
🧵unfolds: Image
2/Health & Human Services @HHSGov must “respect for the sacred rights of conscience” for Federal workers & healthcare workers broadly who object to #Abortions contraception, gender reassignment & other issues.
“Radical actors inside & outside govt are promoting..."
MORE Image
3/ “...harmful identity politics that replaces biological sex w/subjective notions of 'gender identity' & bases a person’s worth on his or her race, sex, or other identities. This destructive dogma, under the guise of 'equity,' threatens American’s fundamental liberties..."
MORE Image
Read 17 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
Jul 5, 2024
When a society attacks its toiling scientists, ranking the opinions of quacks, religions & charlatans above those of scientific insight and discovery, it is a sorrowful time.
Scientists who have been persecuted for their work...
MORE
2/
 -Muhammad ibn Zakariyā Rāzī or Rhazes of Baghdad (860 - 932 AD) beaten into blindness for introducing medical advances from non-Arab countries
MOREImage
-Michael Servetus (1511-1553) made discoveries in blood circulation. Burned at the stake by Calvin in Geneva
-Henry Oldenburg (1619-1677) promoted sharing scientific insights, labelled a spy, held in the Tower of London
MOREImage
Image
Read 11 tweets

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