Thread by @DrEricDing

📍My god… the upgraded warning #B16172 variant (magenta) is surging so fast. Epidemiologists now estimate it is 60% faster than even #B117 UK/Kent variant, which is already 50% faster. If true, it could make it fastest transmission one to be found worldwide. Thread 🧵. #COVID19

2) #B1672 has become quite dominant in India 🇮🇳 sequenced samples in @GISAID data. And it is projected to take over further by June. Figure from @TWenseleers.

Some say it could be due to sampling, but Tom doesn’t think so because #B16171 wouldn’t be selectively withheld.

3) @TWenseleers used his methods from earlier paper to estimate the new #B16172 transmission being 60% fast than the U.K. Kent #B117 variant.

4) the Brazilian #P1 variant m, despite being 2x faster than original strain, would be actually slower than the #B16172 if put into head to heads transmission competition.

5) And now #B16172 is surging in the UK too. Someone poke Boris Johnson to wake up.

6) the new UK data on #B16172 surge from @sangerinstitute is reliable because it excludes travel sequenced cases and excludes screening.

UK data even suggested #B16172 could even by 2x faster (not just 60% faster from India 🇮🇳 data above) than the #B117!! Wow. 👀

7) The World Health Organization said that the coronavirus variant first identified in India last year is being classified as a variant of global concern, with some preliminary studies showing that it spreads more easily

8) Its surging across UK. #B16172 is the new variant that we faced with in addition to #P1.

9) #B1617 lineages are surging worldwide.

Nobody is safe until we are all vaccinate.

10) surging even in wealthy Singapore

11) To be clear, we think the #B16172 Indian VOC may be ~2.6x as fast as original strain, and 60% faster than #B117 from UK/Kent. #P1 is thought to be 2-2.5, but we haven’t seen P1 and B16172 sufficiently together in same place yet in a head to head comparison to know for sure.

12) yes the US has more vaccines than India. But we are seeing #B16172 rise even with high vaccinations in the UK. And again, not all vaxxed.

also THINK OF THE KIDS… tens of millions of kids aren’t vaccinated or even eligible yet… cough… #LongCovid @LongCovidKids… cough.

13) India variant #B16172 in the UK. Anything out of the ordinary? No? Move along.

(Ht @Dr_D_Robertson )

14) Bad news from UK 🇬🇧 SAGE govt report on the #B16172. It’s blazing fast. https://t.co/m36AINf9oO