Thread by @IndianExpress

All indications from the coronavirus numbers in India in the last two weeks suggest that the second wave of infections may already have reached a peak, or will peak in the next few days, but end may still be far away.
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After reaching a high of 4.14 lakh last Thursday, the daily cases has dropped significantly in the last 1 week. This is not happening for the first time. After crossing 4 lakh mark for the first time on April 30, the case count had gone down for a few days, before jumping again.

#Maharashtra, which at one point was contributing more than 60% of daily cases, certainly seems to be in a declining phase now. The decline in Maharashtra is likely to have the biggest impact on the national curve.
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The biggest glimmer of hope is coming from #UttarPradesh. The state has the potential to report even more cases than Maharashtra. However, for more than one week, now, the state’s daily tally has remained well below 30,000, and is showing signs of declining.

A large part of this has to do with the fact that the number of daily recoveries has now caught up with the daily case count. The recoveries tail the case count by two weeks.

The case count in #TamilNadu has crossed 30,000 while #AndhraPradesh and #WestBengal have breached the 20,000 mark. All these states are in the ascendant phase right now.

The defining characteristic of the #secondwave is the high positivity rate. India’s overall positivity rate remained 5-6% during the first wave;in some small phases it rose to over 12%. In the second phase, positivity rate has exceeded 20%. In some states, it even went past 40%.

However, the observed stability in the positivity rate could also be a result of India’s testing capacity having reached its limit. The country’s testing numbers have hardly been able to keep pace with the increasing infection.
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There has been a tenfold rise in the daily count of deaths in the last 45 days. But as the case count has stabilised in the last two weeks, a further rise in number of deaths is getting arrested.

It had taken five months for the cases to come down from a high of 98,000 a day during the first wave, to about 10,000 a day. This time, India would be starting at a much higher peak. That would mean that the downward journey of second wave could be that much longer.
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The daily count is moving up and down, so that we are not even sure whether cases in India have reached a peak. That would mean that India could be reporting a very large number of cases, two to three lakhs a day, for several weeks to come. bit.ly/3hunKvx
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