Thread by @DrEricDing

Troubling—the worst variant to date, the #DeltaVariant is now the new fastest growing variant in US. This is the so-called “Indian” variant #B16172 that is ravaging UK 🇬🇧 despite high vaccinations because it has immune evasion properties. Here is why it’s trouble—🧵. #COVID19

2) We are expecting the #DeltaVariant to continue growing in the US, outpacing all other variants just like it has in India 🇮🇳 and UK 🇬🇧, and become dominant in US by end of July, if not earlier.

Here is the prediction track - via @TWenseleers from @GISAID data.

3) here was how it overtook everything in the UK 🇬🇧— it will happen soon in the US as well.

4) the #DeltaVariant #B16172 is worrisome because study after study shows it has one of the worst antibody neutralization profiles against the current vaccines. Here it is against the Pfizer vaccine - one of the best vaccines for variants to date. 1st dose very little effect.

5) First dose alone wholly inadequate against #B16172 #DeltaVariant, in contrast to original strain (wild type)

6) Also notice how neutralization is much weaker in the elderly—but #B16172 #DeltaVariant is so bad that the neutralization in young adults (~20s) for Delta is even lower than neutralization in the elderly against the old strain! With Delta, you start like an 60-70 year old! 👀

7) Keep in mind that the #DeltaVariant #B16172 has been observed to also attack kids more than before. Here is Singapore’s warning.

8) this is what #B16172 #DeltaVariant is doing to kids in NW England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿- many kids under 12 also not eligible for vaccines yet.

9) Despite UK being one of the most vaccinated countries…. @IndependentSage experts are still warning about a surge with the #DeltaVariant

10) why? Because the latest UK expert report says the #DeltaVariant leads to ~2.5x more hospitalizations than the #B117 #AlphaVariant. And B117 Alpha itself is more severe than original strain too!!

11) thus how much worse is #DeltaVariant? if Delta has ~2.5x ⬆️ hospitalization risk versus #B117 #AlphaVariant, which is 64% more severe than original earlier strain. Then 1.64*2.5= #Delta could have *4.1x* higher risk of hospitalization vs original! 👀

12) Does anyone honestly think the US or any country is going to do that much better than the UK 🇬🇧 which is also heavily vaccinated? Because this is #DeltaVariant grow speed in the Uk 🇬🇧

13) what’s coming next for the UK 🇬🇧. Let’s not follow Boris Johnson’s footsteps

14) But but but, don’t we have good vaccines? Yes, but vaccination rates are not uniformly high everywhere in the Us. The conservative South has serious issues with low vaccination rates. Very low… see thread 🧵

15) That said, #DeltaVariant #B16172 is potentially tricker yielding a substantial jump down on the virus neutralization ladder according to studies. Because it has a lower starting neutralization, the efficacy drop can be substantial. Hence why 1 dose isn’t enough.

16) So what is the vaccine efficacy against #B16172 #DeltaVariant? It’s just 60% for AstraZeneca, while 88% of Pfizer in one non-trial study. However, 1 dose (of both averaged) is just 33%. And many countries are just 1 dose vaccinated.

17) But is that enough against the #DeltaVariant? Well there’s only one country in Europe were Delta is dominant? Hint - it’s the one with the surge in cases, and also rising hospitalizations….

18) And given we know the #DeltaVariant is both more transmissible and severe (see above), the question is - is it more severe also in kids? It’s an open debate, but there are many reports from India 🇮🇳 that the #DeltaVariant might be….

19) And if I have to hear one more person say “But but but kids don’t transmit”… they are dead wrong. Oh and kids also get #LongCovid too.

20) I feel that ignoring the risks in kids has been one of the biggest blunders of many Covid denialist and minimizer scientists (after ignoring airborne). So many scientists ignored the risks in kids. History will remember who they are / were.

21) The #DeltaVariant is now causing an “exponential” rise in hospital admissions in the UK 🇬🇧— despite decent vaccination rates in UK. This means we can’t stop vaccinations until we hit 80% fully vaccinated. Until then we are vulnerable still as a society.

22) Dr Fauci agrees that 1 dose is not enough protection for the #DeltaVariant #B161712.

23) This is now the #DeltaVariant growing crisis in the UK 🇬🇧 and how they missed the creeping up numbers originally. Don’t let this happen in your country. Let UK and India be a lesson to all.

24) politicians often act too late. Scientists often too shy to shout from the roof tops early…. What you get is inaction by politicians & slow vocalization by scientists until too late.

We need to sometimes raise the alarm— because there is a critical need for early action.🙏

25) Today is a good day for the CDC to upgrade #DeltaVariant to VARIANT OF CONCERN status…