Thread by @rektcapital

The 21 Weekly Exponential Moving Average tends to be a vital reference point for #BTC

Keeping the 21 WEMA as support means $BTC will continue its Bull Market

Losing the 21 WEMA often means BTC will be entering a Bear Market

Here's a thread with my thoughts about the 21 WEMA:

1.

Historically, the 21 WEMA (green) supports a Bull Market uptrend for #BTC

Keeping this EMA as support on pullbacks has been vital to sustaining bullish momentum for $BTC

But there have been periods where the 21 WEMA has been briefly lost as support before being recovered:

2.

For example, #BTC lost the 21 WEMA as support in the 2012 & mid-2013 (red) Bull Markets

But $BTC quickly reclaimed the 21 WEMA as support to continue the Bull Trend (orange)

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3.

Of course, losing the 21 WEMA as support and then failing to reclaim it as support or confirming it as new resistance has preceded new #BTC Bear Markets (red)

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4.

Which is why #BTC needs to soon reclaim the 21 WEMA as support

It's really important that the 21 WEMA doesn't turn into resistance upon a $BTC recovery towards the low $40,000s (i.e. the price level where the 21 WEMA now resides)

#Crypto #Bitcoin

5.

What's interesting about the 21 WEMA is that is aligns perfectly with the bottom of the #BTC Wyckoff Distribution Range

That is, the 21 WEMA is a confluent resistance with the Wyckoff range

#Crypto #Bitcoin

6.

At the moment, the #BTC breakdown from the Wyckoff Distribution range is an unconfirmed breakdown

For $BTC to confirm the breakdown, it would need to breakout from this wedging structure (black) only to harshly reject from the bottom of the range to decline into Phase E

7.

A #BTC rejection from Wyckoff range bottom would not only validate the Wyckoff Schematic...

But it would also validate a historical tendency regarding the 21 WEMA

That is, whenever the 21 WEMA is lost as support & then turned into resistance - a new $BTC downtrend begins

8.

After all, the 21 WEMA is a confluent resistance with the Wyckoff range bottom

#BTC needs to break above the 21 WEMA & turn it back into a support to invalidate the Wyckoff Distribution range

Wyckoff Distribution Ranges have been invalidated before

9.

Now let's briefly turn our attention to the 50 Weekly Exponential Moving Average (50 WEMA, blue)

This EMA has figured as a vital source of support in #BTC Bull Markets as well

See my previous thread about why the 50 WEMA is worth keeping in mind:

10.

In short, the #BTC 21 WEMA was lost as support

But the $BTC 50 WEMA continues to hold as support...

#Crypto #Bitcoin

11.

This means that #BTC will likely see price compression as a result of these two converging EMAs

The 21 WEMA could act as resistance and the 50 WEMA will act as support to form a triangular market structure

This triangle will probably be $BTC's home for the coming weeks

12.

Price compression precedes immense volatility

So while continued consolidation inside this triangular market structure formed by the two EMAs lies in #BTC's future...

The consolidation won't go on for too long

$BTC will coil into the apex of this triangle

13.

How long #BTC will consolidate in the $33,000 - $42,000 area that is encapsulated by the two EMAs?

I doubt the consolidation will last until August

The more likely scenario for #Bitcoin leaving this triangle could be sometime in July

Price compression precedes volatility

14.

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