NSW Wild TBDs - status confirmed 🧵1/8
Each day ~30-40% of new cases are Wild TBD
Surveillance reports fill in the blanks but the data is 2-3 weeks old
Here's what they tell us ...
1. High Risk / Full Wild (daily) -
#COVID19nsw #covidnsw #COVID19Aus
2/8. These charts show data from 2 sources -
- Surveillance report (solid line)
- Daily announcements - pressers / tweets (Dashed line)
The solid line extends to 25/7 (latest date in surveillance reports)
The dashed line extends to today
2. Medium Risk / Part Wild (daily) -
3/8. Surveillance Reports categorise Wild data as follows:
- High risk
- Medium risk
- Low risk
These fit perfectly with the 3 categories we use:
- Full wild
- Part wild
- Isolation
3. Low Risk / Isolation (daily) -
4/8. What can we see?
The solid lines show us that once case interviews have been done, there are upwards revisions to all 3 categories
They're fairly evenly distributed
4. High + Medium Risk / Full + Part Wild (daily) -
5/8. So the fact that a case is Wild TBD doesn't mean it's more likely to be Wild
BUT ...
The charts above cover the period *before* Wild TBDs exploded
The chart below shows the period covered by surveillance reports so far
The next period has many more Wild TBDs -
6/8. Upshots / takeaways ...
For the time being, it seems safe / logical to think of the cases with Wild status confirmed as a fairly accurate sample
The distribution we *can* see is probably similar to the distribution down we *can't* see
7/8. For that reason, I'm going to include a sample analysis in the daily reporting
This should help us make an educated guess about the Wild TBDs
8/8. Of course, this could change
The next surveillance report will cover a period with many more Wild TBDs. When we see that, we'll know more
It should come out on Thursday
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