Thread by @BambroughKevin

Many Black Swans are circling over head like vultures ready to rip many industries apart.

A few 5am thoughts on:

#energycrisis #currencycrisis
#debtcrisis
#coal
#gas
#inflation
#blackswan

Coal generates nearly 40% of the world's electricity, close to its highest share in decades.

Thermal coal prices are spiking out of control all over the world. I’m some places doubling historic all time highs.

“Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel, accounting today for 23% of global primary energy demand and nearly a quarter of electricity generation”

Again natgas prices spiking out of control and taking power prices with it

Many parts of the world are critically short of coal at the moment. The coal industry was written off for dead by ESG investors despite we still rely on it to feed 40% of world power. Truly amazing exercise in stupidity. Perfect example of how shortsighted and unscientific we are

We we have ~65% of our global energy grid facing spiking input costs and in many places forced to reduce power output.

Many key industries taking a hit and some being forced to reduce production because of power shortages. Silicone and aluminum in China as an example

Coal also powers cement and refining / smelting of metals. Costs are going to go up for everything including wind turbines and solar panels. Plus we are scrambling to build metal intensive batteries for power storage for cars and utilities that rely on wind and solar

China is telling its banks to lend (basically saying what ever it takes) to utilities so they can try to buy coal and gas etc so they have supplies to get through the winter. Shanxi one of the biggest coal hub districts in the world is facing flooding and production issues.

Extreme weather, rains and possibly snow this winter will likely impact more coal regions and cause production problems that will now be front page news.

We will sound be hearing about financial blow ups as some energy traders get caught short or some producers get blown out

Energy hedging has both winners and losers and my bet is there’s gonna be some big losers. Along with many industry’s that will have difficult passing on the costs. And then we have the public outcry and price squeeze to contend with.

As people struggle to pay energy bills that will also dampen the economy.

Our governments are frankly fucking useless and ya know what they say. People get the governments they deserve

We collectively elect celebrities rather than thinkers,great speakers and presenters that know fuck all about the power industry and just read polls and hammer on talking points. The main stream media serves us up bullshit every day to trigger emotional responses and more viewers

These black swans will play out, I have no doubt there will be so much economic volatility because of the esg energy crisis.

I’ve done the math and have invested in #uranium because #nuclearpower is the only way out of this mess. 100% certain.

It’s total garbage to pretend that @elonmusk and others are going to save the world with electric cars when most good estimates say that will required a doubling of the electricity grid over 20 years. So much copper and metal required it’s mind boggling and frankly impossible.

But the auto industry is going to keep cranking out EV’s and we are gonna plug them in all over the world and they will be fueled mostly with coal and natgas. Until nuclear power takes over baseload. New nuclear power solutions are incredible and many can be factory built

Existing coal fired plants can be retrofitted and/or replaced with SMR nuclear tech. The #uranium industry is slow moving and a lagger of coal, gas and oil. But rest assured it’s gonna get lit and lit soon

Uranium supplies 11 percent of global power and there’s barely any inventory in the world. The industry is full of bear market minded folks that can’t see the forest through the trees. The uranium price will be going to all time highs in the next year or two max. Probably $200lb

But could easily spike to $500lb. Think of all the trillions of dollars at stake sloshing around in the global energy markets. Coal doubling its all time highs already in many parts of the world and so will #uranium

The best thing about the nuclear industry is that the #uranium price is only about 2-3% of the power price. So even if it 10 bagged to $400/lb the utilities will pay it and the power price rise as a result will extremely modest compared to what we are already seeing from coal gas

Sprott Physical Uranium Trust and a basket of junior miners / explorers are the best way to play what’s coming. I especially like the ones with infrastructure and no shitty low priced contracts that can potential squeeze them.

I’ve comment in the past month on my concern about investing in miners that have contracted more than they currently produce like $cco. This is a big part of the reason I have trouble recommending the uranium etfs. They all have large weighting’s in $cco

#urnm is the lowest weighting and also owns $u.un SPUT $SRUUF

I personally would recommend shorting out its ~12-13% $cco holding and buying more Sprott Uranium Trust for those that can short and also access $u.u $u.un $sruuf via their broker

There will be billions flowing to the #uranium sector soon and it’s small so it’s gonna get extremely volatile. Plus the more funds flow to $urnm the more it will bid up $u.un SPUT. When you buy Sprott uranium trust it issues shares and purchases physical uranium

Financial speculators and energy investors are about to do what the utility industry and our governments are too stupid to do. We are going to gobble up the uranium inventories and benefit from the necessary price rise that absolutely must happen

The #uranium industry currently can’t even produce what we consume each year. The it’s hard to say how many lbs are left floating around in the uranium market today but it’s quickly running out and the cupboard will soon be bare. Just $1bln will likely take the price to $200/lb

Currently the utilities (fuel buyers) are playing a game they’ve played for 10 years of the bear market. They are all promising not to buy spot market uranium lbs and they are instead scrambling to send out RFP’s to uranium producers

They avoid buying spot sucker weak handed producers into contracts that often have price caps and all discount future price rises. But the jig is up. The spot market is being drained and the coming squeeze is a mathematical certainty. So get long and be strong!

Hope you all profit while funding the only real solution to the climate change crisis and make enough funds to offset the crazy inflation that is most certainly coming. Remember all the gov officials can do is print more money

The central banks and global governments will be printing and bailing out the utilities and its only going to drive prices higher. They can’t print coal or natgas and it’s gonna be a long crazy winter.