Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #blackswan

Most recents (24)

1/17-💭What we're facing is a #TRUST crisis rather than a #BalanceSheet crisis. There’s been a lot of amalgamation between #BTFP and #QE, but they are different, and their consequences will be different as well. My thoughts 👇
#CreditSuisseBankruptcy #BankingCrisis #AllianceBlock
2/17- 🏦 #BTFP (1):
- Involves banks depositing HTM bonds and AFS securities at the Fed as collateral against borrowing the At Par Value for 1 year
- Funds are likely to be used for immediate liquidity needs, backstopping bank runs and making depositors whole
3/17- 🏦 #BTFP (2) : Unlikely to result in new credit being extended, and banks are likely to tighten lending standards until the dust settles
- Velocity of money in the banking system should instead decrease, offsetting any increase in reserves
Read 17 tweets
1/ Bear markets are notorious for brutal fakeouts, which is why it's critical to identify targets and invalidations.

Here are key levels to watch in both directions.📉📈

#BTC analysis 🧵

More from Material Indicators here...
2/In bear markets everyone is looking for a relief rally to exit or add short. Those are good strategies if you can tell the difference between a fakeout and a breakout. #FOMO + failure to identify invalidation levels are why so many people get rekt. #BullTrap #ShortSqueeze
3/ Identifying targets is easy. Determining breakout or fakeout is more challenging, and while there are no sure things, there are some things we can look at to help mitigate risk of getting trapped. To get some perspective, let's start with an ultra wide macro view of #BTC
Read 17 tweets
🧵/1. Looking at the Spot Exchanges (@coinbase, @binance) volume profile throughout 2021-2022, the 30K-35K price range has been a very strong demand area. A #BlackSwan " event aside, this range could be this bear market's bottom.
🧵/2. In 2018's bear market, which lasted 11 months, the floor price was ~ $6.4K involving multiple #DeadCatBounce with up to 80% rebounds. During this bearish phase, the % of supply in loss grew +20% due to the BUY/HODL at prices above ~$6.4K.
🧵/3. Assuming the second ATH was a dead cat bouns in a bear market, so far % of supply in loss has grown +6% while we had a +130% rebound to $69K. Therefore, a lengthier bear market is not out of the picture.
Read 7 tweets
Many Black Swans are circling over head like vultures ready to rip many industries apart.

A few 5am thoughts on:

#energycrisis #currencycrisis
Coal generates nearly 40% of the world's electricity, close to its highest share in decades.

Thermal coal prices are spiking out of control all over the world. I’m some places doubling historic all time highs.
“Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel, accounting today for 23% of global primary energy demand and nearly a quarter of electricity generation”

Again natgas prices spiking out of control and taking power prices with it
Read 28 tweets
The @Conservatives were warned for years about the risk of a novel virus yet did nothing to prepare the UK for what was known to be a high national security risk. This Thread brings together the documents and exercise's that no10 had at their disposal.
In 2007 the UK held a pandemic exercise that predated #OperationCygnus code named Winter willow, which put in place everything needed for a #coronavirusuk outbreak! Austerity depleted #PPE EX, Cygnus only exposed how badly!
Read 13 tweets

#2NE1 Image
Read 273 tweets
A couple of days ago, Skallas wrote that true @nntaleb fans don’t quote his ideas all the time, but instead apply them to everyday life. A childish discussion, but I felt the need to say something about it because the “Taleb obsession” theme recurs often. This is my story. 👇
A few years ago, my father decided to begin manufacturing a liqueur made out of rose petals. In order to realize his idea, he took a couple of loans from the bank and became indebted to his business partners.
He had a good concept, but he failed to anticipate one small thing – that he would pass away. One afternoon while we were sitting at the table, he just died. At 53 years of age, it took only 3 minutes. An aneurism. #BlackSwan
Read 17 tweets
[Dance Analysis Thread - Black Swan Duet MMA 2020]

This exquisite performance by Jimin and Jungkook was breathtaking. It required trust, strength, grace and above all teamwork. Let’s take a look at how all those elements combined to make art.
#JIMIN #Jungkook #BlackSwan @BTS_twt
First of all, what an insane entrance! The cascade of falling dancers is so perfectly timed, not one off beat or out of place. The dancers settle into the misty waters...and then Jimin turns around with dramatic flair to start his dance. #JIMIN
With both his arms and legs held by other dancers, Jimin swoops forward to take flight. As the dancers let go of his legs, he arches his back and uses his core muscles to bring his legs up and under him. It takes tremendous strength and control. #JIMIN
Read 25 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 10/09/2020…
Density-dependent vs. Frequency-dependent Disease Transmission | Parasite Ecology…

#disease #transmission
Great Barrington Declaration and Petition

#PandemicResponse #PublicHealth
Read 6 tweets
Not sure how on the radar this is for you but the #Chinaflooding season starts in 13 days and it’s already a catastrophe.

An interesting analysis of the situation.

#msm not covering this.

@paul_furber @paulmuaddib61

Read 145 tweets
2) Zoom capped us at 100. Sorry. Anyone know how to let more in? HK, Norway, Belgium, Bolivia, Argentina ....
3) says it all
Read 16 tweets
Saturday night self quarantine thoughts on the 2 crisis in 2008 and 2020 and how well the world was prepared in between ...

From #GFC to #covid19
2008 was a shock due to excessive household debt in the US, and excessive risk taking by under capitalised shadow banks (broker dealers like Lehman which werent deposit taking institution but pure investment banks)
The bigger issue was interconnected ness of the financial system
Banks, Mortgage Finance Companies (Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac) in the US along with insurers were too big to fail #TBTF and when the credit markets froze the whole world got a shock ...

Since then a lot of rules have changed and many countries have reacted differently
Read 17 tweets
Whole lot of hot takes out there around #COVID19, foresight, and the #BlackSwan concept | Dear readers, I present to you...the hottest of hot takes: #coronavirus both "is and is not" a black swan, & this is the most reasonable, rigorous, & responsible view
But first, yes...foresight actually works! And not because it can help you "predict" the future, but precisely because it can help you understand complex phenomena and, at best, spot "emerging issues." See: &
And, the folks at @CSIS struck gold:… Unfortunate use of the word "predict," which literally means "say before" & should be banished from the vocabulary of all futurists. Great stuff from @BryanAlexander here:…
Read 22 tweets
The #CoronaVirus or #Covid19 is a classic #BlackSwan event.

No one could see it coming. (Ok @BillGates did highlight risk of a pandemic - but realistically not many planned for this)

Such a chaotic event is catastrophic for those who are #Fragile,
A downturn for #Robust
Good for #Antifragile

(Channelling my inner NNT)
What is fragility?

As per @nntaleb checklist

- too much concentration of power (can’t talk back to authority with honest feedback)
- one trick pony (export one commodity)
- too much leverage (financial or over optimised supply chain)
- experience of previous crisis
Read 24 tweets
I think this is getting to be a fit case to think about *who* should be paranoid. And to what degree

As an analogy, perimeter security/guards are EXPECTED to be paranoid/hypervigilant, their reporting/control systems attuned to that. Someone leading that system is expected ... +
... to be able to discriminate between levels of threats and take appropriate action. Including raising of a general ALARM.

The protected, OTOH, are expected to ease off - because they have someone to be paranoid on their behalf. Why have these systems evolved this way? +
There's a significant cost to triggering a general ALARM each time a guard hears a rustle outside the fence. But, ignoring it could - in a #BlackSwan case, end up the perimeter being overrun.

Which means that the system affords a buffer - via IMMEDIATE response. +
Read 9 tweets
A Bull Market and the Bear – Dow and S&P 500 #TechnicalAnalysis Part 3 - #Coronavirus articles in Asian financial media launched today's stock market plunge- by @TraderStef for @CrushTheStreet #2019nCoV #SARS 2.0 #Dow $DIA #SP500 $SPY #StockCharts…
@CrushTheStreet #2019nCoV #SARS 2.0 #Dow $DIA #SP500 $SPY #StockCharts - The coronavirus is just starting to have an impact on the globe’s #economy and politics…
Read 22 tweets
Silly Little Trivia: Literal choreography in Black Swan

The male dancer is "under six feet" at "Oh that would be my first death"

@BTS_twt ImageImageImage
@BTS_twt This was supposed to be a stupid post about a potential visual pun (it may or may not be what they intended but as a pun-dit I can take it no other way🤣🤣) but now that I'm looking for it I do think I can see some of the lyrics in the choreography so heck, I'll continue
@BTS_twt Usual disclaimer that I'm not a dancer. Usually I feel I'm in relatively safe ground because it's not modern dance and the choreo can be quite literal at times, but this time it IS modern dance and I have no idea if there are moves that are oft associated with certain meanings...
Read 18 tweets
#BlackSwan #BTSIsComing @BTS_twt 'Black Swan' description on MelOn:

"'Black Swan' is about BTS entering the deep inner side of themselves and facing their hidden shadows as artists.
The motif of 'Black Swan''s creation is dancer Martha Graham's quote "A dancer dies twice - once when they stop dancing, and this first death is the more painful." It expresses the fear they have as artists of the moment they can't stand on the stage anymore how a dancer dies
the first time when they stop dancing. Through 'Black Swan', BTS says that the more one makes music, if music can no longer make them feel touched or excited, they will face a death like that. But whenever that happens, one will hear the voice of another ego of theirs coming
Read 5 tweets
Tim Montgomerie is going to advise the government on social justice.
Let's take a look at his past record, shall we?
(@SebastianEPayne, in case it might interest you...)
@SebastianEPayne @ByDonkeys there might be a few gems that might interest you here.
Let's start with this.
Note that "best thinkers" may not be the "best achievers"
Read 21 tweets
Good morning!😀Trust you are well and enjoying this Saturday morning. Deflation is developing in economy. Signs are very clear. Black swan will appear at some point. Stay tuned for a heads-up on my perspectives on market #HZupdates
#Copper sets the direction for real economy. My EW-model for Copper sets target A or more likely B to be reached some time in late 2021 or early 2022. Copper = Real economy. This is a pot. timeline for the total duration of the coming crisis (deflation & stagflation) #HZupdates
Zooming in on #Copper, we have seen the expected development this week. Break has been confirmed by small retest and acceleration. I think we will see further downside develop soon - but cannot rule out a pot. 2nd retest. The outlook for Copper is deflationary #HZupdates
Read 12 tweets
Good morning all! 🙂 Morning in Copenhagen - listening to Ludovico while I'm updating analyses and family sleeps. Fantastic piece of music: #AllisGood
Time for some #HZupdates. Let's take a look at the market from the way I see it. Where is that deflation, I have been forecasting? Did CBs succeed to do their magic and eliminate that threat? What about the Kondratiev's winter - over/done? Stay tuned! 🙂
AUDUSD is inflation gauge. Rally=inflation up; Decline=inflation down. LT perspective looks like this. Decline in 2008 = wave A. Rally up to 2011 = wave B. We have since been in wave C. Wave 5 will take us to ~0.5. Note the horizontal line. When this goes -->free fall #HZupdates
Read 28 tweets
Aus #SPD Sicht könnte das Platzen der #Groko der rettende Strohalm sein, sie könnten auf ein #Links-#Links-#Grünlinks hoffen, mit einem Messias #Habeck. An den Märkten könnte es ein #BlackSwan Ereignis auslösen ab 2020 hätten wir dann unsere #LehmanPleite
Read 26 tweets
El mundo del cine y sus increíbles maravillas. Abrimos hilo sobre hechos, curiosidades y datos de cine que tanto fascinan. ¡Vamos allá!
#Cine #curiosidades #elMundoDelCine #hilo #DeshilachandoCine
En los discursos de aceptación de los Oscars, se le ha dado a Steven Spielberg las gracias más que a dios. Aquí están las estadísticas que a quienes se le han dado más las gracias con una estatuilla en la mano.
#Cine #Spielberg #elMundoDelCine #hilo #DeshilachandoCine #Oscars
La leyenda urbana de que todos los relojes en Pulp Fiction están parados a las 4:20 es falsa. Algunos sí, pero no todos ni mucho menos. Hay relojes importantes en la trama que ni de cerca.
#Cine #PulpFiction #elMundoDelCine #hilo #DeshilachandoCine #Tarantino
Read 126 tweets
What does 'The Black Swan' really imply? What is that 'risky' event which Nasim Taleb refers to in his book? Unfortunately there are plenty of case studies available for Indian Investors. Sharing one such hair-raising development in a listed company: 1/5
Mumbai Municipality apparently has asked Bombay Exhibition Centre operated by a listed company NESCO to immediately stop conducting exhibitions on complaints by local residents regarding traffic congestion on Western Express Highway. 2/5
This exhibition centre brings millions of business travellers every year from all over the country and abroad to Mumbai and has over the years paid 100s of crores in taxes to government. 3/5
Read 6 tweets

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