Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #blackswan

Most recents (22)

200 Best Thriller Films (World Cinema)
#OldBoy (2013) #Triangle (2009) #Psycho (1960) #Seven (1995) #TheSilenceoftheLambs (1991) #Identity (2001)
#TheWailing (2016) #Inception (2010) #Interstellar (2014) #FightClub (1999) #TaxiDriver (1976) #Kalifornia (1993)
#ShutterIsland (2010) #Perfume: The Story of a Murderer (2006) #Memento (2000) #Hannibal (2001)
#Insomnia (2002) #TheDeparted (2006) #SleepTight (2011) #Marshland (2014) #TheHiddenFace (2011)
#Julia's Eyes (2010) #TheSkinILiveIn (2011)
#Kidnapped (2010) #Jacob's Ladder (1990)
#Memento (2000) #Forgotten (2017) #Dunkirk (2017)
#Following (1998) #EternalSunshineoftheSpotlessMind (2004) #TheFountain (2006) #DarkCity (1998) #Primer (2004) #Orphan (2009) #PhoneBooth (2002) #Split (2016) #TheSixthSense (1999) #RunLolaRun (1998)
#ConfessionofMurder (2012)
Read 16 tweets
Not sure how on the radar this is for you but the #Chinaflooding season starts in 13 days and it’s already a catastrophe.

An interesting analysis of the situation.

#msm not covering this.

@paul_furber @paulmuaddib61

Read 145 tweets
2) Zoom capped us at 100. Sorry. Anyone know how to let more in? HK, Norway, Belgium, Bolivia, Argentina ....
3) says it all
Read 16 tweets
Why this ongoing crash is unique, far outweighing the 2008 crisis : A statistical study
( purely statistical analysis of historical PE data, not the causes of each selloff)
( My eyes popped out when I saw this )
In the empirical sciences the so-called three-sigma rule of thumb expresses a conventional heuristic that nearly all values are taken to lie within three standard deviations of the mean, and thus it is empirically useful to treat 99.7% probability as near certainty.
Read and understand this in detail :…
Read 10 tweets
Saturday night self quarantine thoughts on the 2 crisis in 2008 and 2020 and how well the world was prepared in between ...

From #GFC to #covid19
2008 was a shock due to excessive household debt in the US, and excessive risk taking by under capitalised shadow banks (broker dealers like Lehman which werent deposit taking institution but pure investment banks)
The bigger issue was interconnected ness of the financial system
Banks, Mortgage Finance Companies (Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac) in the US along with insurers were too big to fail #TBTF and when the credit markets froze the whole world got a shock ...

Since then a lot of rules have changed and many countries have reacted differently
Read 17 tweets
Whole lot of hot takes out there around #COVID19, foresight, and the #BlackSwan concept | Dear readers, I present to you...the hottest of hot takes: #coronavirus both "is and is not" a black swan, & this is the most reasonable, rigorous, & responsible view
But first, yes...foresight actually works! And not because it can help you "predict" the future, but precisely because it can help you understand complex phenomena and, at best, spot "emerging issues." See: &
And, the folks at @CSIS struck gold:… Unfortunate use of the word "predict," which literally means "say before" & should be banished from the vocabulary of all futurists. Great stuff from @BryanAlexander here:…
Read 22 tweets
Getting a lot of questions over DM broadly on a few topics , majority questions are within these few topics. Using this thread to answer probably 95% of those queries
1. I have bought X at 100 in cash , now 50. Should I average , should I hold , should I get out ? ( X = any stock name )
Ans : I have no idea what will happen to these individual stocks . Even if you don't book loses , it's still a loss . Averaging is not advised
2. What are the stocks which can be bought ?
Ans: Again , I have no idea . We are truly in a #BlackSwan event , forecasting what happens here is impossible
Read 13 tweets
After my tweet about my offer to talk to anyone looking for support, had received around 250+ DMs from traders. I have covered/answered/discussed with majority of them.

All at loss of varying degrees between 20-70% of capital, a few in net negative.
These are the common mistakes they did.( I hope this serves as a guideline on #WhatNotToDo in trading)
The mistakes may sound cliche, but these are facts
Deliveries/futures traders
1. Did not have an initial stoploss
2. Held on to losers simply based on hope ( no data/charts)
3. Averaged all the way down ( cash, futures)
Read 7 tweets
The #CoronaVirus or #Covid19 is a classic #BlackSwan event.

No one could see it coming. (Ok @BillGates did highlight risk of a pandemic - but realistically not many planned for this)

Such a chaotic event is catastrophic for those who are #Fragile,
A downturn for #Robust
Good for #Antifragile

(Channelling my inner NNT)
What is fragility?

As per @nntaleb checklist

- too much concentration of power (can’t talk back to authority with honest feedback)
- one trick pony (export one commodity)
- too much leverage (financial or over optimised supply chain)
- experience of previous crisis
Read 24 tweets
I think this is getting to be a fit case to think about *who* should be paranoid. And to what degree

As an analogy, perimeter security/guards are EXPECTED to be paranoid/hypervigilant, their reporting/control systems attuned to that. Someone leading that system is expected ... +
... to be able to discriminate between levels of threats and take appropriate action. Including raising of a general ALARM.

The protected, OTOH, are expected to ease off - because they have someone to be paranoid on their behalf. Why have these systems evolved this way? +
There's a significant cost to triggering a general ALARM each time a guard hears a rustle outside the fence. But, ignoring it could - in a #BlackSwan case, end up the perimeter being overrun.

Which means that the system affords a buffer - via IMMEDIATE response. +
Read 9 tweets
A Bull Market and the Bear – Dow and S&P 500 #TechnicalAnalysis Part 3 - #Coronavirus articles in Asian financial media launched today's stock market plunge- by @TraderStef for @CrushTheStreet #2019nCoV #SARS 2.0 #Dow $DIA #SP500 $SPY #StockCharts…
@CrushTheStreet #2019nCoV #SARS 2.0 #Dow $DIA #SP500 $SPY #StockCharts - The coronavirus is just starting to have an impact on the globe’s #economy and politics…
Read 22 tweets
Silly Little Trivia: Literal choreography in Black Swan

The male dancer is "under six feet" at "Oh that would be my first death"

@BTS_twt ImageImageImage
@BTS_twt This was supposed to be a stupid post about a potential visual pun (it may or may not be what they intended but as a pun-dit I can take it no other way🤣🤣) but now that I'm looking for it I do think I can see some of the lyrics in the choreography so heck, I'll continue
@BTS_twt Usual disclaimer that I'm not a dancer. Usually I feel I'm in relatively safe ground because it's not modern dance and the choreo can be quite literal at times, but this time it IS modern dance and I have no idea if there are moves that are oft associated with certain meanings...
Read 18 tweets
#BlackSwan #BTSIsComing @BTS_twt 'Black Swan' description on MelOn:

"'Black Swan' is about BTS entering the deep inner side of themselves and facing their hidden shadows as artists.
The motif of 'Black Swan''s creation is dancer Martha Graham's quote "A dancer dies twice - once when they stop dancing, and this first death is the more painful." It expresses the fear they have as artists of the moment they can't stand on the stage anymore how a dancer dies
the first time when they stop dancing. Through 'Black Swan', BTS says that the more one makes music, if music can no longer make them feel touched or excited, they will face a death like that. But whenever that happens, one will hear the voice of another ego of theirs coming
Read 5 tweets

lets get this going - will be adding to this over the evening

Gee - someone is pretty bearish #putcalls

NOT ONLY that #CNBS is warning of a #blackswan because of their concerns about put option activity

AAII Bulls are still amazingly tepid... /2
on the shorter-term AAII Bulls are starting to reach a more elevated level BUT this is still low vs history /3
Read 67 tweets
Tim Montgomerie is going to advise the government on social justice.
Let's take a look at his past record, shall we?
(@SebastianEPayne, in case it might interest you...)
@SebastianEPayne @ByDonkeys there might be a few gems that might interest you here.
Let's start with this.
Note that "best thinkers" may not be the "best achievers"
Read 21 tweets
Good morning!😀Trust you are well and enjoying this Saturday morning. Deflation is developing in economy. Signs are very clear. Black swan will appear at some point. Stay tuned for a heads-up on my perspectives on market #HZupdates
#Copper sets the direction for real economy. My EW-model for Copper sets target A or more likely B to be reached some time in late 2021 or early 2022. Copper = Real economy. This is a pot. timeline for the total duration of the coming crisis (deflation & stagflation) #HZupdates
Zooming in on #Copper, we have seen the expected development this week. Break has been confirmed by small retest and acceleration. I think we will see further downside develop soon - but cannot rule out a pot. 2nd retest. The outlook for Copper is deflationary #HZupdates
Read 12 tweets
Good morning all! 🙂 Morning in Copenhagen - listening to Ludovico while I'm updating analyses and family sleeps. Fantastic piece of music: #AllisGood
Time for some #HZupdates. Let's take a look at the market from the way I see it. Where is that deflation, I have been forecasting? Did CBs succeed to do their magic and eliminate that threat? What about the Kondratiev's winter - over/done? Stay tuned! 🙂
AUDUSD is inflation gauge. Rally=inflation up; Decline=inflation down. LT perspective looks like this. Decline in 2008 = wave A. Rally up to 2011 = wave B. We have since been in wave C. Wave 5 will take us to ~0.5. Note the horizontal line. When this goes -->free fall #HZupdates
Read 28 tweets
Aus #SPD Sicht könnte das Platzen der #Groko der rettende Strohalm sein, sie könnten auf ein #Links-#Links-#Grünlinks hoffen, mit einem Messias #Habeck. An den Märkten könnte es ein #BlackSwan Ereignis auslösen ab 2020 hätten wir dann unsere #LehmanPleite
Read 26 tweets
El mundo del cine y sus increíbles maravillas. Abrimos hilo sobre hechos, curiosidades y datos de cine que tanto fascinan. ¡Vamos allá!
#Cine #curiosidades #elMundoDelCine #hilo #DeshilachandoCine
En los discursos de aceptación de los Oscars, se le ha dado a Steven Spielberg las gracias más que a dios. Aquí están las estadísticas que a quienes se le han dado más las gracias con una estatuilla en la mano.
#Cine #Spielberg #elMundoDelCine #hilo #DeshilachandoCine #Oscars
La leyenda urbana de que todos los relojes en Pulp Fiction están parados a las 4:20 es falsa. Algunos sí, pero no todos ni mucho menos. Hay relojes importantes en la trama que ni de cerca.
#Cine #PulpFiction #elMundoDelCine #hilo #DeshilachandoCine #Tarantino
Read 126 tweets
#Bitcoin is bigger than all the companies that try to capitalise on its #blockchain #technology.

#Bitcoin + #IoT + #DeepLearning will transform the global political & financial system without permission.

#blockchain #LightningNetwork #fintech #blockchain #disruptiveinnovation
#Decentralisation will take time.

#Bitcoin is decentralised although still attached to a centralised world.

⚠️ This is the alpha.
⚠️ #LightningNetwork is the beta.
If you want to change society you need to change the social paradigm, or offer an incentive greater than money to discourage greed. #bitcoin #LightningNetwork ⚡️
Read 10 tweets
Weekly moves, based on close to close. Previous 100 weeks reference used

Since 1997, there has been :
3 sigma moves -> 22
4 sigma moves -> 3
5 sigma moves -> 5

The week ending 5th Oct was a true #BlackSwan
Whenever this kind of moves occurs, they tend to cluster. that is , the chances of getting large weekly moves increases and will happen with increasing frequency.
A bounce generally comes in the next week, VIX continues to increase in the next 30 day period
Read 13 tweets
What does 'The Black Swan' really imply? What is that 'risky' event which Nasim Taleb refers to in his book? Unfortunately there are plenty of case studies available for Indian Investors. Sharing one such hair-raising development in a listed company: 1/5
Mumbai Municipality apparently has asked Bombay Exhibition Centre operated by a listed company NESCO to immediately stop conducting exhibitions on complaints by local residents regarding traffic congestion on Western Express Highway. 2/5
This exhibition centre brings millions of business travellers every year from all over the country and abroad to Mumbai and has over the years paid 100s of crores in taxes to government. 3/5
Read 6 tweets

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