Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #blackswan

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Good morning all! 🙂 Morning in Copenhagen - listening to Ludovico while I'm updating analyses and family sleeps. Fantastic piece of music: #AllisGood
Time for some #HZupdates. Let's take a look at the market from the way I see it. Where is that deflation, I have been forecasting? Did CBs succeed to do their magic and eliminate that threat? What about the Kondratiev's winter - over/done? Stay tuned! 🙂
AUDUSD is inflation gauge. Rally=inflation up; Decline=inflation down. LT perspective looks like this. Decline in 2008 = wave A. Rally up to 2011 = wave B. We have since been in wave C. Wave 5 will take us to ~0.5. Note the horizontal line. When this goes -->free fall #HZupdates
Read 28 tweets
#Bitcoin is bigger than all the companies that try to capitalise on its #blockchain #technology.

#Bitcoin + #IoT + #DeepLearning will transform the global political & financial system without permission.

#blockchain #LightningNetwork #fintech #blockchain #disruptiveinnovation
#Decentralisation will take time.

#Bitcoin is decentralised although still attached to a centralised world.

⚠️ This is the alpha.
⚠️ #LightningNetwork is the beta.
If you want to change society you need to change the social paradigm, or offer an incentive greater than money to discourage greed. #bitcoin #LightningNetwork ⚡️
Read 10 tweets
Weekly moves, based on close to close. Previous 100 weeks reference used

Since 1997, there has been :
3 sigma moves -> 22
4 sigma moves -> 3
5 sigma moves -> 5

The week ending 5th Oct was a true #BlackSwan
Whenever this kind of moves occurs, they tend to cluster. that is , the chances of getting large weekly moves increases and will happen with increasing frequency.
A bounce generally comes in the next week, VIX continues to increase in the next 30 day period
Read 13 tweets
What does 'The Black Swan' really imply? What is that 'risky' event which Nasim Taleb refers to in his book? Unfortunately there are plenty of case studies available for Indian Investors. Sharing one such hair-raising development in a listed company: 1/5
Mumbai Municipality apparently has asked Bombay Exhibition Centre operated by a listed company NESCO to immediately stop conducting exhibitions on complaints by local residents regarding traffic congestion on Western Express Highway. 2/5
This exhibition centre brings millions of business travellers every year from all over the country and abroad to Mumbai and has over the years paid 100s of crores in taxes to government. 3/5
Read 6 tweets

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