Thread by @adicerimagic

Past couple of weeks have been quite eventful on 🇧🇦.

Following many meetings, emails, (zoom) calls, background talks and tweet-reads, let me bring together some key facts, assessments, positions & actions of different actors.🧵 1/24

What has Milorad #Dodik done so far?

I. Together with RS opposition:

1. Adopted RS law annuling Inzko’s imposition = RS made parts of the state-level criminal code not applicable in RS.

2. Voted against all decisions in state-level institutions except essential = financing.

II. Without the opposition:

1. Laid out a detailed plan to create parallel entity institutions = to collapse 🇧🇦 institutional & legal architecture.

2. Lower RS Assembly house adopted a Law on parallel Agency for medicinal products and devices = to disrupt unified market.

3. Has used rhetoric against multi-ethnic 🇧🇦, villifying its Muslim population & 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇩🇪🇪🇺 policies in the region (see his speech in Budapest).

4. Despite political crisis his party did not cancle special police units anti-terrorist exercise near entity line, incl. Sarajevo.

Why is his plan dangerous?

Take the creation of a parallel Agency for medicinal products & devices.

Since 2009 🇧🇦 has a joint state-level Agency, in charge for establishing and supervising a unified market. Since then rules & procedures have been to great extent established.

The Agency has around 100 employees with 40 having special training needed for such Agency.

The 2020 budget was ca. €2.7 million, bringing extra €5 million to 🇧🇦 budget.

Its seat is in Banja Luka (RS) but the heart of the Agency - its control laboratory - is in Sarajevo.

This Control Laboratory is part of the European network of national laboratories. BiH’s market relies on import so such nerworks are important.

Note that most (but not all!) states have one such laboratory.

Draft law adopted by the lower house of RS Assembly on a parallel RS Agency is mostly a copy-paste of the state-level law.

It foresees same structure of institutions, competences and scope of the work as a state-level one.

One exception: government has more scope to intervene.

Its unilateral coming into force & implementation would create institutional & legal insecurity.

It would collapse unified 🇧🇦 market & its supervision, resulting with disruption of supply with medicinal products & equipments. In 2019 🇧🇦 import from 🇪🇺 alone was €200 million.

Adoption & implementation of this law would be unconstitutional.

The Court rule is: once somethig is at state-level only state-level Parliament could give it back.

So if challenged before the Constitutional Court of BiH most parts of the RS law would be deemed unconstitutinal.

So why are so many worried?

Dodik has said he would not implement any decisions by the Court.

Couldn’t he/supporters be criminally charged?

Yes, but the plan involves simultanious adoption of similar laws: military, taxation.. & state judiciary that should prosecute them…

#Dodik’s rhetoric, plan & activites provoke expected, nervous & realpolitik reactions from other actors.

Earlier this month, for example, chairman of the largest Bosniak party SDA Bakir Izetbegović spoke in leangth about streangth of Bosniak arms industry.

So what do 🇺🇸🇪🇺🇬🇧 do?

🇺🇸 sees this all as a path to RS becoming #Transnistria or #SouthOssetia & 🇧🇦=🇲🇩.

US offered RS a similar partnership that 🇺🇸 has with 🇷🇸 & which includes:

-support for #OpenBalkan;
-$ 1 billion assistance;
-new partnership with universities;
-Joint police & military exercises.

To counter the #Transnistria path of #RepublikaSrpska & 🇧🇦 becoming new old-🇲🇩, #USA is also ready to use sanctions against individuals & businesses that are key supporters of such path.

Sanctions are not 🇺🇸’s 1st choice but would be used if further & concrete steps were made.

🇩🇪 came out with almost a copy paste of 🇺🇸 assessment of the situation, including what next:

- Dodik’s plan to unilaterally establish parallel institutions in #RepublikaSrpska is secessionist policy.

- Ready to use sanctions against individuals & RS.

euractiv.com/section/politi…

Last week’s public debates & statements from the 🇬🇧 government point to a full allignment of 🇺🇸🇩🇪🇬🇧 on what the current situation in 🇧🇦 is (= plan to take Republika Srpska down the #Transnistria path), and agreement on some of the steps: sanctions.

thetimes.co.uk/article/west-p…

Many called for & criticised 🇺🇸🇪🇺🇩🇪 for not imposing sanctions earlier. Why are they hesitant?

1. They see all Dodik’s actions so far as reversable:

- annuling parts of state-level criminal code,
- lower-house adoption of RS medicinal agency law,
- voting in state institutions.

2. They see increasing opposition to Dodik’s plan:

- From the opposition in Republika Srpska = Law on RS Medicinal Agency was voted in the lower house with only 50% + 1 vote majority.

- Within Dodik’s ranks = RS’ interior minister warned about practical negative consequences.

- From #Serbia where President #Vučić has repeatedly said in public that 🇷🇸 cannot support unilateral moves by anyone (so also including Dodik).

3. They hope that (unpleasent & officialy unrealted) diplomatic efforts by (🇪🇺 illiberal forces) 🇭🇺🇸🇮might yield some results.

4. They are afraid of being seen as offering 🇷🇺 another chance to support Milorad Dodik escalating the situation further.

- Most in 🇺🇸🇪🇺 agree Inzko’s imposition was an excuse for Dodik to escalate & 🇷🇺 to support him.

- Some believe using sanctions too early would do same.

So what now?

1. Next week 🇪🇺 foreign ministers will discuss #Balkans, with a special focus on 🇧🇦, next septs & sanctions (but no decisions expected!)

2. FAC to be followed by visits to 🇧🇦 from 🇪🇺 enlargement commissioner #Varhelyi, as well as #EEAS director Angelina #Eichorst.

3. Next week’s three-days long visit by 🇺🇸 Counselor Chollet’s is seen as (a last) chance for #Dodik to halt his plan & roll back some of his moves. Their meeting has not yet been confirmed leaving space for conditions for its taking place to be discussed.

To conclude:

1. Institutional & legal architecture that kept 🇧🇦 peace for 26 years is challenged & threat of collapse is real.

2. 🇺🇸🇩🇪🇬🇧 understand the danger, they coordinate & with low chance to succede they try to convince #Dodik to halt & roll back. Next week(s) is key!

3. Joint 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇩🇪 efforts in 🇧🇦 are significantly weakened by total collapse of 🇪🇺 policy in the Balkans.

While next week(s) might show that these efforts were still enough to prevent further escalation, to move 🇧🇦 & #WB6 forward 🇪🇺 will need new policy.👇🏼

esiweb.org/proposals/open…