JUST IN: Final Germany Age-Adjusted Mortality Update for 2021!
> 2020: Excess of +1.6%
> 2021: Excess of +1.8%
1/n
#Covid #Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus
Here's the time series:
By quarter:
> Q4/2020: Excess +9.3%
> Q4/2021: Excess +10.6%
Covid-19 matches excess mortality pretty well, however in the sum it replaced flu almost 1:1!
If there weren't any COVID-19 deaths, this is what the mortality figures would look like!
To get to exactly 0% excess mortality, Germany would have still to have 87% of it's COVID-19 deaths.
Sources & Calculations: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
By age groups 0-44:
By age groups 45-64:
By age groups 65-84:
By age groups 85+:
Matrix for each German state (up to week 49/2021):
Difference Matrix for each German state (up to week 49/2021):
For each individual state, see the Toolbox here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
E.g. here Saxony/Sachsen which has the highest excess mortality in Germany so far!
Two things to keep in mind for the German state comparison, though!
> Age bins provided by @destatis are too coarse! 0-65, etc.
> Excess mortality correlates very well with obesity levels by German state:
Also based on the above Difference Matrix, we can look how the states are doing this year and correlate this to the vaccination levels!
There's no correlation R2=0.02, p=0.93!
Ultimately we must look at all-cause deaths by vaccination status in order to assess any effect!
Updated Obesity map, h/t @orwell2022
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