Thread by @tdarling1

🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global Macro Review 02/27/22

1/13

With 🪆 event risk behind us, equities were able to find relief 😅

But with #FOMC into the #ides in advance of quarterly #opex, vol 🌊 is expected to remain 🛗

Under reported: #PCE +6.1% y/y ↗️

Let’s dig into the 🧮!

2/13

War 💥 broke out and equity volatility 🌊 actually came in on the week but remains 🛗

$VIX 27.59 🔻
$RVX 33.20 🔻
$VXN 31.19 🔻
$VXEEM 28.17 🔺
$VSTOXX 32.12 🔺

Chart: $RVX retreated from the F 🪣
© @Hedgeye

3/13

🇺🇸 equities ↗️ on the week but remain 🐻 Trend
(T = 3 months)

$IWM +1.52% (w) -9.1% (T)
$COMPQ +1.08% (w) -11.6% (T)
$SPX +0.82% (w) -4.57% (T)

Chart: $IWM - small caps continue to outperform +3.71% over trade duration (t) = 1 month

4/13

#Quad4 US sectors outperformed this week

$XLV +2.7% (w) -0.4% (T)
$XLRE +2.64% (w) -3.2% (T)
$XLU +2.65% (w) -2.0% (T)

Weakest sectors
$XLY -2.12% (w) -13.55% (T)
$XLF -0.3% (w) +1.3% (T)
$XLP -0.16% (w) +6.2% (T)

Chart: $XLU back to ♉️ (T) 🔨 time

5/13

Leaving aside RTSI -32.65%, HSI and DAX led international indices ↘️

$HSI -6.41% (w) -5.45% (T)
$DAX -3.16% (w) -4.5% (T)
$CAC -2.56% (w) +0.2% (T)
$KOSPI -2.47% (w) -8.85% (T)
$NIKK -2.38% (w) -7.9% (T)
$SSEC -1.13% (w) -3.15% (T)

Chart: $HSI signs of life dashed ↘️

6/13

Top country ETFs
$IDX +1.72% (w) +6.35% (T) ⬅️🆕
$EDEN +1.43% (w) -8.9% (T)
$EWC +1.06% (w) +1.15% (T) ⬅️🆕
$EWA +1.0% (w) +1.3% (T) ⬅️🆕

Weakest countries
$RSX -34.76% (w) -33.4% (T)
EWH -4.97% (w) -1.3% (T)
$FXI -4.06% (w) -8.15% (T)

Chart: $EWA ♉️ (t) +7.3% and (T)

7/13

Metals broke out, then broke down, but all remains ♉️ (t) + (T)

$COPPER -0.66% (w) +4.65% (T)
$GOLD -0.65% (w) +5.7% (T)
$PLAT -2.48% (w) +10.05% (T)
$SILVER +0.13% (w) +3.95% (T) ⬅️🆕

$GVZ 18.40

Chart: $SILVER ♉️ (t) +7.7% and (T)

8/13

Hydrocarbons 🚀🔥

$BRENT +4.73% (w) +34.65% (T)
$GASO +2.14% (w) +44.95% (T)
$NATGAS +2.05% (w) -18.43% (T) 🐻
$WTIC +1.53% (w) +34.4% (T)

Chart: $GASO - gonna cost more 💰at the ⛽️ but very overbought

9/13

Grains 🚀 on the 🇺🇦 news but crashed ↘️ on Friday

$CORN +0.46% (w)+10.8% (T)
$SOYB -1.18% (w) +26.5% (T)
$SUGAR -1.15% (w) -6.8% (T)
$WHEAT +6.93% (w) +2.3% (T) ⬅️🆕♉️

$COFFEE ☕️ -3.24% (w) -1.6% (T) ⬅️🆕🐻

Chart: Volatile week for $WHEAT ♉️ (t) +9.35% and (T)

10/13

UST yields were ↗️ across the curve

At 40 BPS 10/2s have been halved since the start of the year

MOVE 93.34 🛗

Chart: 10/2s 🐻 #flattener

11/13

Reiterated: Bond ETFs are not a place for your capital with #inflation ↗️

$TLT -0.98% (w) -9.05% (T)
$TIP +0.7% (w) -1.45 (T)
$LQD -0.16% (w) -6.6% (T)
$HYG +0.87% (w) -1.5% (T)

Chart: With a 4.2% cost of carry, you had better be damn accurate to short $HYG

12/13

The Aussie 🦘 to ♉️ (t) +3.29% and (T) +1.54% while the $USD remains decidedly neutral -0.47% (t) and +0.54% (T)

Chart: $AUDUSD ♉️

13/13

War 💥 or no war, the $FOMC has a job to do
#PCE accelerated to 6.1%

With 💥 raging in 🇺🇦 and #Swift sanctions in place, the battle over commodities is front and center.

vol 🌊 will continue to pick ♉️ + 🐻 pockets ⚠️

Chart: $INFL broke to ♉️ (t) +4.3% and (T) +3.15%

14/13

Heading to 🇲🇽 mid-week on vacation.
But you all know by now, I do not vacation well
I will be on, but sporadic.

Have a super profitable 💰 week!