Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #PCE
Most recents (24)
Today’s #CPI report for May showed another very firm depiction of where #inflation currently resides in the U.S., with #coreCPI (excluding volatile food and energy components) printing at 0.44% month-over-month and 5.33% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, #headlineCPI data printed 0.12% month-over-month and came in just above 4% year-over-year, with declines in #energy components and some food prices being offset by gains in #shelter and used cars and trucks.
Overall, headline #inflation does appear to be moderating at a faster pace and we believe that the trend in inflation (despite the firmness of core measures in today’s report) is broadly heading in the right direction, relative to the @federalreserve’s inflation target.
Hello Monday!
Slow start to the week with 🇯🇵 machine tool orders -3.5% as the debt ceiling drama continues in the background
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Slow start to the week with 🇯🇵 machine tool orders -3.5% as the debt ceiling drama continues in the background
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia ↗️ with 🗾 breaking to multi-year highs
$NIKK 31086 +0.9%
$SSEC 3296 +0.4%
$TWII 16181 +0.05%
$HSI 19722 +1.4%
$KOSPI 2557 +0.75%
$IDX 6741 +0.6%
Australia ↘️
$ASX 7263 -0.2%
India ↗️
$BSE 61895 +0.25%
$NIKK 31086 +0.9%
$SSEC 3296 +0.4%
$TWII 16181 +0.05%
$HSI 19722 +1.4%
$KOSPI 2557 +0.75%
$IDX 6741 +0.6%
Australia ↘️
$ASX 7263 -0.2%
India ↗️
$BSE 61895 +0.25%
Europe ↔️ with $DAX failing at 16300
$DAX 16241 -0.2%
$FTSE 7777 +0.25%
$CAC 7484 -0.1%
$AEX 768 +0.1%
$IBEX 9290 +0.4%
$MIB 27369 -0.55%
$SMI 11558 -0.1%
$MOEX 2645 +0.75%
$VSTOXX 16.22 🔺
$DAX range = 15880 - 16324 ♉️🔝
$DAX 16241 -0.2%
$FTSE 7777 +0.25%
$CAC 7484 -0.1%
$AEX 768 +0.1%
$IBEX 9290 +0.4%
$MIB 27369 -0.55%
$SMI 11558 -0.1%
$MOEX 2645 +0.75%
$VSTOXX 16.22 🔺
$DAX range = 15880 - 16324 ♉️🔝
NEXT WEEK
The Bear's take:
•Unresolved Debt ceiling
•Friday's negative day and bearish candlesticks
• Several neg. divergences
•Leading stocks reversed
• #VVIX bullish engulfing candle and #VIX1D daily higher highs higher lows points to more vol ahead
•GDP maybe ↓
$SPX
The Bear's take:
•Unresolved Debt ceiling
•Friday's negative day and bearish candlesticks
• Several neg. divergences
•Leading stocks reversed
• #VVIX bullish engulfing candle and #VIX1D daily higher highs higher lows points to more vol ahead
•GDP maybe ↓
$SPX
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's take
• Indices up week on high volume
•Buy the dip: Bullish action
•Volatility indicators are subdued
• $NDX, $FAANG, $SMH in good health
• $SPX, $NDX higher highs and higher lows
•Market broke out above resistance
•Breadth thrust last Wednesday
#SPX
The Bull's take
• Indices up week on high volume
•Buy the dip: Bullish action
•Volatility indicators are subdued
• $NDX, $FAANG, $SMH in good health
• $SPX, $NDX higher highs and higher lows
•Market broke out above resistance
•Breadth thrust last Wednesday
#SPX
Hell Thursday!
Ahead of today's Q1 🇺🇸 GDP report, the @AtlantaFed has reduced its projected growth by a whopping -140 bps to only +1.1% 😮
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Ahead of today's Q1 🇺🇸 GDP report, the @AtlantaFed has reduced its projected growth by a whopping -140 bps to only +1.1% 😮
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia closed broadly ↗️
$NIKK 28458 +0.15%
$SSEC 3286 +0.65%
$TWII 15412 +0.25%
$HSI 19812 +0.3%
$KOSPI 2496 +0.45%
$IDX 6942 +0.45%
Australia ↘️
$ASX 7293 -0.3%
India ↗️
$BSE 60500 +0.35%
$NIKK 28458 +0.15%
$SSEC 3286 +0.65%
$TWII 15412 +0.25%
$HSI 19812 +0.3%
$KOSPI 2496 +0.45%
$IDX 6942 +0.45%
Australia ↘️
$ASX 7293 -0.3%
India ↗️
$BSE 60500 +0.35%
Europe trying to muster a bid ↔️
$DAX 15804 +0.05%
$FTSE 7854 unch
$CAC 7497 +0.4%
$AEX 749 -0.15%
$IBEX 9308 +0.15%
$MIB 27166 +0.2%
$SMI 11395 +0.25%
$MOEX 2631 +0.4%
$VSTOXX 18.33 🔻
$DAX range = 15680 - 16066 ♉️
$DAX 15804 +0.05%
$FTSE 7854 unch
$CAC 7497 +0.4%
$AEX 749 -0.15%
$IBEX 9308 +0.15%
$MIB 27166 +0.2%
$SMI 11395 +0.25%
$MOEX 2631 +0.4%
$VSTOXX 18.33 🔻
$DAX range = 15680 - 16066 ♉️
🗓️ 2020 - 2021 - 2022 + 2023/Q1 Returns
1) #SPX
S&P 500 Endeksinin geçen 3 yıldaki ve bu yılın ilk çeyreğindeki getirileri
1) #SPX
S&P 500 Endeksinin geçen 3 yıldaki ve bu yılın ilk çeyreğindeki getirileri
Feb #PCE, #Fed's preferred measure of #inflation, came in cooler than expected.
But 1M doesn't make a trend.
What does the #PCE tell and what it all means for the #Fed?
Let's dig deeper.
A thread.
1/
But 1M doesn't make a trend.
What does the #PCE tell and what it all means for the #Fed?
Let's dig deeper.
A thread.
1/
As I said in in the Jan #PCE thread, Jan reading looks a lot like Oct. Both were outliers in an otherwise deflationary trend since July.
#inflation
2/8
#inflation
2/8
Time to update this chart.
With everything going lately this may be the single most important chart to look at.
What do the latest numbers tell us?
A thread.
#inflation
1/16
With everything going lately this may be the single most important chart to look at.
What do the latest numbers tell us?
A thread.
#inflation
1/16
I made the quoted tweet on Feb 2 which was before Jan employment report, #CPI , #PPI and #PCE when most were still talking about great Dec numbers.
In the meantime most indicators showed higher #inflation numbers but, as I noted beforehand, that is only seasonality.
2/16
In the meantime most indicators showed higher #inflation numbers but, as I noted beforehand, that is only seasonality.
2/16
As I suspected, some took advantage of these seasonality numbers and revisions of SA data (#CPI) to wrongly point to #inflation picking up.
And even worse, the #Fed embraced this false narrative and hiked 25 last week despite the ongoing banking crisis.
3/16
And even worse, the #Fed embraced this false narrative and hiked 25 last week despite the ongoing banking crisis.
3/16
Jan #PCE came in hotter than expected tdy.
After Jan employment report, #CPI and #PCE some have been calling for the #Fed to step up their hikes in order to solve the #inflation problem.
Should the #Fed do it?
A thread.
1/13
After Jan employment report, #CPI and #PCE some have been calling for the #Fed to step up their hikes in order to solve the #inflation problem.
Should the #Fed do it?
A thread.
1/13
Before we go into the #PCE details, here is a comprehensive overview of the Jan employment report:
#inflation
2/13
#inflation
2/13
Also here is a comprehensive overview of the Jan #CPI and what that means for the #inflation going forward:
3/13
3/13
Herkese hayırlı cumalar🤗Bugün #ABD tarafından #PCE enflasyon verisi açıklandı ve beklentilerin üzerinde %0.2 artış gerçekleşti (%0.6 oldu).Peki PCE (personal consumption expenditures) nedir ? #enflasyon ve #Bitcoin dolaylı etkisi ne olur ? kısaca bahsedelim
+++🧵
+++🧵
PCE,ABD'de tüketici fiyatlarının değişimini ölçen bir enflasyon göstergesidir.ABD Merkez Bankası (#Fed), enflasyonu kontrol altında tutmak için PCE enflasyonunu yakından takip etmektedir ve enflasyon hedefini belirlerken PCE enflasyonu verilerini kullanmaktadır.
+++🧵
+++🧵
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
Macro Review 🧵
01/22/2023
1/9
Don’t you find it amazing how quickly the phrases “Transitory Goldilocks” and “Immaculate Disinflation” have entered the #macro vocabulary?
Where did they come from? Why?
Macro Review 🧵
01/22/2023
1/9
Don’t you find it amazing how quickly the phrases “Transitory Goldilocks” and “Immaculate Disinflation” have entered the #macro vocabulary?
Where did they come from? Why?
2a/9
Let’s start with “Immaculate Disinflation”
Core #PCE rose .72% in Q4 2022 or +2.88% annualized.
The Fed has to be pleased with this, but given the pace of rate hikes, this is not all that surprising
Chart: Core #PCE
Let’s start with “Immaculate Disinflation”
Core #PCE rose .72% in Q4 2022 or +2.88% annualized.
The Fed has to be pleased with this, but given the pace of rate hikes, this is not all that surprising
Chart: Core #PCE
2b/9
Wages have also started to decelerated quickly - now +4.6% y/y
Chart: US average hourly earnings y/y
Wages have also started to decelerated quickly - now +4.6% y/y
Chart: US average hourly earnings y/y
Hello Friday and the week to date
$GBP +0.12%
$GOLD +0.1%
$USD -0.19%
$TLT +0.73%
$HYG +0.29%
$TNX +0.26%
$COMPQ +3.34%
$NIKK +3.05%
$DAX +0.66%
$DBA +2.16%
#Bitcoin +1.47%
$COPPER +0.47%
$SILVER +038%
$DBC -0.16%
$WTIC -0.77%
$NATGAS -10.13%
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
$GBP +0.12%
$GOLD +0.1%
$USD -0.19%
$TLT +0.73%
$HYG +0.29%
$TNX +0.26%
$COMPQ +3.34%
$NIKK +3.05%
$DAX +0.66%
$DBA +2.16%
#Bitcoin +1.47%
$COPPER +0.47%
$SILVER +038%
$DBC -0.16%
$WTIC -0.77%
$NATGAS -10.13%
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia finished the week on ↗️
$NIKK 27383 +0.05%
$SSEC 🐰
$TWII 14933 +0.05%
$HSI 22689 +0.55%
$KOSPI 2484 +0.62%
$IDX 6899 +0.5%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7494 +0.35%
India ↘️🐻
$BSE 59085 -1.85%
$NIKK 27383 +0.05%
$SSEC 🐰
$TWII 14933 +0.05%
$HSI 22689 +0.55%
$KOSPI 2484 +0.62%
$IDX 6899 +0.5%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7494 +0.35%
India ↘️🐻
$BSE 59085 -1.85%
Europe trading ↗️ but tight
$DAX 15147 +0.1%
$FTSE 7770 +0.1%
$CAC 7171 +0.05%
$AEX 750 +0.3%
$IBEX 9039 +0.05%
$MIB 26246 +0.1%
$SMI 11329 +0.1%
$MOEX 2177 +0.45%
$VSTOXX 17.89
$DAX range = 14812 - 15580 ♉️
$DAX 15147 +0.1%
$FTSE 7770 +0.1%
$CAC 7171 +0.05%
$AEX 750 +0.3%
$IBEX 9039 +0.05%
$MIB 26246 +0.1%
$SMI 11329 +0.1%
$MOEX 2177 +0.45%
$VSTOXX 17.89
$DAX range = 14812 - 15580 ♉️
At first glance, Nov #CPI was somewhat better-than-expected report (headline MoM slightly lower than expectations -0.1% vs 0%) and mostly in line (YoY headline, as well as MoM&YoY core).
But in the details #inflation is much weaker than gets recognized.
A thread.
1/17
But in the details #inflation is much weaker than gets recognized.
A thread.
1/17
Unadjusted headline #CPI is down for the 2nd M in a row with -0.31% which is the lowest print since Apr 2020 (-0.67%).
In the last 8 yrs there were only 2M with materially lower prints (Apr 2020 and Jan 2015 -0.47%)!
2/17
In the last 8 yrs there were only 2M with materially lower prints (Apr 2020 and Jan 2015 -0.47%)!
2/17
Unadjusted headline in Dec 2022 (-0.31%) is the 6th lowest in 8 yrs but 3 of these prints were almost identical (Dec 2018 -0.32%, Nov 2018 -0.33% and Dec 2015 -0.34%).
In Apr 2020 the economy was on forced lockdown, and in 2015/late 2018 #deflation was a problem.
3/17
In Apr 2020 the economy was on forced lockdown, and in 2015/late 2018 #deflation was a problem.
3/17
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
My Q12023 outlook reflects the massive forces current under way 🧵
My Q12023 outlook reflects the massive forces current under way 🧵
1> Fed, Treasury, and big market players (reverse repo) who are draining liquidity from the markets will make for a messy start for risk assets to start the new year.
This coincides with 🥐🪟 of weakness into Jan 10.
This coincides with 🥐🪟 of weakness into Jan 10.
2> Cheap Russian oil (less than $60/B) is being directed to our most important manufacturing ‘partners' (China and India).
Because they are well supplied, goods inflation is unlikely to rise in the hear term.
wsj.com/articles/russi…
Because they are well supplied, goods inflation is unlikely to rise in the hear term.
wsj.com/articles/russi…
💥💥💥 OMG, can you believe what happened in 2022?! 💥💥💥 Time for a recap 🧵👇
PC: WEF
PC: WEF
1/ First off, there was this crazy high inflation that was happening in countries all around the world 💰💸. It was causing all sorts of economic problems and making life hard for a lot of people. #inflation #PCE
2/ Then, the Omicron coronavirus variant started spreading and it was a total nightmare 🤒🤮. People were getting sick left and right and it was just chaos. #COVIDIsAirborne
Did the #ransomware attack at @HaverAnalytics result in an inadvertent #FOMC projection error?
🧵
1/5
#FOMC presser (12/14) contained a statement by #Powell that seemed at odds with incoming data
- #Powell said “we’re going into next year with higher inflation” vs Sept FOMC
🧵
1/5
#FOMC presser (12/14) contained a statement by #Powell that seemed at odds with incoming data
- #Powell said “we’re going into next year with higher inflation” vs Sept FOMC
2/5
As their SEP (survey of economic projections) shows:
- ‘22 raised 4.8% vs 4.5%
- this raised 2023 inflation
- and added to “higher for longer”
As their SEP (survey of economic projections) shows:
- ‘22 raised 4.8% vs 4.5%
- this raised 2023 inflation
- and added to “higher for longer”
3/5
But here is what is at ‘odds’
- the MoM% chg in inflation
- would have to be staggeringly high to get to #Fed 4.8%
But here is what is at ‘odds’
- the MoM% chg in inflation
- would have to be staggeringly high to get to #Fed 4.8%
Nov #CPI was the 2nd better-than-expected report in a row.
The last time that happened was, prepare yourself, in Oct 2018!
It didn't even happen during the lockdowns in 2020 making this report all the more significant.
Let's delve deeper.
A thread.
1/15
The last time that happened was, prepare yourself, in Oct 2018!
It didn't even happen during the lockdowns in 2020 making this report all the more significant.
Let's delve deeper.
A thread.
1/15
On an unadjusted basis headline #CPI was down -0.1% MoM, the lowest MoM reading since April 2020!
Back then the economy was on forced lockdown and this is only second to that lowest 2 readings (Mar-Apr 2020) in the recent history.
2/15
Back then the economy was on forced lockdown and this is only second to that lowest 2 readings (Mar-Apr 2020) in the recent history.
2/15
3M moving average of headline #CPI (MoM unadjusted) is 0.17% which is 2.1% annualized, well BELOW the #Fed's #inflation target.
I already explained this but for the ones that are reading this for the first time, yes, you read that right - 2.1% #CPI is way below the target
3/15
I already explained this but for the ones that are reading this for the first time, yes, you read that right - 2.1% #CPI is way below the target
3/15
The #FederalReserve Chairman #JeromePowell spoke indicating the Fed not pivoting but slowing interest rate increases if the #StockMarket behaves & #PCE & #CPI inflation data is OK.
#Stocks have been vulnerable to THE KISS OF DEATH.
Let's take todays #PCE Data report 1-by-1
/🧵
#Stocks have been vulnerable to THE KISS OF DEATH.
Let's take todays #PCE Data report 1-by-1
/🧵
1.) Jobless claims - close enough to market expectation (Neutral)
2.) Continuing jobless - higher than previous (Fed will like this, so good for stocks, sadly)
Oct #CPI came in way better than consensus estimates and even better than I projected.
This is only the 2nd beat on the headline and 3rd on the core #CPI this yr.
Does that mean the #CPI has really started to come down and the #Fed can #pivot?
🧵
1/18
This is only the 2nd beat on the headline and 3rd on the core #CPI this yr.
Does that mean the #CPI has really started to come down and the #Fed can #pivot?
🧵
1/18
In the details this was a good report. MoM unadjusted:
1) Food +0.7%, same as Sep
2) Energy +1.0% vs -2.6% in Sep due to higher gas prices (+3.1% vs -5.6% in Sep), while #electricity and #natgas went down (-1.3% and -4.0% respectively vs +0.8% and +2.6% respectively in Sep)
2/18
1) Food +0.7%, same as Sep
2) Energy +1.0% vs -2.6% in Sep due to higher gas prices (+3.1% vs -5.6% in Sep), while #electricity and #natgas went down (-1.3% and -4.0% respectively vs +0.8% and +2.6% respectively in Sep)
2/18
3) Apparel unexpectedly went down by -0.6% vs +2.2% in Sep
4) New vehicles edged up to +0.5% vs +0.4% in Sep
5) Used vehicles and trucks -2.3%, slower than in Sep (-4.2%)
6) Medical care commodities -0.02% vs -0.09% in Sep
7) Alcoholic beverages +0.8% vs +0.1% in Sep
3/18
4) New vehicles edged up to +0.5% vs +0.4% in Sep
5) Used vehicles and trucks -2.3%, slower than in Sep (-4.2%)
6) Medical care commodities -0.02% vs -0.09% in Sep
7) Alcoholic beverages +0.8% vs +0.1% in Sep
3/18
Amid the election today it is easy to forget we get the Oct #CPI Thursday.
#CPI is the most important economic report this week.
So where will the Oct figure print?
A thread.
1/8
#CPI is the most important economic report this week.
So where will the Oct figure print?
A thread.
1/8
In prior months my estimates were ahead of both consensus and the Cleveland #Fed.
They also turned out to be more optimistic than the actual numbers.
Non #CPI/#PCE indicators are showing a clear #disinflation, even MoM rent #deflation:
2/8
They also turned out to be more optimistic than the actual numbers.
Non #CPI/#PCE indicators are showing a clear #disinflation, even MoM rent #deflation:
2/8
DISCLAIMER : This is for educational purpose and not financial advise.
Monthly market analysis Oct 31, 2022
#StockMarket #DowJones best month since 1976
Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
Monthly market analysis Oct 31, 2022
#StockMarket #DowJones best month since 1976
Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
1. After technical oversold and very negative sentiment in Sep month, #StockMarket was finally able to reverse direction this month. $DJIA had the best month since 1976 (+14%). $NDX was underperformed (5%) compared to $SPX (8.8%), $RUT(11%).
2. Let's look at US 10Y #Bond Yield price action. It was very volatile and tested 4.3% Jun'08 high before reversing -9.8% to the end of the month. This month it finished up 5.7%. RSI did not make new high at Oct 21 when it reached peak 4.33% (bearish reversal)
#StockMarket
#StockMarket
The #Fed is watching closely the employment reports to get a better understanding where #inflation is and where it is heading.
Why they do it and what exactly are they looking for in the labor mkt to know for sure the #inflation has peaked?
Let's delve deeper.
A thread.
1/17
Why they do it and what exactly are they looking for in the labor mkt to know for sure the #inflation has peaked?
Let's delve deeper.
A thread.
1/17
The #Fed is led by theoretical concepts like the Phillips Curve.
It was first introduced in 1958 and since then updated in several versions.
All of these versions involve #inflation or wages and UR.
So let's explain it in more detail.
2/17
It was first introduced in 1958 and since then updated in several versions.
All of these versions involve #inflation or wages and UR.
So let's explain it in more detail.
2/17
wage growth = LT wage growth - f(UR) + inflation expectations
f(UR) - function of unemployment rate
High #inflation leads to higher #inflation expectations.
With higher expected #inflation workers demand higher wages.
Hence companies are forced to raise consumer prices.
3/17
f(UR) - function of unemployment rate
High #inflation leads to higher #inflation expectations.
With higher expected #inflation workers demand higher wages.
Hence companies are forced to raise consumer prices.
3/17
#PCE #Core #Inflation keeps rising.
Main indicator for the #FederalReserve when judging whether or not to continue raising #interestrates.
#Powell was quite clear in his speeches that they will continue raising "into pain" as long as price stability is not achieved.
🧵
Main indicator for the #FederalReserve when judging whether or not to continue raising #interestrates.
#Powell was quite clear in his speeches that they will continue raising "into pain" as long as price stability is not achieved.
🧵
By "into pain", they are primarily referring to their dual mandate of price stability (#inflation) and maximum #Employment.
But there is not much pain showing up in the job market.
Last weekly jobless claims hit a 5-month low.
reuters.com/markets/us/us-…
But there is not much pain showing up in the job market.
Last weekly jobless claims hit a 5-month low.
reuters.com/markets/us/us-…
So to summarize, #TheFed has 2 jobs:
1. Reduce #inflation (not done)
2. Maximize #employment (done)
And they've been adamant about raising #rates until 1. is done, even at temporary setbacks to 2.
Unless they plan on pulling a #BoE, anything short of #75bps/#100bps is hopium.
1. Reduce #inflation (not done)
2. Maximize #employment (done)
And they've been adamant about raising #rates until 1. is done, even at temporary setbacks to 2.
Unless they plan on pulling a #BoE, anything short of #75bps/#100bps is hopium.
What really causes inflation? 🧵
[a thread for normies - like me]
[a thread for normies - like me]
2/ The problem with #inflation is that it's a very personal experience.
As I always say, the wallet is the most sensitive organ in the body, so my inflation might not be your inflation.
In fact, my inflation could be seen as #disinflation by you... (more on that later)
As I always say, the wallet is the most sensitive organ in the body, so my inflation might not be your inflation.
In fact, my inflation could be seen as #disinflation by you... (more on that later)
3/ Price inflation and monetary inflation have different definitions:
* For many.- #inflation is the increased prices paid for goods & services.
** To others.- it's a decline in the purchasing power of your #money.
*** In layman's terms.- Too much money chasing too few goods.
* For many.- #inflation is the increased prices paid for goods & services.
** To others.- it's a decline in the purchasing power of your #money.
*** In layman's terms.- Too much money chasing too few goods.
75 is a done deal but a weird one.
On one hand we have negative growth and #disinflation.
On the other we have the #Fed talking as hawkish as ever with the mkt expecting it to go 75 on Wed.
What will the #Fed do, and why, in Nov and beyond?
A thread.
1/17
On one hand we have negative growth and #disinflation.
On the other we have the #Fed talking as hawkish as ever with the mkt expecting it to go 75 on Wed.
What will the #Fed do, and why, in Nov and beyond?
A thread.
1/17
Let me start by saying, regardless of the mkt expecting it, hiking 75 next week is a mistake.
Actually any hike is a mistake.
How can I say this when many have said (including the #Fed lately) that hikes need to be more aggressive in order to "kill" the #inflation?
2/17
Actually any hike is a mistake.
How can I say this when many have said (including the #Fed lately) that hikes need to be more aggressive in order to "kill" the #inflation?
2/17
Many still seem to neglect the fact that monetary policy works with a lag.
It takes time for the #Fed rate change to be absorbed through the system (transmission mechanism).
How long does it take?
Estimates range anywhere from 6M to 1.5 yrs.
#disinflation
3/17
It takes time for the #Fed rate change to be absorbed through the system (transmission mechanism).
How long does it take?
Estimates range anywhere from 6M to 1.5 yrs.
#disinflation
3/17
