Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #PCE

Most recents (14)

🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Global Macro Review 07/03/22 🇺🇸

Powell is committed to fighting #inflation and cares not whether you lose 💰 during the war.

“The process is highly likely to involve some pain, but the worst pain…”

Let’s dig into the early campaign results 🧮!

The $USD +0.91% ♉️ is becoming more dear against major currency pairs with $AUD -1.97%, $GBP -1.49%, and $EUR -1.17% on the week

Chart: $USD +6.3% (T) = 3 mos, +9.75% YTD

The UST curve both flattened and steepened with 10/2s ↘️ to 5BPS and 30/5s ↗️ to 23.2 BPS

Chart: $IVOL +2.76% (w), +4.9% (T)
Read 16 tweets
De olho na #MorningCall de hoje☕

#Brasil: O #Ibovespa encerrou a semana em baixa de 1,15%. Está prevista a votação em plenário da #PEC que implementará um aumento do valor do programa de transferência de renda, #AuxilioBrasil, em R$ 200 e reajuste do auxílio gás.
#Mercado: Além da troca de comando na #Petrobras, a #Copasa também comunicou a aprovação de Guilherme Augusto Duarte para o comando da companhia. A #Americanas deve liquidar a emissão de R$ 2 bilhões de debêntures hoje, com o prazo de vencimento de onze anos.
#EUA: Os índices futuros de NY subiam pela manhã, mas ainda se encaminham para um dos piores fechamentos semestrais em anos. Os investidores se atentarão à última leitura do #PIB, que será divulgada ao final dessa semana, e à inflação ao consumidor medida pelo #PCE.
Read 6 tweets
The @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the Federal Funds #policy rate by 0.75% yesterday, to between 1.50% and 1.75%, as was increasingly anticipated.
The move by the #Fed to progress faster to neutral will be applauded in the long run by the #economy, business decision-makers and ultimately by# markets.
Like putting your car’s transmission (automatic or manual) into #neutral, getting to that place allows for decision-making flexibility given changing road conditions, particularly when the road to the #destination has become increasingly #murky.
Read 13 tweets
Core #CPI (excluding those volatile #food and #energy components) came in at 0.6% month-over-month and rose 6.0% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, headline #CPI data printed at a very strong 1.0% month-over-month and came in at 8.6% year-over-year, spiking higher on #shelter, #gas and food costs.
These persistently outsized gains in #inflation are clearly having an impact on business and #ConsumerConfidence. Also, the #Fed’s favored measure of inflation, core #PCE, increased 0.34% in April, bringing the year-over-year figure for the measure to 4.9%, as of that month.
Read 14 tweets
While there is still considerable uncertainty over the forecast for #inflation, we think both Core #CPI and #PCE inflation peaked in March and February, respectively, and should move appreciably lower by the end of 2022. Image
Throughout the pandemic, strong disposable #income and limited services spending fueled consumer #spending on goods and high goods volumes created #bottlenecks and extreme #inflation. Image
Eventually, excessively easy #MonetaryPolicy caused this robust #inflation to broaden into less disrupted categories.
Read 6 tweets
Global Macro Review 02/27/22


With 🪆 event risk behind us, equities were able to find relief 😅

But with #FOMC into the #ides in advance of quarterly #opex, vol 🌊 is expected to remain 🛗

Under reported: #PCE +6.1% y/y ↗️

Let’s dig into the 🧮!

War 💥 broke out and equity volatility 🌊 actually came in on the week but remains 🛗

$VIX 27.59 🔻
$RVX 33.20 🔻
$VXN 31.19 🔻
$VXEEM 28.17 🔺
$VSTOXX 32.12 🔺

Chart: $RVX retreated from the F 🪣
© @Hedgeye Image

🇺🇸 equities ↗️ on the week but remain 🐻 Trend
(T = 3 months)

$IWM +1.52% (w) -9.1% (T)
$COMPQ +1.08% (w) -11.6% (T)
$SPX +0.82% (w) -4.57% (T)

Chart: $IWM - small caps continue to outperform +3.71% over trade duration (t) = 1 month Image
Read 14 tweets

Global Macro Review - 01/30/2022


With Joe’s blessing (#inflation no good for re-election bid), JPOW is hell bent on ↗️ rates and draining 👊🥣

Backward 👀 🧮 shows 4Q21 GDP +7.0% with +7.0% price deflator and #PCE +4.8%, a 40-year high, but…

@AtlantaFed is nowcasting Q122 GPD estimate of +0.5% ↘️

With $CRB +15.9% 🚀 off December 1 lows, the evidence of #inflation ↘️ is thin.

That said, Fed WILL tighten into a GDP slow down as fiscal spend ↘️ markedly y/y 😱

Chart: $CRB at cycle highs. 🔝?

Hydrocarbons said 🖕to the Fed

$WTIC +1.97% (w) +15.44% (m)
$BRENT +3.0% (w) +16.41% (m)
$GASO +3.67% (w) +14.41% (m)
$NATGAS +22.75% (w) +24.4% (m)

(w = week, m = month = trade = t)

Chart: Natty ripped the face off the 🐻🐻
Read 15 tweets
DoubleLine founder and CEO Jeffrey Gundlach presents:

Just Markets 2022 - I Feel Young Again

Today at 1:15pm PT, register here:…

#macro #markets #stocks #FX #bonds #commodities #rates #inflation #Fed #QE #bitcoin

Live recap thread⬇️
Jeffrey Gundlach: 2021 might end up running 7% year on the CPI

#inflation #QE #Powell #fed #hikes #rates
Jeffrey Gundlach: Low interest rates coupled with inflation generating negative interest rate.

#JustMarkets2022 #CPI #QE #Fed
Read 48 tweets
#US Core #PCE #Inflation:
▪️ Annualizing 4.8% in 2021 vs Fed SEP projection 3.0%
▪️ Last Jul 3.6%. Even if annualizes only 2.5% for rest 2021, full year YoY would still be 3.9%
▪️ Sept FOMC will have to revise higher from 3.0% towards 4.0%
▪️ Can 2022 proj be left at 2.1%? ImageImage
Core PCE MoM past its peak?
- 5y avrg 0.17%
- Post Covid avrg 0.30%
- Post Vaccine avrg 0.39% (since Nov'20)
- Post Covid peak 0.63% (Apr'21)
- Last July print 0.34%

Transitory assumption: will ease towards 0.17-20% MoM into H1'22 (equivalent to 2.0-2.4% YoY) Image
Trimmed Mean Inflation?
▪️ Powell at JH " capture whether price increases for particular items are spilling over into broad-based inflation. These include trimmed mean.."
▪️ Excluded: 50 components from lower tail of distribution of monthly price changes & 71 from upper tail ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
In January, core #CPI (excluding volatile food and energy components) came in at 0.2% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year. Over the year’s first half we expect Core #PCE to draw closer to 2%.
Yet, while we foresee continued firmness in #inflation, we’re skeptical it will be sustained and it won’t resemble demand-driven inflation, but rather it will be a function of favorable base-effects, #currency moves and a recovery in #commodity prices in the year’s back half.
From the standpoint of #monetary policy, we think the @federalreserve is on target with its policy stance today, and it will be closely watching the developments in inflation, in labor markets and critically in #financialconditions.
Read 4 tweets
At the end of last year, we highlighted our theme that 2020 would likely hew to around a 1.8%ish year (on real #GDP, Core #PCE, the 10-Year UST and the #Fed Funds Rate), but there are some other areas in which variations on this numeric guidepost also seem relevant too.
For instance, we’ve been impressed that the 3-month moving average on #payrolls resides now at 184,000, although it may well decelerate somewhat from that pace as the year goes on.
Further, roughly 1.8 million people will be hitting their formal #retirement age (65 years) every six months in 2020, which is nearly double the pace from just 20 years ago! Image
Read 6 tweets
Markets are still interpreting comments from NY @federalreserve Pres. John Williams as being indicative of dovish #Fed policy action, despite the central bank’s defense that these comments stemmed from long-term research. We think the #market is right to price in easing.
The central bank is considering significant #easing, but recent strength in June payrolls, and the bounce back in goods pricing in the last #CPI, suggest that it is not solely U.S. weakness driving the narrative, but preventive action based on fear of global slowing. Image
In line with our view that a rate cut is likely, we would point out that even with the decent Core #CPI number, Core #PCE is projected to be just under 1.7%, which is still well below Fed target. Image
Read 7 tweets
As the U.S. #economy has transitioned toward a greater focus on #services consumption in recent decades, services PCE nominal growth has never been in recession since the Great Depression, but the goods component has six times. Image
Further, services #PCE prices have not been negative once since the Great Depression, whereas the #goods component has been eight times. Image
Finally, when adjusting for #inflation, services PCE real growth has only been in recession once (2008) since the Great Depression, while the goods component has been 10 times! The fact is that as our #economy transitions further toward services, it attains greater stability. Image
Read 3 tweets
Que no pase un segundo sin que el materialismo grosero del estómago, que diría Rosa Luxemburg, nos recuerde su estrechez de miras economicista y obrerista ante la mayor crisis política del Estado burgués español desde el 78.
Y, de paso, su cada vez menos tácito alineamiento con la política de represión chovinista del Estado español. ¡Están los que han retornado al "marxismo-leninismo" (insértense risas enlatadas) para dar muchas lecciones de internacionalismo proletario, sí!
Para esta infecta escoria ultraoportunista, opresión es siempre y exclusivamente sinónimo de explotación y miseria económicas. Pero este economicismo vomitivo no tiene como telón de fondo que estos sujetos no tengan ni pajolera idea de marxismo (que también).
Read 17 tweets

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