Thread by @elieinohr

Why did #Russia invade #Ukraine? Is it because Ukraine wanted to join NATO? Or because #Putin sees Ukrainian as part of the Russian whole? It's a lot simpler.
In this thread I will give the overall reason for the #RussiaUkraineWar and explain the Russian political doctrine. [1]

Russia sees itself as a logical successor to the U.S.S.R, and considers that it established itself as a world super-power on 9 May 1945. Once the Soviet flag flew over the Reichstag, the world entered its new post-colonial order, one in which Russia is calling the shots. [2]

This is why the #VictoryDay is the most grandiose Russian holiday, and why the "victory" motif is so prevalent in the modern Russian discourse. [3]

The outcome of the Soviet Union's victory in the "Great Fatherland War," was (in the eyes of the modern Russian establishment) nothing less than the global recognition of Russia's territorial gains in Eastern Europe. [4]

Another outcome, was, of course, the recognition of Soviet Russia as a communist state, and communism as a legitimate ideology. This explains the uninhibited rise of the local Communist Parties across Europe until the 1948 Berlin Blockade - the first major Cold War crisis. [5]

Russia recognizes its defeat in the Cold War; however, it sees this defeat as the failure of Communism in Europe, not the failure of the Soviet state itself. It grudgingly accepted that the Eastern Bloc countries were no longer within its sphere of influence in 1991... [6]

However, that mindset did not leave room for the rise of 14 independent republics within the post-1945 "victory borders". After all, the Russians only lost the ideological war, not a real one with enemies inside its borders. [7]

What this doctrine didn't account for; was that the failure of communism would also break the common legislative, executive and judicial frameworks between Russia and the other Soviet states. That's why Moscow started the CIS in 1991, pulling its fiefdoms back into the fold. [8]

The Russian hopes for the new inter-dependent union within its 1945 borders; however, were quickly dashed. Ukraine and Georgia did not join. Russia was forced to retreat to its interior and defend against pretender states inside "core" Russia itself (Chechnya, Tatarstan). [9]

This bore deep feelings of resentment and revanchism among the Russian population. Perceived unwillingness of the Western "partners" to recognize Russia's territorial integrity, and the 1998 financial crisis ended the goodwill of the "Liberal 90s". [10]

Russia survived the 90s and a new "strongman leader" emerged - Putin. He quashed the Chechen rebellions, improved the economy thanks to the gas supply deals to the Europeans, and turned his gaze upon the former Soviet republics. [11]

His new political doctrine was simple - Russia has won the WWII, and should control all within the U.S.S.R.'s 1945 borders by right. Russia would allow the republics to remain nominally independent, but their leaders were to take orders from the Tsar in Moscow. [12]

The problem that many leaders of the former Soviet republics were unpopular at home; after all, many of them were former Communists and toed the Moscow line in detriment to the interests of their own citizens. This brought about the Color Revolutions. [13]

In quick succession, Russia has lost its iron grip over Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan (2003-2005), where the new leaders like Yushchenko and Saakashvili espoused Western values and rejected the exclusive link to Moscow. Putin would resort to force to bring them in line. [14]

The revolt against Moscow's influence in every facet of Ukraine and Georgia's life was tantamount to the revolt against the 1945 Victory itself. This is why Russia seeks to portray the "disobedient" leaders of Ukraine as Nazis. [15]

To punish the countries which have "strayed" and elected leaders who reject the "Russian world," Putin sought to exploit an in-built mechanism within the U.S.S.R.'s federative system: the self-governing autonomies. It was created by Stalin, back in 1936. [16]

In other words, Russia would seize land from the fellow former Soviet republics, on the pretext that those lands are populated by minorities who are being "genocided" by their host states. Straying from Russia equals being a Nazi, being a Nazi equals killing minorities. [17]

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia, breakaway regions controlled by pro-Russian militias. Why? To punish Saakashvili and send a message to every puppet inside its 1945 borders: "If turn your back on Mother Russia, we will take your land. [18]

Ukraine has also elected a pro-Western leader in 2004, Yushchenko. Russia elected to play cautiously, after the backlash over its invasion of Georgia. "Russian world" was still a thing in the "brotherly" Ukraine. [19]

Yanukovych, a pro-Russian candidate, won in 2010, and brought Ukraine back into Moscow's fold. Russia still commanded popular support in the South and the East of Ukraine, where Russian language was the lingua franca and many were ethnic Russians. [20]

Russians got Yanukovych elected on a false promise that close ties with the EU and Russia were not mutually exclusive. He inevitably reneged on that promise, tearing up the Association Agreement with the EU in 2014. He was shortly afterwards removed in a popular uprising. [21]

Putin no longer believed that Ukraine could be swayed back into the Russian fold, and decided to use his old trick and punish Ukraine's new pro-Western leaders by seizing land. That's how both the Crimea annexation and the 2014 Donbas War came about. [22]

However, unlike Georgia, Ukraine did not back down after the territorial losses of 2014. Its "unruly" leaders were not conducive to Moscow's attempts to rile them in. This is even more sensitive because the minorities whom Russia set out to "protect" in 2014 are Russians. [23]

Russia's key political doctrine inside the 1945 U.S.S.R. borders was to leverage influence over national leaders by threatening to arm and support separatist uprisings inside their borders. Ukrainians are painted as Nazis because the "oppress" Russians - a minority. [24]

Putin started the 2022 #RussiaUkraineWar because the Ukrainian establishment did not fall in line after 2014. Without Donbas and Crimea, Russia could no longer elect its puppets in Ukraine. The ongoing conflict since 2014 has also soured opinions about Russia in Ukraine. [25]