Thread by @osint_east

🤔

I thought working out a context/investigative thread on this developing story may be of use.

Recent posts suggest fighting in/near #Kinburn Peninsula [Кінбурнська] or vicinity of Herois'ke [Геройське].

The whole story is incomplete, but there is come context:

1/X

There's a few sources here to work with: official, local, and Rus. milbloggers (who either interpret or infer from events). This is an unconfirmed video (Ukrainian origin) accompanying the claim:

"MTR [SOF] on boats trying to cross the #Dnieper."

t.me/horevica/7571

2/

There was a corresponding (albeit cryptic) message from OK South pointing at military operations, later confirmed in an official post.

Note: on a Nov. 11 post OK So. mentions only Kinburn "remains to be liberated."

t.me/mykolaivskaODA…
t.me/mykolaivskaODA…

3/

#Russian milbloggers don't deny these claims. In fact, they dispute the value of Kinburn (and areas) since it's landscape "is of rare forest, swamp, and fishing villages."

[Kinburn] is "impossible to surrender because it is impossible to control."

t.me/mig41/22160

4/

They shop these talking points around & are synchronized. It appears they're keeping pace with events & not overreacting.

Note: the events of Kherson are having an extremely adverse affect on the Russian narrative/info space.

t.me/mig41/22160
t.me/russ_orientali…

5/

Interestingly, Anatoly Shariy (who may have been the origin of the claim "20,000 Russians stuck in Kherson," and is often hyperbolic) seems keen to highlight discontent among milbloggers. It's not clear if he agrees on the value of the operation.

t.me/ASupersharij/1…

6/

Locally, residents (?) are also aware of the impending (or current) operation. Calls for submitting "fresh information on the enemy."

Note the post is in Russian, corresponding with regional dialect.

t.me/vanek_nikolaev…

7/

Then this caught my eye, mentioned in reposts. A report on Nov. 05 suggesting RAF had used the Kinburn peninsula for launching drones.

A more recent post doesn't mention that reference, using OK South reporting line instead.

t.me/Tsaplienko/197…
t.me/Tsaplienko/203…

8/

Going back about a month (October 10) and the reports of Russian attacks emanating from the Kinburn peninsula become more apparent. Numerous instances of shelling along the coast reported by OK South.

t.me/mykolaivskaODA…
t.me/mykolaivskaODA…

9/

And then, it turns out, we have this report (unconfirmed) about two weeks earlier on September 26:

"The Armed Forces hit the control and training center of Iranian drones"

"...not far from the Kinburn spit."

t.me/hueviyherson/2…

10/

3 days earlier (Sep. 23), this report claiming the shoot-down of Mohajer-6 emerged. With a 200+ km range the specific launch point is unknown.

However, by AFU claims, and based on the strike on Sep. 26, the Kinburn area is at least suspected.

t.me/Tsaplienko/164…

11/

So what could be happening here? A few thoughts:

First, the strategic value of the Kinburn peninsula is up-for-debate. It does imply control of the mouth of the Dnieper, but that's generally understood by control of Kherson.

12/

Second: an initial AFU attempt to establish SOF bridgehead to flank RAF now concentrated east of the Dnieper.

Third: as part of interdiction efforts to remove the threat of artillery, or drone launches, from the Mykolaiv coast.

Or—maybe all the above.

@ThreshedThought ?

13/

It would appear a possible long-term intent would be focused on expanding viability of the second option.

But viability is unclear—the Kinburn peninsula is incredibly rugged, is narrow, has few paved roads, and can be readily surveilled by the RAF.

t.me/Tsaplienko/203…

14/

Now for a twist.

On November 02 there is a mention to an article that quotes the claim from a recently-mobilized Russian solider "who was transferred to the Kinburn spit"

t.me/suspilnekherso…

15/

In that Nov 2. article the mobilized soldier is claimed as saying:

"they took us to the Kinburn spit, which seems to be considered the Mykolaiv region."

"...commanders say we will hold defense here in case of a landing from the Ukrainian side."

crimea.suspilne.media/ua/news/9577

16/

We can now invite a fourth possibility to the event, which can be framed in two ways:

1) disinformation by AFU to further complicate & frustrate the Russian information space (in the wake of Kherson)

2) PSYOP intended to divert Russian forces away from other key defenses.

17/

Update: this claim is now moving around in the #Ukrainian information space re: #Kinburn

There's been an (approx.) 12-hour lull in reporting on this matter, until Volya Media (reliable) resurfaces it and releases a concise statement.

t.me/volyamedia/473 [18:49 UTC+2]

18/

Within half an hour it makes its way across several Ukrainian reporting channels. They are seeking additional confirmation.

The working claim appears based on (local) reporting, and that sources await "official statements"

t.me/Tsaplienko/204… [19:34 UTC+2]

19/

As the Ukr. info space is pacing based on available sources, Rus. milbloggers continue to deflect any claims.

They again cite A. Shariy as sowing hyperbolic statements (referencing his claim of "20,000 Russians trapped in Kherson).

t.me/swodki/190185 [15:38 UTC+2]

20/

Regardless of the specifics of the claim (which remain unconfirmed) the Ukrainian tone appears increasingly confident of an actual military operation having taken place.

21/

And now it gets messy: two active and competing narratives re: #Kinburn .

But, it appears increasingly possible that an AFU operation likely took place. Russian sources shifting to claim 'defeat' of an operation, no longer deriding it as hyperbole.

t.me/boris_rozhin/7…

22/

The updated claims are now moving across high-profile pro-Ukrainian accounts on Twitter.

Let's see how this plays out in the coming hours.

23/

Amid the claims of a Ukrainian operation, a key resignation sets in.

Milbloggers' tone suggest they are resigned to the conclusion that Kinburn is either no longer under Russian control, or don't care otherwise.

t.me/swodki/190339

24/

Quick note: I've actively shifted this thread from part-deductive approach to tracking various pieces of the information environment re: Kinburn.

Part of my approach is understanding how various sources echo and complement each other, and which details make it out.

25/

Rus. channels have now released an aggregated assessment, tracking a sequence of claims. They don't outright refute claims re: Kinburn, and instead cite the absence of official confirmation from Ukr. sources.

These talking points are shopped around.

t.me/RVvoenkor/31781

26/

12 hours have gone by & a local TG group (private) - same that asked for 'fresh information on the enemy' - had only two messages:

1) asking members not create 'informational noise'

2) forwarded earlier message claiming AFU activity in/on #Kinburn

t.me/vanek_nikolaev…

27/

The info space on #kinburnspit remains opaque. It has been another 12 hours and only one update on existing claims has been made (cross-posted several times).

"Kinburn is ours" - [unofficial]

Let's see how this affects the info space.

t.me/bochkala_war/9… [18:27 UTC+2]

28/

An important detail re: #kinburnspit appears. ISW is now taking on the story, citing a Forbes article which describes the claim, but does not provide any new evidence.

Assume this will gain traction, and fast. Let's see if rumors turn into 'proof'.

29/

Rus. milbloggers report about on time, and appear to push ready-made counter-claims which are specific and concise.

Notably, they have since updated the number of AFU soldiers killed, and provided specifics on AFU units involved.

t.me/milchronicles/… [18:56 UTC+2]

30/

Rus. EOD assessments have been posted. A few details:

1) No apparent concrete knowledge of what's happening.

Updates on Kinburn pushed to bottom of assessment (unclear if intentional or not); repeat claims of "AFU destroyed" verbatim.

t.me/rybar/41153 [23:10 UTC+2]

31/

2) Outright refuting (via reposted comments) the claims of AFU landings.

Also, the claims of Alyoshek [Алёшек] (Oleshky) are noted as also false — "a game"

MIR, exasperatedly: "Who are you listening to???"

t.me/mig41/22220 [22:40 UTC+2]

32/

3) Continuing to question strategic value or purpose of any such operation.

Note suggestion (or speculation) that if any event took place, it was RECON only, and no actual landing took place.

t.me/RSaponkov/3980 [22:53 UTC+2]

33/

Only one (apparent) update from Ukr. info space featuring a cross-posted video, claiming as AFU in boats attempting a landing.

The video is about as clear as the previous three (meaning it's not clear at all: location or when filmed).

t.me/Tsaplienko/204… [23:03 UTC+2]

34/

Regardless of updates from Russian or Ukrainian sources, something else interesting is happening with disparate claims—Kinburn, Herosike, Oleshky:

They are implicitly fused together as a wider (rumored) op. along the eastern bank of the Dnieper.

35/

I think fusing the disparate claims is significant for the info environment for two reasons:

1) Should one turn out as false, it is at least arguable to prove another could be true.

2) If all turn out false, is enables channels to aggrandize the effort (a "grand" PSYOP).

36/

In Ukrainian info-space, only one EOD update: DEEPSTATE makes a pointed remark:

"await official confirmation" ... "on the enemy on the Kinburn pen, in the fire of battle."

The translation may be an issue (see how sentences combine).

t.me/DeepStateUA/14… [00:44 UTC+2]

37/

Of note: there are a handful of comments by prominent Ukraine TG channels from early 11/15 (UTC+2) I'm holding onto, in anticipation of updates beginning 07:00 UTC+2 as daylight breaks in Ukraine.

However, there was an interesting element to the story from 11/13:

38/

HB Radio's evening broadcast hosted Dmytro Snegiryov, who's subtle remarks on #Kinburn repeat existing claims.

Interestingly, it is the *first* subject discussed, albeit it is not extensively detailed (unsurprising).

podcasts.nv.ua/episode/16720.… [HB-R]

39/

This suggests willingness to broadcast the claim openly, and from a source more closely resembling an official one.

It is still unclear what is truth; however, #Ukraine appears intent on maintaining informational guardrails—a pattern repeated during sensitive operations.

40/