Thread by @osint_east

Claim: #Russian Forces are Evacuating in the #Zaporizhzhia AO.

A fact-based thread tracking communications regarding this evolving claim & related events.

Claims sorted by type & origin [ 1️⃣ , 2️⃣ ... ; 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 ]

#OSINT
#UkraineRussianWar

1/N

mapclips: @DefMon3

1️⃣🇺🇦 18:00 UTC+2

On Thursday 01/12 the #GSUA stated in its daily report that individual Russian units & officials were repositioning, or evacuating, from the #Zaporizhzhia AO.

Specifically IVO settlements:

#Polohy (city)
#Mykhailivka
#Inzhenerne

s: facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…

2/

1️⃣🇺🇦

The statement conveys that Russian units & occupation admin. officials are leaving positions in public & private structures & spaces. It is specific to the point of naming the buildings that units are using.

There is no *official Russian response to claim (1) on Dec 1.

3/

1️⃣🇷🇺 23:30 UTC+2

Russian TG sources assume that units are not evacuating fully. Instead, it is part of planned rotation in these areas which are near front-line activity.

In that statement is a response to another claim regarding the #ZNPP [2️⃣] .

s: t.me/RSaponkov/4096

4/

2️⃣🇺🇦

On 28/11 Ukrainian sources circulated a claim that an evacuation of Russian forces from #ZNPP was imminent, possibly driven by claims of a proposed IAEA 'safe zone' deal. However, it was interpreted from a statement and immediately disputed.

s: t.me/Tsaplienko/214…

5/

2️⃣🇷🇺

This claim may have also originated due to change in upper occupation leadership at ZNPP. The press representative for Rosenergoatom (utility managing the occupied plant) and Dmitry Peskov state the claim is false.

s: interfax.ru/russia/874774
s: interfax.ru/russia/874491

6/

Despite the closeness of these two claims in type, we can presume they are likely separate.

Additional occupation administration officials may leave areas IVO ZNPP along with others near front-line areas, but no source confirms this as of Dec 1.

7/

1️⃣🇺🇦

Operationally, it is highly unlikely that Russian forces will retreat as far as Tokmak, or further south, as this fully exposes the GLOCs leading to Melitopol, exposes all East/West MSRs along the southern front, and risks splitting forces there in half.

8/

1️⃣🇺🇦

There is evidence to support the rationale for Russia to rotate forces, or consolidation positions, in the Zaporizhzhia AO.

#Polohy and other frontline areas have been subject to intense AFU shelling & counter-battery fires for months.

9/

1⃣🇷🇺 02/12 22:00 UTC+2

There is no new evidence support claims of Russian forces withdrawal in #Zaporizhzhia AO.

New articles have been posted on Dec. 2 which cite previous day's claims.

A Russian source claims direct evidence of force rotation.

s: t.me/RSaponkov/4098

9/

1️⃣🇺🇦/🇷🇺

There have been no new updates to the claim that #Russian forces are withdrawing in the Zaporizhzhia AO in the last 24 hours, as monitored.

The first claim will be tracked for approx. two more days until an assessment is made.

10/

2⃣ 🇷🇺

An update to the claim RAF are leaving the #ZNPP is added context that discussions between IAEA and Rosatom included "withdrawal of heavy weapons in exchange for no shelling by AFU"

This is considered separate from events IVO Polohy.

s: t.me/swodki/198126

11/