1) As promised, here's a thread showing how #Uranium requirements for just one typical 1000MW #Nuclear reactor in the West have increased by over 9% since #Russia invaded #Ukraine🪖 pushing up mined #U3O8 feed by nearly 20% in new enrichment contracts.🧾⛏️ Old 2021 model.👇🧵...2
2) For illustrative purposes I'll use Spot #Uranium & #Nuclear fuel cycle prices published by @Numerco a year ago on 16 December 2021 before #Russia's invasion🪖 when optimal tails assay was 0.146%:
#U3O8 $43.26/lb
Conversion $16.01/kgU
UF6 $129.04/kgU
SWU $56.13
👇🧵.../3
3) Plugging that data into UxC's #Nuclear Fuel Quantity & Cost Calculator🧮 to determine mined #U3O8 required for a typical 1000MW reactor using WNA's published average of 24,300 kgU of 4.5% Enriched #Uranium Product (EUP) yields 489,284 lbs #U3O8 per 1000MW (1 Gigawatt)👇🧵../4
4) Fast forward a year to @Numerco's #Uranium & #Nuclear fuel cycle prices as of 9 December 2022 with optimal tails assay now at 0.20%⬆️ as western enrichers transition to overfeeding.🍼
#U3O8 $48.12 +11%
Conversion $40.09 +150%🚀
UF6 $165.82 +29%
SWU $125.38 +123%🚀
👇🧵.../5
5) Plugging today's data into UxC's #Nuclear Fuel Quantity & Cost Calculator🧮 to determine #U3O8 required for the same typical 1000MW reactor yields 534,279 lbs #U3O8 per 1000MW, an increase of 45,000 lbs (+9.2%) per Gigawatt in 1 year since #Russia invaded #Ukraine⬆️
👇🧵.../6
6) But, UxC now quotes an even higher tails assay of 0.25%⬆️ for new enrichment contracts with western enrichers transitioning to overfeeding🍼 which requires even more western mined #Uranium feed of 585,341 lbs #U3O8, a 96,000 lbs (+19.6%) YoY increase per Gigawatt.🎇⏫👇🧵 ...7
7) With about 60% of 394GW global #Nuclear fleet (excluding 60 new builds) pivoting to use only western enriched #Uranium, with +96,000lbs #U3O8/GW increase for new enrichment contracts, western mined U demand rises by (0.6 x 394)*96,000=+22.7 Million lbs per year onward!↗️🧵../8
8) Of course, true demand depends on what term #Uranium, Conversion, UF6, SWU prices are negotiated in new contracts with enrichers & converters, timing/length of new enrichment orders, etc., but I hope U see why old 2021 models do not yet reflect real U demand from 2022 on.✖️🤠
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