Thread by @esatoshiclub

10 Bitcoin #Mining Predictions for 2023

It's been a wild ride for #Bitcoin in the past year, but it looks like things could be settling down for public #miners.

Here are 10 Bitcoin mining predictions for 2023, according to @hashrateindex 👇

1. The bitcoin bear market will come to an end

The future of #Bitcoin mining is heavily influenced by the price of Bitcoin. Arcane Research's 2022 year-end report shows that the current bear market is similar in length to 2014-15 and 2018, with a peak-to-through drawdown of 78%.

2. Bitcoin’s hashrate growth will slow down

Hashrate growth in 2022 was fueled by miners expanding during the 2021 bull market. However, the poor mining economics of 2022 will likely lead to a slowdown in hashrate growth in 2023.

3. The number of public miners will decline

Public #Bitcoin mining companies may have better access to capital, but strict reporting requirements can be costly. Going private can drastically reduce administrative costs and allow for economies of scale.

4. Hosting prices will fall as infrastructure gets deployed, miners are washed out

5. Cost minimization will be essential in 2023

Miners are heavily incentivized to reduce costs as profit margins become slim. In 2023, miners will prioritize lowering operational expenses, including electricity costs and administrative costs.

6. ASICs will become dirt cheap

ASIC prices are still too high given the current state of #Bitcoin mining economics. In 2023, prices are expected to go even lower unless the price of Bitcoin improves. At current prices, it would take over 900 days for an S19j Pro to reach ROI

7. Miners will struggle with achieving sufficient up-time

This year, #American miners adjusted #hashrate based on fluctuating electricity prices

High #electricity prices in most markets may force some #miners to turn off machines more often, reducing #bitcoin production

8. Regulators will keep targeting bitcoin mining

Regulatory pressure on the #Bitcoin mining industry increased in 2022, with some US states and Canadian provinces imposing moratoriums on mining. These bans may spread to other jurisdictions as regulators learn from each other.

9. Miners will work on strengthening their balance sheets

2023 will be a year of restructuring for the #Bitcoin mining industry. Many companies have unsustainable debt levels and will need to restructure or sell assets to pay down debt in order to avoid bankruptcy.

10. Miners will increasingly utilize Bitcoin mining derivatives

2022 showed the importance of risk management for #Bitcoin miners. In 2023, miners will become more sophisticated with risk management strategies, including optimizing the treasury and hedging revenues and costs