Thread by @intel_jakal

I've been tracking #tether's attestations since they started publishing them.
I'd like to think that I provide more granular reporting then they do themselves.

I generally try to update the shared sheets and provide some commentary with a week or so of the attestations being released. I haven't had the chance to this quarter...as well I've had real world shit to do ....

I was kinda champing at the bit to write up a few tweet storms as all the fanboys were shilling the amazing $700m profit #tether had made in the Dec quarter alone....

what always amazed me is the willingness to believe what they are told even when its clear that half the facts are missing. yeah ok. $700m added to the capital cushion....but HOW.

btw the #BDO report DOES NOT MENTION THE WORD #PROFIT ANYWHERE.

I'm not saying it's not possible I'm going to show you of how it is possible extrapolate a profit of $700m.
Full disclosure it was #tether's CTO that provides the insight into how to book a profit without making a profit. I alway's new #bluebit would be useful for something

Its right here in the 2020 Bluebit accounts

drive.google.com/file/d/1G40KLb…

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Part 1 with part 2 to come in new thread

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btw I've evolved my thinking. its a loan to debtors not a write off by debtors (hence the $750m reduction in cash at bank).

The last time #tether tried this they #FUBAR big time and got caught (some #muppet's bought it)
this time rather than attempting to net the cash out as a redemption they have hidden it in token liabilities.

Appending today's tweets to this thread.
March 2023 quarter attestation analysis updated to include bicoin and gold holdings

As per all previous quarters tracked XAUT remains separate

The big change for the quarter is under the guise of #transparency #tether has binned compliance to IAS2 and changed its accounting policy to mark to market. Not sure why states it has no impact on current valuation as this is where a majority of profits for the quarter arise

If they were so keen on transparency why weren't they split out from the getgo? Same reason we will never see a P&L or a complete balancesheet. Depending on which period they acquired the gold and bitcoin has a massive impact (particularly bitcoin) on the group's NAV

Lets look at two scenario's to illustrate the impact the so called "profit". At the end of March Donkey told the world #tether was on track to make $700m profit for the quarter. So lets lock that in as expected BAU profit.

Scenario 1 $842m - Assuming bitcoin/gold cost basis was from Dec Q 2022 + $700m = $1.53B which is only $60m (4%) variance to the announced profit.

Scenario 2 negative $(852)m - Assuming bitcoin/gold cost basis was from Mar Q 2022 + $700m = a loss of $152million for the quarter. Doesn't look so healthy now...

Have I got the numbers right? of course I don't but nor can anyone else who bothers to have a crack. The big takeaway is this.
Why? What was the point in changing policy and conjuring up such massive increases in NAV over the last 2 quarters when hey didn't have to?

Put another way....what are the hiding?

It seems like only yesterday I was scratching my head to trying to understand why #tether would go out of their way to change accounting policy to spin up their latest 'profit'.

Today one shoe dropped.
Next quarter they will report at least another $700m profit (it should be a billion + since they are gorged with extra assets). Lets just round it to $3B in reserves by next quarter and assume thats their target.

This was a nice touch.....we are only goint buy bitcoin with our realised profits not with revalued assets

no shit sherlock since you already did that last quarter to superjack your reserves to $2.4B.....

Lets just take a step back to the previous quarter when they reported $700m profit.
What stuck out like big shiny ram nuts was that the profit didn't result in a bigger pile of cash. The differential came from a net reduction in token debt.

As pointed out maybe the cash from the $700m was used to discharge liabilities thus reducing the liabilities. Well since the liabilities are essentially almost 100% token related if you paid back the cash to token holders they don't get to keep the tokens right.

After running a few scenario's including the 'bluebit' playbook - the most likely hypothesis is that they cash had been netted against token debt creating a net asset.

anyway back to the Q1 attestation - in true #tether form....where they have never ever experienced a loss or been adversely affected by any economic event ever (other than havine $800m nicked by a couple of halfwits in Panama).

Suddenly in the name of transparency they announce they hold $1.5B in bitcoins....where they picked the bottom to perfection and get to add it to their 'capital cushion.

They of course were able to completely avoid any losses at all a year ago when #bitcoin fell off a cliff.

This is the beautiful thing about #attestations where you can consolidate some numbers at a single point in time and have them signed off by a beancounter who doesnt have the ability to even query what happens 15 minutes before or after they sight partial accounts.

When you have a bunch of other opaque companies and ratholes you can paper over and pick and mix what you want for when you need it.

Often first instincts prove out to be right...my first thoughts on todays propaganda ..was bullshit - they will be buying the bitcoin they already have it ratholed elsewhere in an arms length entity.

$700m cash out the door in December quarter

Not only $700m of cash out the door in December quarter..but an all time low of $485million in their record breaking March quarter. .....

yeah but... I hear the muppets squealing. ...they have $7.5B in overnight reverse repo's....anyone notice something unusual? I've often given #tether shit for their ability to round up paper issues to perfectly crisp billions. But somehow manage to issue fractions of tethers.

To me it looks like a first week analyst plugging a model to make shit balance and hoping no one notices. But thats just me being cynical I guess.

after all its only $20B+ of cash that moved through the acccounts for the quarter...

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