Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
UMass Political Science, Int'l Rel & 中文 Minors. JD Univ. Hawaii. Liberal. Still have my Kennedy/Johnson button. https://t.co/j9jJ1DodWX Jin Jiyan Azadî

May 20, 2023, 9 tweets

1. As I had guessed, the attack near the airport in Mariupol killed 150 Russian troops in these buildings. Ukraine has begun to strike Russian forces forming in large numbers to be sent to Bakhmut as the battle for control continues amid the failing Russian flanks.

2. Ukraine has begun to focus on destroying rail lines supplying Russian forces in southern Ukraine. Today Ukraine used a small drone swarm to strike near the Russian rail hub at ##Dzhankoi in northern #Crimea causing a derailment on the critical rail line.

3. This followed a claimed sabotage attack on a rail line further south in Crimea near #Simferopol at #Chystenke that also caused a derailment.

4. A Ukrainian intelligence spokesperson publicaly stated that they would focus on Russian rail systems supplying Russian forces that sent panic in Russian command perhaps because another derailment was reported in #Krasnoyarsk region deep in the heart of Russian territory.

5. After the US supplied #Patriot systems shot down Russia's invincible #Kinzhal #hypersonic missiles the Kremlin arrested three Russian scientists on charges of treason for allegedly leaking critical data that made the missiles less invincible than the Kremlin had claimed.

6. On #Bakhmut, some maps show Russian forces in control of the western part of the city but there's curiously nothing on the large Russian media sites to confirm it. Twitter propaganda accounts are saying that Bakhmut is in Russian control but because, as reported yesterday,

7. Ukraine may have withdrawn during artillery barrages to then return, I'll wait for some confirmation from Ukrainian official sources before reporting on the status. No new updates on the status of the flanking operations that Ukraine advanced in recent days.

8. A strategic goal in Ukraine's stubborn defense of Bakhmut has been to draw Russian forces from other areas to shore up the Bakhmut flanks. From today's reports that objective has been accomplished as Russia appears to be moving forces to hold a city that is being surrounded.

9. Adding to my uncertainty, I've seen reports Wagner is withdrawing. Prigozhin said he would and there's unconfirmed reporting he's pulling out, headed for #Sudan. This all amid reports Russian units are rushing there. Perhaps Ukraine stepped back for his excuse to disengage.

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