Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
May 20, 2023 9 tweets 5 min read Read on X
1. As I had guessed, the attack near the airport in Mariupol killed 150 Russian troops in these buildings. Ukraine has begun to strike Russian forces forming in large numbers to be sent to Bakhmut as the battle for control continues amid the failing Russian flanks. Image
2. Ukraine has begun to focus on destroying rail lines supplying Russian forces in southern Ukraine. Today Ukraine used a small drone swarm to strike near the Russian rail hub at ##Dzhankoi in northern #Crimea causing a derailment on the critical rail line. Image
3. This followed a claimed sabotage attack on a rail line further south in Crimea near #Simferopol at #Chystenke that also caused a derailment. Image
4. A Ukrainian intelligence spokesperson publicaly stated that they would focus on Russian rail systems supplying Russian forces that sent panic in Russian command perhaps because another derailment was reported in #Krasnoyarsk region deep in the heart of Russian territory. ImageImage
5. After the US supplied #Patriot systems shot down Russia's invincible #Kinzhal #hypersonic missiles the Kremlin arrested three Russian scientists on charges of treason for allegedly leaking critical data that made the missiles less invincible than the Kremlin had claimed. Image
6. On #Bakhmut, some maps show Russian forces in control of the western part of the city but there's curiously nothing on the large Russian media sites to confirm it. Twitter propaganda accounts are saying that Bakhmut is in Russian control but because, as reported yesterday,
7. Ukraine may have withdrawn during artillery barrages to then return, I'll wait for some confirmation from Ukrainian official sources before reporting on the status. No new updates on the status of the flanking operations that Ukraine advanced in recent days.
8. A strategic goal in Ukraine's stubborn defense of Bakhmut has been to draw Russian forces from other areas to shore up the Bakhmut flanks. From today's reports that objective has been accomplished as Russia appears to be moving forces to hold a city that is being surrounded.
9. Adding to my uncertainty, I've seen reports Wagner is withdrawing. Prigozhin said he would and there's unconfirmed reporting he's pulling out, headed for #Sudan. This all amid reports Russian units are rushing there. Perhaps Ukraine stepped back for his excuse to disengage.

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More from @TimInHonolulu

Mar 16
The Kremlin continues to push a false narrative about Ukrainian forces remaining in the Kursk region when Ukraine fully withdrew over two weeks ago. It's possible a few reconisance units remain but even that is unlikely. So why the big lie?
My initial thought was Putin was trying to keep the Russian population engaged in his patriotic war to defend the Motherland, but I'm moving away from this propaganda motive to one of greater concern.
If the Project Owl data is accurate (and I believe it is) Putin may be preparing a spring offensive and the objective is Kyiv. Here is the current map showing all Ukrainian forces have withdrawn and have also left the border thinly defended Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 28
I've seen some recent posts that claim that Musk has used his Tesla shares as collateral in large loans to finance his other operations. If that is true, it's possible that Tesla share's slide has put him at risk of a default that could mean he loses everything in an instant.
I think Tesla is now domiciled in Texas and if that is so the lenders would likely have control agreements in place with Tesla that requires them to follow the lenders' instructions in the event of a default, What we need to know is, what are the loan covenants?
If there is a price floor that the lenders can call the loan or require additional collateral then, as Musk continues destroy the Tesla brand, that he has rebranded as a Nazi front, the price will slide to a point that shareholders begin to panic and sell to keep from being
Read 4 tweets
Feb 16
The @GOP will collapse on itself when Trump reveals he's precisely who we thought he was: Putin's stooge and the enemy of democracy. Shun those who would cede US power and moral authority to a defeated degenerate Russian mass murderer.
First, everyone must cut the cord and destroy @FoxNews and the other propaganda organs the cable industry forces us to subsidize. Listen to @MSNBC on @tunein until the network is free from the burden of subsidizing the corporate enemies of democracy. Prepare to cut the cord.
@FoxNews @MSNBC @tunein A cheap antena gets most local stations. With their revenue in peril the cable industry will be forced to terminate Fox's and other propagandist subsidies we're forced to pay. If we don't have the will to perform these small acts of resistance, then we are already defeated.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 28, 2024
Everyone calls Musk the richest person in the world because it's easy to count his @tesla shares and multiply them by the share price. But that doesn't mean Musk has the most cash or that he could ever realize
the cash value because, to do it, he'd have to sell shares and the price would fall. Wealth is a term that needs definition. Owning a load of land in a country like Germany might make one "wealthy" but the taxes and
limits on alienation might make it difficult to turn the wealth into cash. Do we really think Musk is wealthier than the Saudi royals? Remember when Musk bought Twitter? I had a few shares so I got the SEC-mandated
Read 9 tweets
Dec 2, 2024
HTS knows that their leader has a drone strike target pined to his tunic. His complicity with Turkey is apparent. The board is being reset. Military aircraft do no appear to be moving but yesterday and today show a large number of executive jets in the region that tells me
the players are talking but don't trust the phone. That could mean that what they are planning bad for the west. After Israel's brutal treatment of Palestinian civilians it was only a matter of time for the retaliatory blood letting to begin.
The Kurds, Christians and Yazidis appear to be the targets. I still don't have trustworthy data on SNA and HTS force size and capability. With all the noise on social media I find it shocking that there is nothing on this critical data.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 28, 2024
I spotted the Kremlin sock puppets during the 2016 campaign because I'd seen them while covering Ukraine. What I have seen recently on Twitter aka X is that Generative AI is being used to steer the tariff discussion. I don't have time or the will to engage so I
simply block the accounts once I am relatively sure of their origin. My suspicion is that the tariff absurdity is straight out of the SVR and Trump adopted it as a condition of Elmo being the Kremlin source of cash to win the election. I think Trump is backing away from Elmo
not just because he doesn't like sharing the spotlight but also because he may be getting warnings, similar to what he got after he was sworn, about Flynn that were the result of nitwits like Flynn and now Musk not knowing how FISA works.
Read 5 tweets

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