Thread by @CovertShores

***UPDATE***

The recent #Ukrainian attack on the #Russian spy ship Ivan Khurs in the Black Sea has lessons in explosive boat concept. But probably not what you think!

Thread 1/10

#OSINT

2.
At face value the attack was unsuccessful. Of the 3 reported ‘maritime drones’ (USVs), at least one was destroyed, and the ship appears undamaged (or minimally damaged)

Many people are disappointed

So it looks like these boats “don’t work”

But that’s not my thought

3.
But at least one got close enough to hit the ship. Ukraine’s USVs have done that before, with a kalibr cruise missile carrying frigate, and a minesweeper

Common theme is, no real damage

4.
Explosive boats are not new. Precursors go back to fore ships and then US Civil War, but the modern genesis is Italian Decima-MAS special forces in World War Two. hisutton.com/Explosive_boat…

5. Those weren’t particularly successful although they bagged HMS York. But they weren’t dismissed

Britain, Germany and Japan all emulated the concept

6.
The crazy British even developed one which could be dropped from Lancaster Bomber…. With the boat pilot inside it!!!!

7.
More recently the Tamil Tigers (hisutton.com/LTTE%20Sea%20T… ) and Houthis in Yemen have used them with some success.

8.

So what’s going wrong for Ukraine?

The obvious answer is the warhead and it’s fusing

The Ukrainians will be extremely frustrated I am sure

9.

So the lesson?

These can get through, and would be very effective in both ports and open sea if only the warheads performed as expected. And that is surely solvable!

10.
So don’t write off these uncrewed explosive boats. Relying on their warheads not working isn’t a sound defensive strategy

More thoughts but mostly not for Twitter