1) The Iranian regime's accumulating crises have called into question its continued viability. But a poorly conceived Trump admin strategy to hasten an Iranian capitulation/implosion could serve to resuscitate an ailing regime. My latest in @TheAtlantic theatlantic.com/international/…
2) The Arab spring was a reminder that authoritarian collapse often appears inconceivable while dictators rule and inevitable after they’ve fallen. It is notable how many longtime observers of Iran have begun openly contemplating the latter...
https://twitter.com/borzou/status/1001575429109579776
3) Even in official government think tank discussions, prominent Iranian academics argue the country is experiencing a “convergence of crises”-economic, social, political, environmental, and geopolitical-“unlike any other country in the world” youtube.com/watch?v=v8TiAe…
4) But...Authoritarian collapse often has 2 key prerequisites: Pressure from below and divisions from above. While the former can exacerbate the latter, rash US efforts to incite Iranian unrest can serve to unify, not divide, Tehran's ruling elites nytimes.com/2018/05/21/wor…
5) Academic research shows revolutionary regimes are more durable bc they inoculate against elite defections/coups. In crisis, Iran's highly factionalized political/military elite have always understood they must hang together or they may hang separately journalofdemocracy.org/article/durabi…
6) The unity of Iran's armed/organized repressive apparatus-the IRGC and Basij- is driven by both greed and ideology. To paraphrase @Kasparov63 on Russia, every country has its own mafia, but the IRGC increasingly resemble a mafia with their own country ft.com/content/43de13…
7) US officials and millions of Iranians-inside and outside the country-are understandably impatient to see change in Iran. But an important lesson from Iran's 1979 revolution and the Arab spring is that revolutions are ultimately judged by what they build, not what they destroy
8) The IRGC and Basij, like powerful militaries elsewhere in the region, will not relinquish power absent considerable bloodshed, and may yet emerge on top even in the event of abrupt political change. There should be no illusions that #RegimeChangeIran guarantees #DemocracyIran
9) The Reagan/Bush strategy toward the USSR remains a sound template for Iran: There were no contradictions between supporting Russian civil society, countering malign Soviet influence, and dividing/engaging Soviet leaders, including in arms control deals carnegieendowment.org/files/soviet_i…
10) All that said, any US foreign policy discussion these days must end with a note of sobriety: A scandal-plagued, internationally reviled, chronically unfocused president at home significantly limits our ability to promote more decent government abroad theatlantic.com/international/…
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