1. In Feb 2017 I wrote how a Trump-Iran conflict could unfold in 7 steps: 1) Provocations 2) Sanctions 3) Escalation 4) JCPOA unraveling 5) International disunity 6) Conflict 7) Repercussions. Neither side wants conflict, but we’re now entering steps 4/5 theatlantic.com/international/…
2. Iran is not racing for a bomb. That would create international unity. By slowly resuming its nuclear activities Iran aims to create international divisions and US isolation. It's a risky game. Global leaders blame Trump, but global economies will always choose the US over Iran
3. The danger of Trump's approach is that he's simultaneously provoked an Iranian escalation while also making eminently clear his aversion to conflict. Iran may (mis)calculate that Trump is all bluster and they can afford to continue escalating w/o fear of US retaliation...
4. The danger of Iran's approach (in addition to the risk of conflict) is their economy's downward spiral can't be reversed absent an (eventual) accommodation w/ the US. The regime may believe it has a monopoly of coercion over a cowed/supportive society...but for how long?
5. This may all prove to be a prelude to negotiations rather than conflict...But we're increasingly relying on the wisdom and judgment of two cynical geriatrics with incompatible strategies who've always prioritized personal interests before national ones theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
