So team #RE100 were in town today. And while it's a needed & valuable thing to get corporate buy‑in on renewables, no one benefits ultimately when the sales pitch amounts to a shell game.
(skip to 3:30 for start of actual interview) 1/x
Now we're only talking breakfast radio, so a touch light & frothy, but that's *exactly* the audience that needs to understand the fact that #RE100 is not actual low carbon. It's "marketing" 💯% renewables. The approach requires use of fossil fuels. 2/x thebreakthrough.org/index.php/voic…
And they certainly didn't take the opportunity to delve into any inconvenient detail on the more serious AM bulletin. Why not treat the audience with some respect?
Here for posterity, but also available at the source below. 3/x abc.net.au/radio/sydney/p…
The people already onside (continue to) think it's easier than it actually is. It's not easy.
Those distrustful of the whole thing just become even more sceptical …if that's even possible.
Bottomline it's not helping on the culture war side of things. 4/x
An inside view can be found here, from the perspective of the corporates. And it does make sense from their perspective. If I was in their shoes, I'd do exactly what they are doing. 5/x
First, they are buying a hedge against current & future electricity prices. It's a no brainer. And there's PR gold thrown in for good measure.
But there's a but, and it looks like this… 6/x
As more intermittent & variable renewables become more of the mix that minimum baseload demand drops. This is effectively the level that the combined coal plant output needs to dial down too. And some will leave the market early. 7/x
Which seems like a good thing at first, as coal does need to go; however in that load duration curve from earlier, the *peak* residual demand won't drop much, and the firm dispatchable source that fills that gap will almost certainly be …Gas. 8/x
Which will force prices up for everyone, except those corporates having already used their purchasing power to nail down a nice #RE100 pricing hedge.
If you think the whole electricity prices drama now is a problem, just wait. 9/x
We are in need of a *better* plan. One that pulls it all apart & deals with all the moving parts.
And there's no quick & easy way to the right answer; it's certainly above the pay grade of the Marketing department. 10/x fastcompany.com/90251085/googl…

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More from @yestiseye

Oct 6, 2020
@HOMOCOSMICUSv2 @OskaArcher oh thank you! I've been hitting refresh on sci-hub all day ;-)
Shall read through it with a nice beverage to balance things out…
@HOMOCOSMICUSv2 @OskaArcher ok, so iamma gunna start my tweet storm here.
First copy of the article/opinion piece/doesn't deserve to be called more than that. That link probably won't last & this'll hurt Nature's business model just a little bit too. 😼 1/×
@HOMOCOSMICUSv2 @OskaArcher screen grabs in the order as printed on the page (so some back-n-forth might be called for) 2/×
Read 18 tweets
Mar 19, 2020
@DavidOsmond8 @simonahac @sideen_dan @flexibledragnet @xoiiku @Arachnocat14 @DCMacgreiner @stewartbrand Good question btw. There's an answer, but I should compose it properly because the off-the-cuff version will ramble on for 30 tweets… no one needs that right now.
So later tonight then when I have more time.
@DavidOsmond8 @simonahac @sideen_dan @flexibledragnet @xoiiku @Arachnocat14 @DCMacgreiner @stewartbrand First I should have at least recognised you came halfway on this, with "…partly related to the high RE penetration".
My motivation is I see too much brightsiding here, and I'd rather make people upset now instead of letting them discover the hurdles down the road themselves. 1/9
@DavidOsmond8 @simonahac @sideen_dan @flexibledragnet @xoiiku @Arachnocat14 @DCMacgreiner @stewartbrand Every option comes with pros & cons; we'd benefit long term if we just dealt with those without fear or favour.

Now for anyone out there listening in who wants a tutorial on FCAS, this is a good place to start:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/2017/… 2/9
Read 10 tweets
Dec 2, 2019
@icowrich @CejSe @thalia25123534 @BenGlasby1 @QandA Here's the thing (& now we're going to use *data*, because that's what counts, not self‑serving iReckons): the data for South Australia over the last week.
Note in particular the battery output: 0.5% …so 50% more of that is what? Kinda meh. 1/×
opennem.org.au/energy/sa1/
@icowrich @CejSe @thalia25123534 @BenGlasby1 @QandA There's a reason why no one has been brave enough over the last few years (since the HPR Telsa "megabattery" went in) to put up their own 100MWh-class battery. Or pumped hydro. Not with their own money. Not economic. And people are already upset in South Australia @ prices. 2/×
@icowrich @CejSe @thalia25123534 @BenGlasby1 @QandA You need an arbitrage margin to make storage work. That's price differential *and* frequency of trade. This is useful data on storage out of AEMO for Q3 2019. I make out arbitrage‑only to be $1-3/month/kWh for both Li-ion & pumped hydro from this data. 3/×
aemo.com.au/tag-listing?ta…
Read 10 tweets
Jul 29, 2019
wut?
Not that the horse hasn't already bolted. That confirmation bias really has a kick.
…there's a moral to the story here somewhere, surely?
Read 4 tweets
Jun 25, 2019
@AdamTheRock1 @OskaArcher This is what happens when information gets mistaken for comprehension. You are implying that Queensland sets the marginal cost. No it doesn't 1) not all the time 2) not at the same price everywhere. 1/×
@AdamTheRock1 @OskaArcher Let's first start with an excerpt from your document. Up front at the beginning for a reason. The key to these high prices is when black coal *isn't* setting the marginal cost number.
If @TheRealPBarry's low LCOE numbers meant something than this👇 couldn't be so. 2/×
@AdamTheRock1 @OskaArcher @TheRealPBarry The NEM is a set of lightly linked state based grids, where most of the time the 100s of MW of interconnectors keep prices tracking together in each state.
Queensland is lowest overall because it has the most surplus supply relative to demand. 3/×
Read 10 tweets
Jun 23, 2019
@simonahac @ZimmermanErik But I am saying there'll be arbitrage opportunity, initially. In fact we can see it already exists in South Australia, especially if you can hold the energy for several days to exploit the largest margin.
This is a non-trivial issue though, so `lil tweet storm… 1/×
@simonahac @ZimmermanErik First worth noting that it clearly makes sense in such arbitrage heavy scenarios, a combined solar or wind (or gas!) plant with storage would be optimum for the individual market players.*

Now look at the current, existing data in SA or California. 2/×
@simonahac @ZimmermanErik Short, sharp energy trades like you'd see on computer-trading in major stock markets. Because that's how you actually make arbitrage really pay - high frequency micro margins.
This is obviously the opposite of the large chunks of time-shifted energy we need practically. 3/×
Read 14 tweets

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