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@AdamTheRock1 @OskaArcher This is what happens when information gets mistaken for comprehension. You are implying that Queensland sets the marginal cost. No it doesn't 1) not all the time 2) not at the same price everywhere. 1/×
@AdamTheRock1 @OskaArcher Let's first start with an excerpt from your document. Up front at the beginning for a reason. The key to these high prices is when black coal *isn't* setting the marginal cost number.
If @TheRealPBarry's low LCOE numbers meant something than this👇 couldn't be so. 2/×
If @TheRealPBarry's low LCOE numbers meant something than this👇 couldn't be so. 2/×
@AdamTheRock1 @OskaArcher @TheRealPBarry The NEM is a set of lightly linked state based grids, where most of the time the 100s of MW of interconnectors keep prices tracking together in each state.
Queensland is lowest overall because it has the most surplus supply relative to demand. 3/×
Queensland is lowest overall because it has the most surplus supply relative to demand. 3/×
@AdamTheRock1 @OskaArcher @TheRealPBarry (Also because the state government there isn't using the publicly owned generators to boost their finances anymore… but that's a whole other conversation.)
The data on wholesale costs (again from your AEMO document). 4/×
The data on wholesale costs (again from your AEMO document). 4/×
@AdamTheRock1 @OskaArcher @TheRealPBarry Because Qld has surplus supply, it is often exporting into NSW, and in turn to Victoria and South Australia. It is these exports into other states that often sets their marginal costs. And when they do, prices are lower than they otherwise would be. 5/×
@AdamTheRock1 @OskaArcher @TheRealPBarry There's a good section using NSW as a case study on how it works. It actually isn't complicated. Who ever supplies the last quanta meeting demand sets the price.
When it is black coal, that's a lower price than when gas does it, and less again when hydro. 6/×
When it is black coal, that's a lower price than when gas does it, and less again when hydro. 6/×
@AdamTheRock1 @OskaArcher @TheRealPBarry A similar diagram for South Australia would be even more instructive (and politically explosive). It would show when diesel sets the marginal cost (because the wind & solar have gone away in conjunction with unavailable Victorian imports) prices scream into the $10,000 range. 7/×
@AdamTheRock1 @OskaArcher @TheRealPBarry If it is the gas peaker plants (OCGT) doing this, then prices head towards $300/MWh and sometimes above that. Having a high solar & wind mix inherently leads to this because their intermittancy has a cost.
And Paul, this is why before LCOE you should do your research first. 8/×
And Paul, this is why before LCOE you should do your research first. 8/×
@AdamTheRock1 @OskaArcher @TheRealPBarry Witness now the determination of Victoria to turn itself into a larger version of South Australia, while pretending to itself that a couple 100MWh of battery storage with renewables will step into the shoes of brown coal (that almost never sets the marginal cost…) 9/10
@AdamTheRock1 @OskaArcher @TheRealPBarry What could go wrong? It'll be fine, don't worry about it. Nothing to see here folks. 10/10
