Thread by @yestiseye

@icowrich @CejSe @thalia25123534 @BenGlasby1 @QandA Here's the thing (& now we're going to use *data*, because that's what counts, not self‑serving iReckons): the data for South Australia over the last week.
Note in particular the battery output: 0.5% …so 50% more of that is what? Kinda meh. 1/×
opennem.org.au/energy/sa1/

@icowrich @CejSe @thalia25123534 @BenGlasby1 @QandA There's a reason why no one has been brave enough over the last few years (since the HPR Telsa "megabattery" went in) to put up their own 100MWh-class battery. Or pumped hydro. Not with their own money. Not economic. And people are already upset in South Australia @ prices. 2/×

@icowrich @CejSe @thalia25123534 @BenGlasby1 @QandA You need an arbitrage margin to make storage work. That's price differential *and* frequency of trade. This is useful data on storage out of AEMO for Q3 2019. I make out arbitrage‑only to be $1-3/month/kWh for both Li-ion & pumped hydro from this data. 3/×
aemo.com.au/tag-listing?ta…

@icowrich @CejSe @thalia25123534 @BenGlasby1 @QandA Note that the Tesla battery makes its money primarily off FCAS provision. Not a scalable option for a 2nd or 99th extra battery, so no one does that. (We should also note that FCAS costs rose directly as a consequence of inertia‑less wind & solar too.) 4/×

@icowrich @CejSe @thalia25123534 @BenGlasby1 @QandA So to do *standalone* storage you must make the arbitrage work. Yearly revenue of maybe $20/kWh of storage capacity. That's a non-starter. And you drive greater price fluctuations at the risk of making people riot in the streets. Because that will make average prices higher. 5/×

@icowrich @CejSe @thalia25123534 @BenGlasby1 @QandA Useful to grasp one thing in the SA grid data above. Note how wind has been strong for several days in a row. Not great for storage that would prefer to cycle charge/discharge over a 24 hour period (ideally, twice in that period). This is at the crux of the issue. 6/×

@icowrich @CejSe @thalia25123534 @BenGlasby1 @QandA With a firm dispatchable source, that load-follows but isn't excessively flexible (eg. coal, conventional nuclear) you can 1) build less storage capacity for the same outcome, 2) turn those not quite flexible sources into competitors for gas. So no fracking, no CSG. 7/×

@icowrich @CejSe @thalia25123534 @BenGlasby1 @QandA Remember, the whole objective is low(er) CO₂ emissions. So the best way to actually do that is almost certainly renewables + storage + nuclear. Unless people have *other* agendas here.

Tweet of the week y`all. And it's only Tuesday. 8/×

https://twitter.com/zackkanter/status/1201259377816027138

@icowrich @CejSe @thalia25123534 @BenGlasby1 @QandA More data. This time on curtailment.
Note that South Australia(yellow) is a small state, so these numbers are even more dramatic on a % basis. Also how do you propose the curtailed output get to the NSW-Victoria border, where Snowy 2.0 will be located? 8/×
nemlog.com.au/show/curtailme…

@icowrich @CejSe @thalia25123534 @BenGlasby1 @QandA The transmission lines don't exist(yet). And to build them will cost significantly more than the wind & solar project developers are prepared to carry the burden for.
This party is *over*. 10/10
afr.com/companies/ener…
assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/reso…