Looks like about 97 House freshmen. That’s a big number. Here’s my old blog post explaining House turnover rates in historical context and some general implications. I’m going to briefly talk here about some tentative implications for the 116th. /1
legislativeprocedure.com/blog/2018/7/24…
legislativeprocedure.com/blog/2018/7/24…
First, a large number of freshman has strong potential to influence the institutional structure of the House and the majority caucus. This happened quite clearly in 1974 (Watergate babies) and 1994 (Gingrich GOP), and also in 2010 (Tea Party).
Note the last two of these coincided with changes in partisan control. That’s an independent effect, here we are just talking about what a large group of freshmen does, in and of itself.
The most obvious result is that you have a large number of inexperienced legislators. How they become socialized to the House matters. Will they see themselves as party soldiers (1994) or as distinct from the party leadership (2010).
Right now, it *feels* like the new Dems will be more like 1994 Style soldiers than 2010 Tea Partiers, but that’s just a guess based. They are pretty diverse—-some safe seaters, lots of moderates.
Second, do they organize asa conscious class of distinct interests? This is tied to how they are socialized and see themselves. The Tra Partiers organized and fought for rules changes that gave them more power in the GOP caucus then the leadership had originally proposed.
Even if they don’t consciously organize as a party faction, does Pelosi or other leaders feel the need to give them extra attention for committee or leadership slots in order to keep them in the fold for leadership elections?
And that’s third—is anyone going to try to make a play for them in a fight against Pelosi for Speaker, or a challenge for other leader slots? Doesn’t seem to likely right now. But who knows; lots of moving parts as existing factions struggle for January power.
Lastly, how easily do the new members adopt the norms of the existing House? Do they take DC chiefs of staff or install home district types? Do they follow norms of party on the Speaker vote, or extend trend of protest votes?
The future of the House, and the country, is now partially in their hands. Welcome to the new political world, 116th freshman. Good luck and God bless!
