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Some thoughts about what’s been happening on the streets of Paris. Macron has faced down waves of strikes and street protests since his election 18 months ago. But this one is very different 1/11
The gilet jaunes (yellow vests) movement began as a protest by those who drive long distances to work against higher green taxes on diesel. But it has since captured a far broader anger against Macron 2/11
Protestors represent France’s squeezed middle: incomes are too high for full welfare benefits, but too low to make ends meet. They are angry at Macron’s early tax cuts for the better-off, and a perception that he is indifferent to ordinary people’s concerns 3/11
Most gilets jaunes, manning blockades on roundabouts across provincial France, are peaceful. Over the past three weekends, the numbers have dropped: from 280,000 countrywide to 136,000 on Saturday. But as the figures have fallen, the violence has intensified 4/11
The profile of those who took part in the violence is mixed. Some are organised ultra-right and ultra-left casseurs (agitators). But there was also a blurring of the lines. Organised anarchists/neo-fascists were joined by a minority of otherwise mostly peaceful gilets jaunes 5/11
The movement’s structureless and leaderless nature is both its strength and its weakness. It emerged via social media as a grass-roots protest. But internal rivalries, and anti-leadership feeling, are now clashing with attempts to put in place durable organisation 6/11
The gilets jaunes do not have a single demand. Some want the green tax on fuel to be overturned. Others want the president to resign, and the national assembly dissolved, in order to elect “real representatives of the people” 7/11
Attempts by the far-left (Mélenchon) and far-right (Marine Le Pen) to piggy-back on the gilets jaunes have failed. This is an anti-political movement that defies easy classification. Such populists are becoming part of the rejected establishment 8/11
This is the first real political crisis of Macron’s presidency. The power vested by the constitution in the French presidency makes him both the focus of inflated hopes, and of all anger 9/11
During his election campaign Macron was himself the leader of a (peaceful) political insurrection, based on revolutionary imagery, against France’s established parties. Now the rebellion is against him 10/11
Macron faces no easy options. He has styled himself as a leader who does not give in to the street. But he cannot afford to appear indifferent to a movement backed by a majority of the French. How he handles it will probably determine his presidency 11/11
