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Brad DeLong 🖖🏻 @delong
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@Noahpinion @BCAppelbaum EMH is a reasonable theory of short run _returns_. It is a lousy theory of values. And it is an even lousy her theory of price movements. Fans and co’s inability to distinguish between those three at all eas what convinced me they were morons... 1/
@Noahpinion @BCAppelbaum Also Merton, Scholes, and Fama’s is pretending that there was an EMH explanation for black Monday in 1987 2/
@Noahpinion @BCAppelbaum Also their trying to do macro 3/END
@Noahpinion @BCAppelbaum Perhaps this is best explained by resorting to Isaiah Berlin’s metaphor of hedgehogs and foxes. Foxes are useful and valuable to listen to because they know a lot about a complicated world. Hedgehogs know one thing and have negative knowledge of the rest of the world. 1/
@Noahpinion @BCAppelbaum Hedgehogs are poisonous morons to corrupt your mind. Hedgehogs can be useful in the information ecology if the one thing they know is underweighted In the intellectual portfolio. But that they can be useful does not make them smart, & definitely does not make them wise 2/END
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@dashching The—unprofessional—Republican economists committed not just to wage increases, but to a particular mechanism for wage increases: (1) U.S. a small open economy -> (2) tax cuts produce a huge jump in investment -> (3) faster growth -> (4) factor shares revert -> (5) higher wages 1/
@dashching To see whether this argument makes sense we can—and should—look at this causal mechanism at every one of its five steps. Simply focusing on (5) alone leaves vulnerability to the parry of "this is a long-run process". And & being able to say a decade hence that it did not work 2/
@dashching is of little use in the policy debate now. Better, I think, to say everything:

1. U.S not a small open economy
2. No sign of any jump in investment
3. Growth boost small and driven by Keynesian demand rather than by (nonexistent) supply-side investment jump

3/
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@haroldpollack @DinaPomeranz @priyavshan @TrevonDLogan @dynarski @causalinf I find myself thinking back to my first year in graduate school, when someone in authority—I think is was department chair Mike Spence—said: "When you are a TA, never hit on the undergrads. It is unfair to them. They cannot know whether you just find them cute or whether you 1/
@haroldpollack @DinaPomeranz @priyavshan @TrevonDLogan @dynarski @causalinf are trying to extort sex from them by withholding the teaching, advising, mentorship that is their due. Moreover, your knowledge of your own psychology is so poor that not only can they not know, you cannot know either. Just don't do it." That is not a hard concept to grasp. 2/
@haroldpollack @DinaPomeranz @priyavshan @TrevonDLogan @dynarski @causalinf That is something that should be obvious to everyone who ever finds themself in some position of authority or influence. It is trivial to recognize that, as it is trivial to recognize that there is a point at which you cannot be just one of the guys-and-gals no matter how much 3/
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TRUMP COMMITTED AT LEAST ONE FELONY according to his own Justice Dept in sentencing memos filed against Michael Cohen by the SDNY yesterday.

Cohen broke campaign finance law
“in coordination with and
AT THE DIRECTION OF” Trump.

Amazingly, that wasn’t the only bombshell... 1)
Mueller can produce evidence that Paul Manafort lied to fed investigators about his contacts with a Russian Spy and Trump officials, according to sentencing memos filed against Manafort.

THIS IMPLICATES TRUMP AND FAMILY MEMBERS IN A CONSPIRACY.
2)
#THEORY
Trump likely perjured himself in written answers to the Special Counsel’s questions last month, assuming he had the cover of Manafort’s lies.

Mueller waited to reveal that he had the receipts of Manafort’s lies, giving Trump rope to hang himself.
3)
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Even if you know your district is solid blue...

RUN UP THE SCORE!

Every single person must vote regardless of polls or past contests.
I want people taking 3 pointers even when they are up 50 in the last 2 minutes.

Up 3 touchdowns? Go deep and pad your stats.

I want you stealing bases when you are up 8 runs in the 9th.

RUN UP THE SCORE.
I want some districts so blue, they don't even bother contesting them next time.
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Can someone explain to me when the @GOP stopped ignoring fiscal responsibility?
Can someone explain to me why @GOP claimed to be the party of Moral Values but continues to support a person like @realDonaldTrump?

#values
Can you explain to me why you wouldn't want another party in power for the Senate or House when you believe in the Constitution and checks and balances?

#ChecksAndBalances
#Midterms2018
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Short/immediate term bullish. Mid term bearish. Long term bullish. Bear market is not even remotely over. #crypto
7150 is next resistance. As clear as a Buenos Aires summer sky. The plan is for 7150 to get run over. Exit then. I do not short resistance. Below 6850 either flat or short.
I'm in BTC and ETH trades at the moment. Enjoying the green but nothing spectacular. Alts are flying. Rarely trade alts, although sometimes do so. For two reasons: lack of time, and liquidity too low for my taste. That said when I trade alts I use the bitcoin chart as my guide.
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#Probablemente ([#EO]#probable🍀/[#EN]#Probably🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿)
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Je découvre avec bonheur que Maman a acheté des verres de ce type, ce qui m’amène à vous faire un thread sur

LE CÉLÈBRE VERRE À FACETTES SOVIÉTIQUE
Le verre à facettes (гранёный стакан) a été créé pendant le blocus de Leningrad (1943) par Vera Moukhina, la sculptrice qui a aussi fait « Le travailleur et la kolkhozienne ». D’ailleurs, si on empile 476 verres ça fait la même hauteur !!! #coïncidence???
La valeur de ces verres à facettes soviétiques dépendait du nombre de facettes mais ils faisaient toujours la même contenance, une contenance d’ailleurs idéale pour partager une bouteille de vodka à 3 quand Khrouchtchev en eut interdit la vente par quantité libre
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#Zurich #GCHQ #help2buy #values #So #Voters #NoSiree #Doesnt #POTENTIAL #YJweek18 #facebook #man #trademark #THROUGHOUT #ProjectFear #Tesco #EUWithdrawalAct #UKJusticeSystem #lemonde #BRK #AccidentsWillHappen #EC #PeurtoRico #shares #freebie

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