Thread by @BensOscarMath

0/91: Here is my 91-part analysis of the 91st Academy Awards nominations.

1/91: BEST PICTURE
96% of Best Picture winners have a Best Director nomination. 90% have a screenplay nomination. 82% were up for Best Film Editing. Only @BlacKkKlansman, @The_Favourite, and @ViceMovie got all three of those.

2/91: This is the second Best Picture nomination for A Star Is Born, following the one for the 1937 version. Five other titles have multiple Best Picture nominations:
-Cleopatra
-Mutiny on the Bounty
-Romeo and Juliet
-Heaven Can Wait
-Moulin Rouge

3/91: @TheBlackPanther is the first superhero movie to be nominated for Best Picture in Oscar history. (That said, genre is subjective. Some would count Star Wars, for instance.)

4/91: Box Office results of 2018 Best Picture nominees (Note: @RomaCuaron was released on @Netflix, and so can't be measured the same way as the others.)

5/91: This is the first time the words Book and Favourite (either spelling) have appeared in Best Picture titles. Though “Book” is part of a compound in Silver Linings Playbook.

6/91: Dede Gardner (@ViceMovie) earns her 6th Best Picture nomination, tying Eric Fellner and Stanley Kramer for 4th place all-time. Only Steven Spielberg (10), Scott Rudin (9), and Kathleen Kennedy (8) have more.

7/91: My mathematical model for @THR correctly predicted the top seven Best Picture nominees. For the eighth spot, it was neck-and-neck between Bohemian Rhapsody and If Beale Street Could Talk, and @BoRhapMovie came out ahead.

8/91: BEST DIRECTOR
Every Best Director winner since 1949 first got a Directors Guild nomination. That effectively narrows the field down to 3: @AlfonsoCuaron (@RomaCuaron), Spike Lee (@BlacKkKlansman), Adam McKay (@ViceMovie).

9/91: @AlfonsoCuaron previously won Best Director for Gravity (2013). If he wins again for @RomaCuaron, he would join Frank Borzage (7th Heaven in 1928, Bad Girl in 1932) as the only multi-time winners without a loss.

10/91: Two foreign language films (@RomaCuaron, @ColdWarMovie) are nominated for Best Director. That has happened twice before:
1976: Face to Face, Seven Beauties
2006: Letters from Iwo Jima, Babel
No foreign language film has ever won Best Director.

11/91: Of the six directors above 50%, four of them heard their names called. Pawel Pawlikowski (@ColdWarMovie) pulls off the upset to join the list of five.

12/91: BEST ACTOR
Since the creation of the SAG Awards in 1994, every Best Actor winner first got a SAG nom. That narrows the Oscar field down to Christian Bale (@ViceMovie), Bradley Cooper (@StarIsBornMovie), @ItsRamiMalek (@BoRhapMovie), and Viggo Mortensen (@GreenBookMovie).

13/91: Bradley Cooper (@StarIsBornMovie) and Viggo Mortensen (@GreenBookMovie) each earned their third Best Actor nomination of the last dozen years. Six others have done that:
-Daniel Day-Lewis
-Denzel Washington
-George Clooney
-Johnny Depp
-@LeoDiCaprio
-Sean Penn

14/91: Christian Bale (@ViceMovie) is the second actor to be nominated for portraying a sitting Vice President, following James Whitmore in Give ’Em Hell, Harry! (1975), in which his role of Harry Truman briefly covers his time as VP.

15/91: With Bradley Cooper’s Best Actor nom, “Cooper” moves into 4th on most common last names of acting noms:
-Streep: 21 (Meryl 21)
-Davis: 18 (Bette 11, Viola 3, Geena 2, Judy 2)
-Hepburn: 17 (Katharine 12, Audrey 5)
-Cooper: 14 (Gary 5, Bradley 4, Gladys 3, Chris 1, Jackie 1)

16/91: If Christian Bale (@ViceMovie) wins Best Actor, he would become the 5th male actor with a win and multiple nominations in both the lead and supporting categories. Others:
-Denzel Washington
-Gene Hackman
-Jack Nicholson
-Robert De Niro

17/91: @ItsRamiMalek (@BoRhapMovie) has a chance to become the first person ever to win the Oscar for Best Actor and the Emmy for Best Lead Actor in a Drama, which he won for @WhoIsMrRobot.

18/91: The math identified four clear favorites, and all four got nominated. It was a tight race for the last spot, with Willem Dafoe coming out ahead.

19/91: BEST ACTRESS
Since the creation of the SAG Awards in 1994, every Best Actress winner first got a SAG nomination. That narrows the Oscar field down to Glenn Close (The Wife), Olivia Colman (@The_Favourite), @LadyGaga (@StarIsBornMovie), and @MelissaMcCarthy (@CYEFM).

20/91: This is Glenn Close’s (The Wife) 7th acting nomination, meaning she now has the most nominations of any actress without a win, passing Deborah Kerr and Thelma Ritter, and staying one ahead of Amy Adams (@ViceMovie).

21/91: The two leads in A Star Is Born, if considered to be the same characters as in the earlier versions, are the 3rd and 4th characters in film history to be nominated three times. The others are King Henry VIII and Queen Elizabeth I.

22/91: Like with Best Actor, my model tabbed four runaway favorites, and all four are in. The fifth spot goes to @YalitzaAparicio (@RomaCuaron).

23/91: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
23 of last 24 Supp Actor winners got SAG nominations. Only exception: Christoph Waltz (2012). This year’s SAG/Oscar overlaps: Mahershala Ali (@GreenBookMovie), Adam Driver (@BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliott (@StarIsBornMovie), Richard E. Grant (@CYEFM).

24/91: Mahershala Ali (@GreenBookMovie) is going for his 2nd Best Supporting Actor win, after Moonlight (2016). Others who have achieved that:
-Walter Brennan (3 wins)
-@TheMichaelCaine
-Melvyn Douglas
-Anthony Quinn
-Jason Robards
-Peter Ustinov
-Christoph Waltz

25/91: @RealChalamet (@BeautifulBoyMov) joins Daniel Bruhl (Rush) as the only Supporting Actor/Actress contenders nominated by the Golden Globes, SAGs, BAFTAs, and Critics Choice Awards to be left out by the Academy. Sam Rockwell takes his spot in the top five.

26/91: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This is Amy Adams’ (@ViceMovie) 5th Supporting Actress nomination, behind only Thelma Ritter’s 6. Ritter lost all 6, and Adams has yet to win. #OscarNoms

27/91: Emma Stone (@The_Favourite) becomes the 4th actress this decade with a win on 3+ nominations, joining Jennifer Lawrence, Meryl Streep, and @OctaviaSpencer.

28/91: Rachel Weisz (@The_Favourite), who previously won for The Constant Gardner (2005), could join Dianne West and Shelley Winters as the only two-time Supporting Actress champions.

29/91: @The_Favourite is the 35th movie to receive multiple Supporting Actress nominations, and the first since The Help (2011). That seven-year gap is the longest in history between films with 2+ Supporting Actress contenders.

30/91: The four most likely nominees all made Tuesday morning’s shortlist. Marina de Tavira (@RomaCuaron) pulls off the shocking nomination despite no other nominations from any other domestic critic groups or award bodies.

31/91: BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
No film has won Best Original Screenplay without a WGA nomination since The Usual Suspects (1995), excluding WGA-ineligible films. @GreenBookMovie, @RomaCuaron, and @ViceMovie are the three overlaps this year, and @The_Favourite was WGA-ineligible.

32/91: Adam McKay (@GhostPanther, @ViceMovie) could be 14th scribe to win both screenplay races. Others:
Robert Benton
Charles Brackett
Paddy Chayefsky
Joel & Ethan Coen
Francis Ford Coppola
Horton Foote
Bo Goldman
William Goldman
Ring Lardner
Alan Lerner
Waldo Salt
Billy Wilder

33/91: @FirstReformed will try to become the first screenplay nominee (original or adapted) to win a screenplay race in which it’s the only non-Best Picture nominee.

34/91: My statistical model for @THR goes 5/5 on Best Original Screenplay.

35/91: BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Eric Roth (@StarIsBornMovie) receives his 5th Adapted Screenplay nomination (he won for Forrest Gump), tying Michael Wilson and Richard Brooks for 3rd most all time. Only Billy Wilder (7) and John Huston (6) have more.

36/91: Spike Lee (@BlacKkKlansman) is nominated 29 years after Do the Right Thing, tying Julius Epstein (Casablanca, Pete ‘n’ Tillie) for the 3rd longest gap b/w writing noms.
David Lean (Great Expectations, Passage to India) 37
Larry McMurtry (Last Picture Show, Brokeback Mt) 34

37/91: Four of the top five data-based favorites made the Adapted Screenplay nominee list. Black Panther was left off in favor of The Ballad of Buster Scruggs.

38/91: BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
@BAFTA and @ProducersGuild have at least nominated every Best Animated Feature winner since they added animated categories. Their three overlaps - @TheIncredibles 2, @IsleOfDogsMovie, and Spider-Man: Into the @SpiderVerse - lead the pack.

39/91: Clark Spencer (@WreckItRalph 2) is going for his 2nd Animated Feature Oscar after Zootopia. He would tie the record for most wins, and become the first person with two wins over a three-year span.

40/91: BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
This is the second year in a row the Producers Guild winner (Jane, Won’t You Be My Neighbor) was left off the Academy’s nominations. This opens the door for Free Solo, @RBGmovie, and others.

41/91: BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
After the @GoldenGlobes didn’t nominated The Secret in Their Eyes (2009) for Best Foreign Film, they’ve nominated each of the last 8 Oscar winners. Capernaum, Never Look Away, @RomaCuaron, and @ShopliftersFilm got Golden Globe nods this year.

42/91: @RomaCuaron is the fifth film nominated for both Best Foreign Language Film and Best Picture (Z, Life Is Beautiful, Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon, Amour). All four of those won Foreign Language Film; none won Best Picture.

43/91: @ShopliftersFilm is Japan’s 16th nomination for Best Foreign Language film, tying Sweden for 4th place. Only France (39), Italy (31), and Spain (19) have more.

44/91: @RomaCuaron is Mexico’s 9th Foreign Language Film nomination, though they’re still looking for their first win. That’s one shy of Israel’s leading 10 nominations without an Oscar.

45/91: If you combine West Germany, East Germany, and unified Germany’s nominations, Never Look Away is the 20th nomination for Germany, behind only France (39) and Italy (31).

46/91: BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Other than The Hateful Eight (2015), each Best Score winner of the last 15 years was also a Best Picture nominee. @TheBlackPanther and @BlacKkKlansman look to continue that streak. #Oscars

47/91: @MarcShaiman (@MaryPoppins Returns) is an Oscar shy of becoming the 16th EGOT winner, with a Tony and Grammy for Hairspray and an Emmy for his work on the Oscars telecast. This is Shaiman’s 6th try at an Oscar.

48/91: Alexandre Desplat (@IsleOfDogsMovie) joins John Williams and Andre Previn as the only living composers with multiple wins and 10+ nominations for Best Score.

49/91: BEST ORIGINAL SONG
@TheBlackPanther is the first superhero movie with a Best Original Song nomination.

50/91: @LadyGaga is the 10th person w/ noms for both Best Song and a non-musical category in the same year.
-Irving Berlin ’38, ’42
-Alan Jay Lerner ’51, ’58
-Jacques Demy ’65
-@MelBrooks ’74
-@QuincyDJones ’85
-Fran Walsh ’03
-Sylvain Chomet ’03
-Spike Jonze ’13
-@MaryJBlige ’17

51/91: “Shallow” (@StarIsBornMovie) and “All the Stars” (@TheBlackPanther) are the first songs since “Lose Yourself” (8 Mile, 2002) to be nominated for both Song of the Year at the Grammys and Best Original Song at the Oscars.

52/91: Song noms from documentaries:
I’ll Fight (@RBGMovie)
The Empty Chair (Jim)
Manta Ray (Racing Extinction)
Til It Happens to You (Hunting Ground)
I’m Not Gonna Miss You (Glen Campbell)
Before My Time (Chasing Ice)
I Need to Wake Up (Inconvenient Truth)
More (Mondo Cane)

53/91: YouTube links to the Best Song nominees:
All the Stars:
I’ll Fight:
The Place Where Lost Things Go:
Shallow:
When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings:

54/91: BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
In the last 22 years, Sweeney Todd (2007) is the only Best Production Design winner without a @BAFTA nomination. @The_Favourite, @FirstManMovie, @MaryPoppins, and @RomaCuaron are both BAFTA and Oscar nominees.

55/91: John Myhre (@MaryPoppins Returns) becomes the 5th production designer since the modern rules were adopted in 1967 to have multiple wins on 6+ nominations. Others:
-Stuart Craig
-Dante Ferretti
-Francesca Lo Schiavo
-Norman Reynolds

56/91: BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Three Best Cinematography noms are foreign language films (@ColdWarMovie, Never Look Away, @RomaCuaron). That has happened once before, in 2004, when House of Flying Daggers, The Passion of the Christ, and A Very Long Engagement were up for the award.

57/91: @AlfonsoCuaron (@RomaCuaron) is the first person to be nominated for Best Cinematography for a film he or she directed. The only other person to ever be nominated in both categories (in different years) was Jack Cardiff. No one has ever won both categories.

58/91: BEST FILM EDITING
This is the first time in 15 years that all Best Film Editing nominations are only assigned to one editor each (that is, there are no shared nominations). That year, Lord of the Rings III won the category. #OscarNominations

59/91: BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The BAFTAs have nominated every Best Visual Effects Oscar winner since The Matrix (1999). So look for one of @Avengers, @FirstManMovie, or @ReadyPlayerOne to be this year's champion.

60/91: Dan Sudick (@Avengers: Infinity War) receives his 9th Visual Effects nomination, passing Nathan Levinson for most nominations without a win.

61/91: @ChrisCorbould1 (@DisneyCRobin) gets his 5th VFX nomination. His brother Neil (@NCeffects) has 5, and their brother Paul has 2. If my research is correct, this total of 12 nominations is the most among any set of three siblings in Oscar history (where each has at least 1).

62/91: Paul Lambert (@FirstManMovie) will try to win back-to-back VFX #Oscars, something only 7 people have accomplished:
Jim Rygiel, Randall Cook, Joe Letteri, Alex Funke: Lord of the Rings
Farciot Edouart, Gordon Jennings, Louis Mesenkop: I Wanted Wings/Reap the Wild Wind

63/91: BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Sandy Powell (@The_Favourite, @MaryPoppins) has 2 noms, her 3rd time achieving that (Shakespeare in Love/Velvet Goldmine '98; Carol/Cinderella '15). Since the modern category rules were set in '67, all other designers combined have only done this twice.

64/91: These are Sandy Powell’s 13th and 14th nominations, tying her with Jean Louis for 4th most all-time. Only Edith Head (35), Charles LeMaire (16), and Irene Sharaff (15) have more.

65/91: @IAmRuthECarter (@TheBlackPanther) returns to the Oscars, 21 years after her last nomination for Amistad. Only 2 longer gaps b/w noms in costume history:
-Eloiss Jenssen: Samson and Deliliah (1950) to Tron (1982)
-Patricia Norris: Sunset (1988) to 12 Years a Slave (2013)

66/91: BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
In the last 7 years of the Makeup and Hairstylists Guild Awards, the Oscar winner has come from among @Local_706’s Period/Character Makeup nominees. @MaryQueenMovie is the only overlap this year.

67/91: This is Greg Cannom’s (@ViceMovie) 10th Best Makeup/Hair nomination, one shy of @TheRickBaker for the most all-time. Cannom is going for his 4th win, which would put him in sole possession of 2nd place behind Baker’s 7.

68/91: BEST SOUND EDITING
No movie has won Best Sound Editing with fewer than 5 total nominations since The Bourne Ultimatum (2007). If that trend holds, the winner is @TheBlackPanther, @BoRhapMovie, or @RomaCuaron.

69/91: Ethan Van der Ryn (@QuietPlaceMovie), who previously won Sound Editing for Lord of the Rings II and King Kong, joins Richard King, Richard Hymns, Gary Rydstrom, Alan Murray, George Watters, Ben Burtt, Bub Asman, & Christopher Boyes as sound editors with 2+ wins & 6+ noms.

70/91: @RomaCuaron is the 4th foreign language film nominated for Best Sound Editing, following:
-Das Boot (1982)
-Apocalypto (2006)
-Letters from Iwo Jima (2006)

71/91: BEST SOUND MIXING
This is Frank Montaño’s (@FirstManMovie) 9th Sound Mixing nomination since 1990. Only five people have more:
Andy Nelson: 20
Kevin O'Connell: 16
Greg P. Russell: 15
Michael Semanick: 11
Anna Behlmer: 10

72/91: SHORT FILM CATEGORIES
All live-action short nominee titles are one word long. That has never happened before.

73/91: MULTI-CATEGORY
@AlfonsoCuaron (@RomaCuaron) is nominated in 5 categories. This is the new record for most categories nominated in, and for most nominations for one person on one film. It’s one shy of Walt Disney’s record for most nominations in one year.

74/91: Here are the nomination totals for films with more than one nomination.

75/91: Total tally for my nominee predictions (thr.cm/fmK8sK): 35/43.

76/91: @TheBlackPanther joins Titanic (1997) and La La Land (2016) as the only films nominated for Best Picture, Score, Song, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Production Design, and Cinematography.

77/91: @BlacKkKlansman is the 3rd movie of the last 15 years nominated for Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Score, and Film Editing. The others are Lincoln (2012) and Moonlight (2016).

78/91: @BoRhapMovie is the first film to be nominated for Best Picture, Actor, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Film Editing and nothing else.

79/91: @The_Favourite is the fourth film nominated for Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Costume Design, and Film Editing. Others:
-Reds (1981)
-Shakespeare in Love (1998)
-The Shape of Water (2017)

80/91: @GreenBookMovie matches Jerry Maguire’s (1996) Oscar resume: Nominations for Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, and nothing else. #Oscars2019

81/91: @RomaCuaron joins The Shape of Water (2017) as the only films in Oscar history nominated for Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Production Design, and Cinematography.

82/91: @StarIsBornMovie is the first film ever to be nominated for Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Song, Sound Editing, and Cinematography.

83/91: @ViceMovie is the first film nominated for Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Makeup & Hair, and Film Editing at the #Oscars.

84/91: This is the first time in Oscars history that there are more than 5 Best Picture nominees and all of them are nominated in at least 5 categories.

85/91: This is the first time in Oscars history that every Best Picture nominee has more nominations than every film not nominated for Best Picture. #OscarNoms

86/91: The Best Picture nominees collectively account for 48.8% of nominations in all categories. That's the 4th most all-time, behind 1934, 2010, and 1935.

87/91: This is the 6th Oscar ceremony without a host:
-1938 (Best Picture: You Can’t Take It with You)
-1968 (Oliver!)
-1969 (Midnight Cowboy)
-1970 (Patton)
-1988 (Rain Man)
-2018 (???)

88/91: HONORARY
Lalo Schifrin has five nominations for Best Score without a win. Among living composers, that’s the fourth most after Thomas Newman (13), Randy Newman (8), and James Newton Howard (6).

89/91: Kathleen Kennedy has 8 Best Picture nominations, the most all-time among producers without a win.

90/91: Kathleen Kennedy’s husband Frank Marshall has 5 Best Picture nominations, behind only Kennedy, Eric Fellner, and Stanley Kramer for most nominations without a win.

91/91: That wraps up my 91-part thread on the 91st Academy Awards nominations. Follow along throughout Oscar season for analysis of every awards show and how they affect the Oscar race. I’ll release percentages for 106 nominees in 21 categories on @THR next month.