Thread by @BensOscarMath

0/93: Here is my 93-part analysis of the 93rd Academy Award nominations.

1/93: BEST PICTURE
95% of Best Picture winners have a Best Director nomination. 95% have a screenplay nomination. 83% were up for Best Film Editing. Only Nomadland and Promising Young Woman got all three of those. There are your frontrunners.

2/93: The Trial of the Chicago 7 is the 3rd Best Picture nominee to include ‘Chicago’ (In Old Chicago; Chicago). This breaks a tie with ‘Paris’ (An American in Paris; Midnight in Paris) for the most times a city name has appeared in Best Picture titles.

3/93: Promising Young Woman marks the first time the word “Young” has appeared in a Best Picture title.

4/93: Minari is the 13th foreign language film to be nominated for Best Picture. None of them won the category until Parasite made history a year ago.

5/93: Frances McDormand (Nomadland) becomes the first person in history to have won the Triple Crown of Acting (Oscar, Emmy, Tony) who has also been nominated at the Oscars for Best Picture as a producer.

6/93: Frances McDormand (Nomadland) is the first actress to be nominated for both Best Picture as a producer and Best Actress or Supporting Actress in the same year.

7/93: Frances McDormand (Nomadland) joins Barbra Streisand and Oprah Winfrey as the only people with career nominations for Best Picture and Best Actress or Supporting Actress.

8/93: Eric Roth (Mank), making his debut as a film producer, becomes the 3rd producer to have a Best Picture nomination while also having 5+ nominations for Best Adapted Screenplay. The others are Billy Wilder and John Huston.

9/93: David Parfitt (The Father), who previously won for Shakespeare in Love, could become the 5th producer to have multiple wins and no losses for Best Picture:
Saul Zaentz (3/3)
Albert Ruddy (2/2)
Arthur Freed (2/2)
Branko Lustig (2/2)

10/93: Marc Platt (The Trial of the Chicago 7) is now the only person with 3 Best Picture nominations since 2016. His others were for Bridge of Spies (2015) and La La Land (2016).

11/93: Ceán Chaffin (Mank) becomes the 6th female producer with 3+ Oscar nominations for Best Picture:
-Dede Gardner
-Emma Tillinger Koskoff
-Fran Walsh
-Kathleen Kennedy
-Megan Ellison

12/93: Christina Oh is the only credited producer on Minari’s Best Picture nomination. Though once common, that has become increasingly rare: the last solo producer to win Best Picture was Thomas Langmann for The Artist (2011).

13/93: One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom are the 2nd and 3rd movies in the expanded Best Picture category era to receive Producers Guild, SAG, AFI, and Critics Choice nominations but not an Oscar nod. The first was The Big Sick (2017).

14/93: Eight of the top 12 get in for Best Picture, including all of the top 5, but One Night in Miami’s omission is the big surprise of the morning.

15/93: BEST DIRECTOR
The first 90 winners of Best Director were English-language films. There could now be 3 foreign-language winners in a row, if Minari or Another Round can follow up on Roma’s and Parasite’s wins.

16/93: This is the 4th time that two foreign-language films (Minari, Another Round) are nominated for Best Director. The first three:
-1976: Face to Face, Seven Beauties
-2006: Letters from Iwo Jima, Babel
-2018: Roma, Cold War

17/93: Of the seven female directors to be nominated for Best Director, two of them are from this year, the first time multiple female directors have been nominated in the same year:
-Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
-Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)

18/93: Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) and Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) are the 6th and 7th directors of Asian descent to be nominated for Best Director. Ang Lee was nominated three times and won twice; Bong Joon-ho won last year.

19/93: David Fincher (Mank), who was also nominated for Benjamin Button and The Social Network, becomes the 7th director this century with 3+ nominations:
Martin Scorsese (6)
Alejandro G. Inarritu
Ang Lee
Clint Eastwood
David O. Russell
Stephen Daldry

20/93: Four of five most likely Best Director nominees make the cut, but Thomas Vintergberg (Another Round) gets the unlikely nomination over Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7).

21/93: BEST ACTOR
Gary Oldman (Mank) joins Bradley Cooper, Denzel Washington, and Leonardo DiCaprio as the only four actors with 3 Best Actor nominations this past decade. Only Oldman (Darkest Hour) and DiCaprio (The Revenant) won one of those nominations.

22/93: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) is the 6th posthumous Best Actor nominee, following:
James Dean: East of Eden (1955) & Giant (1956)
*Peter Finch: Network (1976)
Spencer Tracy: Guess Who's Coming to Dinner (1967)
Massimo Troisi: Il Postino (1995)
*Won Oscar

23/93: Anthony Hopkins (The Father) ties Denzel Washington and Leonardo DiCaprio for the most acting nominations (6) among male actors since 1990. Each of the three has won exactly one of those – Hopkins won for The Silence of the Lambs.

24/93: Anthony Hopkins (The Father) is the 10th person to be nominated for Supporting Actor in one year then Actor the following year. Only one of the first nine won Best Actor: Gene Hackman for The French Connection.

25/93: The four clear frontrunners for Best Actor all make the cut, with Steven Yeun (Minari) rounding out the group.

26/93: BEST ACTRESS
Frances McDormand (Nomadland) is going for her 3rd Best Actress win, following Fargo and Three Billboards. That would put her alone in second place, behind Katharine Hepburn with 4.

27/93: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) joins Cate Blanchett, Kate Winslet, Meryl Streep, and Michelle Williams as the only people with multiple Best Actress and multiple Best Supporting Actress nominations this century.

28/93: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is the 20th film to be nominated for Best Actor and Actress but not Best Picture, and only the 3rd among years with more than 5 Best Picture nominees. The other 2 were The Guardsman (1932) and My Man Godfrey (1936).

29/93: 5-for-5 -- My mathematical model for @THR predicts all five Best Actress nominees.

30/93: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Leslie Odom Jr (One Night in Miami) is the 8th Tony winner for Best Actor in a Musical to have an Oscar nomination for Supporting Actor.
-Thomas Mitchell
-Robert Preston
-Jackie Gleason
-Richard Burton
-Christopher Plummer
-Kevin Kline
-John Lithgow

31/93: Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah) is the first person since Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street, 2013) to receive a Best Supporting Actor nomination without being nominated by the Golden Globes, SAG, BAFTA, or Critics Choice Awards.

32/93: Four of the five mathematical predictions for Best Supporting Actor are now Oscar nominees. The fifth spot goes to Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah).

33/93: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) is only the second Best Supporting Actress nominee from a sequel. The first was Talia Shire (The Godfather Part II).

34/93: Olivia Colman (The Father) and/or Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) could become the 8th person with wins for Actress and Supporting Actress:
-Cate Blanchett
-Helen Hayes
-Ingrid Bergman
-Jessica Lange
-Maggie Smith
-Meryl Streep
-Renée Zellweger

35/93: Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari) is the 5th Supporting Actress nominee who spoke in the movie in a foreign language (three others were in sign language):
-Valentina Cortese (Day for Night)
-Adriana Barraza (Babel)
-Penélope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
-Marina de Tavira (Roma)

36/93: This Glenn Close’s (Hillbilly Elegy) 8th Oscar nomination. If she does not win, she would tie Peter O’Toole for the most acting nominations without a win.

37/93: Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) is the 3rd person nominated for an Oscar and a Razzie for the same role. Others:
-James Coco: Only When I Laugh (1981)
-Amy Irving: Yentl (1983)

38/93: No surprises for Best Supporting Actress. Six actresses were above 50%, and five of them heard their names called Monday morning.

39/93: BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This is the first time in Oscars history that all five Best Original Screenplay nominees are up for Best Picture.

40/93: Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) is the second woman to be nominated for producing, director, and writing (Original Screenplay) a movie. The first was Sofia Coppola for Lost in Translation (2003).

41/93: Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) has 4 screenplay nominations over the last 10 years. The only others to do that in any ten-year span over the last half century are Francis Ford Coppola, Woody Allen, Oliver Stone, and Joel & Ethan Coen.

42/93: Minari will try to become the 7th foreign-language script to win Best Original Screenplay. Others:
Marie-Louise (1945)
The Red Balloon (1956)
Divorce Italian Style (1962)
A Man and a Woman (1966)
Talk to Her (2002)
Parasite (2019)

43/93: Four of the five model predictions get Original Screenplay nominations, while Judas and the Black Messiah gets the fifth spot and Mank is left off the list.

44/93: BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) joins Greta Gerwig as the only women with nominations for both Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay.

45/93 Christopher Hampton (The Father) could become the 10th person with two wins for Best Adapted Screenplay, following his win for adapting his own play into Dangerous Liaisons (1988). No one has ever won three times.

46/93: Borat joins The Godfather and The Lord of the Rings as the only three franchises with multiple films nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay.

47/93: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7, Borat 2) is the first person in Oscars history to be nominated for writing and Supporting Actor/Actress in the same year – whether for the same film or different films.

48/93: Four of the top six Best Adapted Screenplay contenders make the cut, but Borat Subsequent Moviefilm pulls off the upset over Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.

49/93: BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The BAFTA Awards and the Producers Guild have at least nominated every Best Animated Feature winner since they added animated categories. Only overlaps with the Oscars: Onward, Soul, Wolfwalkers.

50/93: Soul is tied with Cars, Bolt, and Coco for the second-shortest title to be nominated for Best Animated Feature. The only shorter one is Up, which won the category.

51/93: Pixar (Soul, Onward) is the 5th studio to be the primary studio on 2 Animated Feature noms in the same year:
-Disney (02): Lilo & Stitch, Treasure Planet
-DreamWorks (04): Shark Tale, Shrek 2
-DreamWorks (11): Kung Fu Panda 2, Puss in Boots
-Disney (16): Zootopia, Moana

52/93: Pete Docter (Soul) earns his 4th Best Animated Feature nomination, following Monsters Inc, Up, and Inside Out. That breaks an eight-way tie; he’s now alone in first.

53/93: Shaun the Sheep Movie becomes the 7th franchise with multiple Best Animated Feature nominations. The others are Toy Story, How to Train Your Dragon, The Incredibles, Wreck-It Ralph, Kung Fu Panda, and Shrek.

54/93: BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
A year after Honeyland became the first film in Oscars history to be nominated for both Documentary Feature and International Film, Collective is now the second.

55/93: Time is tied for the third-shortest title in Best Documentary Feature history. Only Amy (2015) and RBG (2018) are shorter.

56/93: BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
After the Golden Globes didn’t nominate The Secret in Their Eyes (2009) for Best International Film, they’ve nominated each of the last 10 Oscar winners. Another Round is the only Oscar overlap this year.

57/93: Collective is Romania’s first Oscar nomination for Best International Feature Film, finally coming on its 36th submission. Only Portugal (37 submissions) has sent in more films without receiving a nomination.

58/93: Quo Vadis, Aida? Is the second Best International Feature nomination for Bosnia and Herzegovina. They’re 1/1, having won for their only nomination, No Man’s Land (2001). The only other countries to have never lost a nomination are South Korea and Ivory Coast.

59/93: Another Round is Denmark’s 13th nomination for Best International Feature, moving it into sole possession of 6th place, behind France (40), Italy (31), Spain (20), Japan (16), and Sweden (16).

60/93: The Man Who Sold His Skin is Tunisia’s first nomination for Best International Feature.

61/93: Better Days joins Raise the Red Lantern (1991) and Farewell My Concubine (1993) as the third Hong Kong movie to be nominated for Best International Feature.

62/93: Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) becomes the 4th person to direct two International Feature nominees in the past ten years. The others:
-Andrey Zvyagintsev
-Asghar Farhadi
-Paweł Pawlikowski

63/93: BEST SCORE
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (Mank, Soul w/ Jon Batiste) are the 3rd and 4th composers this century to have multiple Best Score nominations in the same year. The first two were Alexandre Desplat in 2014 and John Williams in 2001/2005/2011.

64/93: This is James Newton Howard’s (News of the World) 7th Best Score nomination. That ties him with Roy Webb for 4th most nominations without a win. Thomas Newman (0/14), Alex North (0/14), and Randy Newman (0/9) are the only ones with more.

65/93: Soul’s three nominated composers (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste) are the most since Mulan (1998) also had three, and tied for the most since The Color Purple (1985) had 12.

66/93: BEST SONG
H.E.R. (“Fight for You” – Judas and the Black Messiah) is the first artist to be nominated for the Grammy for Song of the Year and the Oscar for Best Song in the same year for different songs since Neil Young in 1994 (“Philadelphia,” “Harvest Moon”).

67/93: Diane Warren (“Io Si” – The Life Ahead) earns her 12th nom, but is still looking for her 1st win. That’s the 7th most noms without a win across all categories:
Greg P. Russell (16)
Alex North (15)
Roland Anderson (15)
Thomas Newman (15)
George Folsey (14)
Loren Ryder (14)

68/93: This is Diane Warren’s (“Io Si” – The Life Ahead) 4th year in a row being nominated for Best Song. The last person to do that was Randy Newman from 1998-2001. Warren herself also did it from 1996-99.

69/93: This is the 4th straight yr that someone has been nominated for both Best Song & an acting race:
2017: Mary J Blige (Mudbound)
2018: Lady Gaga (Star Is Born)
2019: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
2020: Leslie Odom Jr (One Night in Miami)
Before Blige, it had never happened before.

70/93: YouTube links to the Best Song nominees:
Speak Now:
Io Si:
Fight for You:
Hear My Voice:
Husavik:

71/93: BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nathan Crowley (Tenet, along with Kathy Lucas) now has 6 nominations for Best Production Design, tying him with Anna Pinnock, Katie Spencer, and Sarah Greenwood for the most this century. Of those four, only Pinnock has won an Oscar.

72/93: BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Across all five nominees, there is just one previous nomination (Trial of the Chicago 7’s Phedon Papamichael was up for Nebraska). Only the 2nd time that’s happened in the last 83 years. The other was 2016, when Linus Sandgren won for La La Land.

73/93: BEST EDITING
Alan Baumgarten (The Trial of the Chicago 7) joins William Goldenberg as the only film editors with both solo and shared nominations this past decade. Baumgarten was one of three editors nominated for American Hustle (2013).

74/93: BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Andrew Lockley (Tenet) could become the 3rd person (after Jim Rygiel and Randall Cook) to win Best Visual Effects 3 times without a loss. Lockley already won for Inception and Interstellar.

75/93: BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Alexandra Byrne (Emma) earns her 6th nomination for Best Costume Design. In the last quarter century, only Sandy Powell (14), Colleen Atwood (11), and Jacqueline Durran (7) have more.

76/93: BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
This is Matthew Mungle’s (Hillbilly Elegy, along with Eryn Krueger Mekash/Patricia Dehaney) 5th nomination for Best Makeup and Hairstyling, good for 5th place all-time:
1. Rick Baker (11)
2. Greg Cannom (10)
3. Ve Neill (8)
4. Michèle Burke (6)

77/93: BEST SOUND
This is the first time since 1987 that there is only one competitive award for sound. That year, The Last Emperor won Best Sound, and went on to go 9/9 including Best Picture.

78/93: Sound of Metal’s nomination for Best Sound is the 11th film containing a category name in the title to be nominated for that category, and the first since 1971.

79/93: Ren Klyce and David Parker (Soul, Mank) are the 11th and 12th people to have multiple Best Sound nominations in the same year among years with just one sound category. They’re the first to do it since 1977, when three people accomplished the feat.

80/93: MULTI-CATEGORY
Total number of nominations: 118
Number of nominated films: 56
Number of categories: 23
Average nominations per film: 2.1

81/93: Here are the nomination totals for films with more than one nomination.

82/93: Only one film (Mank) received more than 6 nominations. That’s only happened one other time in the last 73 years: 2005, when Brokeback Mountain received 8.

83/93: Seven films received 6 or more nominations. That’s only been topped twice: Both 1939 and 2019 had eight films apiece receiving 6+ nominations.

84/93: Mank is the 5th film (Schindler’s List, Titanic, Shakespeare in Love, Benjamin Button) nominated for Picture, Director, Production Design, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup, Score, Sound, and 2 acting awards.

85/93: Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) is the 6th person to receive 4 Oscar nominations for a single film:
Alan Manken – Beauty and the Beast (1991)
Alfonso Cuaron – Roma (2018)
Joel & Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men (2007)
Warren Beatty – Heaven Can Wait (1978) AND Reds (1981)

86/93: Chloe Zhao is personally represented on 67% of Nomadland’s 6 nominations. That ties Alan Manken’s record (67% of Beauty and the Beast’s nominations) for highest individual percentage across films with 5+ nominations.

87/93: This will be the 24th Oscar ceremony held in the month of April, yet the first since April 11, 1988. That year, The Last Emperor went 9/9, including a Best Picture win.

88/93: April 25 is the latest calendar date for the Oscars since November 18, 1932, when Grand Hotel won Best Picture despite having no other nominations.

89/93: This is the first time since the 6th Academy Awards (covering films from August 1, 1932, to December 31, 1933) that films from multiple calendar years are up against each other. This year’s eligibility window is January 1, 2020, to February 28, 2021.

90/93: For the first time in history, streaming films without a theatrical release are eligible for the Academy Awards.

91/93: This is the 4th postponed Oscar ceremony. The first three are as follows:
1938: LA flooding
1968: Assassination of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
1981: Attempted assassination of President Ronald Reagan

92/93: HONORARY
Tyler Perry will receive the Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award. Among many other films, he has credits on two Best Picture nominees: Precious (2009) as a producer, and Vice (2018) as an actor.

93/93: That wraps up my 93-part thread on the 93rd Academy Awards nominations. For more coverage:
-Follow @BensOscarMath on Twitter through awards season!
-Look for my predictions in The Hollywood Reporter (@THR)!
-Check out my book, Oscarmetrics! amazon.com/Oscarmetrics-B…