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In May 1940 Hitler knew Gamelin expected a thrust thru Belgium so he showed him what he expected to see by feinting in this area. But the true thrust was via the Ardennes. Gamelin was blinded hy himself. He saw what he wanted to see.
As George Gilder points out true information surprise. You intel should tell you what you don't know. If it fits your model too exactly and there's no error term take a good look at it again.
The most convincing disinformation will contain a few surprises to make it look real. A few flaws. The too perfect needs to be checked.
