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Mar 26, 2019 • 3 tweets • 1 min read
Weather as an excuse is the last refuge of a scoundrel, but I do not think there is much signal in the housing starts decline. The West was down 33%, due to one of the wettest months in history.
usatoday.com/story/news/nat…
google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j…

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More from @modestproposal1

modest proposal Profile picture
Feb 18
This article is titled "Wall Street Is Buying Starter Homes to Quietly Become America’s Landlord" and then the text of the article, focused on Phoenix, says:

"Most of the activity was driven by small landlords and home flippers"

bloomberg.com/news/features/…
Institutional investors prob own less than 500K single family rentals. While small time investors own something like 16M.
Investor purchased properties did make an all time high in Q4, but the trend has been modestly upward over time. And again, the vast majority of those purchases are not Wall Street.
Read 5 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Feb 11
Latest attempt at sizing the ad platforms*. These are my estimates and probably wrong. Posting Gross Profit $ first, because of different margin structures, and most people don't click to the second tweet in a thread, and I think GP$ are more important.

*ex TikTok
Here's ad platform revenue estimates. TikTok is supposedly $4B in 2021 and $12B in 2022 to put it into perspective.
An interesting way to look at it is by y/y change in dollars added to revenue. For instance, Google Search grew $12.8B in 2019, down almost 20% Y/Y. In 2021 it added $44.4B!

Snapchat is the only platform that on current estimates will grow dollars added in 2022 vs 2021.
Read 4 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Feb 11
Trying to make sense of this. In Feb 16, Zillow said they were involved in 3.1% of transaction sides in 2014 and 3.9% in 2015. Yesterday said were involved in 3% in 2021. So sides were down from 2015 to 2021 and PA revs as % of agent commissions generated are 33%, up from 10%. ImageImageImage
I don't know if its a different methodology or I'm doing something wrong. But now they are forecasting doubling transactions involved in to 6% by 2025. So would love to understand the trajectory from 2015 to now, to better handicap the likelihood of 2021 to 2025.
Zillow now says prior to 2019 they couldn't calculate the number of transactions that they were responsible for. But the fewer transactions they were responsible for, the higher the ratio of PA revs to commissions generated, meaning less upside in PA 4.0 and Flex etc. Image
Read 4 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Feb 1
fascinating thread on what *may* explain the huge gap between economic conditions and consumer confidence
As of July, the gap basically didn't exist
Cohn posits the gap opened up as the public recoiled at the Afghanistan withdrawal, not due to anything about the economy
Read 5 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Jan 29
Fantastic A-hed wsj.com/articles/metal…
When guests vis­ited Mr. Kilmis­ter’s home and were of­fered a drink, he of­ten handed them an en­tire bot­tle of Jack—as though it were a beer, Mr. Ol­liver said. He said the late Mr. Kilmis­ter was sel­dom drunk but car­ried on life with “an even-keeled buzz.”
Mr. Quint and his team cre­ated a blend of 40% bour­bon with 60% rye that would make for a spicy and pep­pery fla­vor pro­file. The re­sult­ing Slip­knot No. 9 is de­scribed by one re­viewer as “quite flo­ral, with notes of hon­ey­suckle and lily.”
Read 4 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Jan 21
This Q reiterates the point. They beat estimates in the most competitive market, and they announced price increases, so idea that competition is the problem doesnt hold IMO.

The longstanding question remains, what level of subs can be gained in APAC/LATAM at what price point.
Per a thread last week, Nathanson raising the issue that perhaps an ad supported mobile only tier is going to be necessary in EMs in order to get the type of penetration they expect.
Nathanson been for years "is streaming a good business". Like me asking is ecommerce a good business. In general, no! Streaming and ecomm for the median co are shittier businesses than linear tv/B&M retail. The winners are very valuable, because scale trumps inferior economics.
Read 5 tweets

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