Trying to make sense of this. In Feb 16, Zillow said they were involved in 3.1% of transaction sides in 2014 and 3.9% in 2015. Yesterday said were involved in 3% in 2021. So sides were down from 2015 to 2021 and PA revs as % of agent commissions generated are 33%, up from 10%.
I don't know if its a different methodology or I'm doing something wrong. But now they are forecasting doubling transactions involved in to 6% by 2025. So would love to understand the trajectory from 2015 to now, to better handicap the likelihood of 2021 to 2025.
Zillow now says prior to 2019 they couldn't calculate the number of transactions that they were responsible for. But the fewer transactions they were responsible for, the higher the ratio of PA revs to commissions generated, meaning less upside in PA 4.0 and Flex etc.
With PA revs to commissions generated at 33%, Flex is now seen more as a conversion driver than generating upside per transaction. The initial rationale I thought was that they were leaving money on the table, but that seems not the case. Need to drive transaction counts.
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Latest attempt at sizing the ad platforms*. These are my estimates and probably wrong. Posting Gross Profit $ first, because of different margin structures, and most people don't click to the second tweet in a thread, and I think GP$ are more important.
*ex TikTok
Here's ad platform revenue estimates. TikTok is supposedly $4B in 2021 and $12B in 2022 to put it into perspective.
An interesting way to look at it is by y/y change in dollars added to revenue. For instance, Google Search grew $12.8B in 2019, down almost 20% Y/Y. In 2021 it added $44.4B!
Snapchat is the only platform that on current estimates will grow dollars added in 2022 vs 2021.
When guests visited Mr. Kilmister’s home and were offered a drink, he often handed them an entire bottle of Jack—as though it were a beer, Mr. Olliver said. He said the late Mr. Kilmister was seldom drunk but carried on life with “an even-keeled buzz.”
Mr. Quint and his team created a blend of 40% bourbon with 60% rye that would make for a spicy and peppery flavor profile. The resulting Slipknot No. 9 is described by one reviewer as “quite floral, with notes of honeysuckle and lily.”
This Q reiterates the point. They beat estimates in the most competitive market, and they announced price increases, so idea that competition is the problem doesnt hold IMO.
The longstanding question remains, what level of subs can be gained in APAC/LATAM at what price point.
Per a thread last week, Nathanson raising the issue that perhaps an ad supported mobile only tier is going to be necessary in EMs in order to get the type of penetration they expect.
Nathanson been for years "is streaming a good business". Like me asking is ecommerce a good business. In general, no! Streaming and ecomm for the median co are shittier businesses than linear tv/B&M retail. The winners are very valuable, because scale trumps inferior economics.
“The final feature of the great superbubbles has been a sustained narrowing of the market and unique underperformance of speculative stocks, many of which fall as the blue chip market rises. This occurred in 1929, in 2000, and it is occurring now.“
Great note from @darioperkins on challenges of analyzing post covid economy:
"Much of the confusion about the current state of the economy has its origin in people trying to
apply classic business-cycle analysis to COVID-19 macro distortions... But this is not a business cycle"
"Faulty business-cycle analysis has unduly influenced inflation debate, rapid price gains assumed to be a sign of “overheating”. Yet GDP in most of the world is ~ where it was expected to be in the absence of pandemic... two years ago, the main debate was about a liquidity trap"
"In short, investors must be careful not to infer “new secular growth trends” from what might merely be “levels” effects associated with (and largely confined to) the pandemic."