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Feb 1 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
fascinating thread on what *may* explain the huge gap between economic conditions and consumer confidence
As of July, the gap basically didn't exist
Cohn posits the gap opened up as the public recoiled at the Afghanistan withdrawal, not due to anything about the economy
Running on competence and not delivering, against what should've been a pretty low bar after the last circus, is a common observation.

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More from @modestproposal1

modest proposal Profile picture
Jan 29
Fantastic A-hed wsj.com/articles/metal…
When guests vis­ited Mr. Kilmis­ter’s home and were of­fered a drink, he of­ten handed them an en­tire bot­tle of Jack—as though it were a beer, Mr. Ol­liver said. He said the late Mr. Kilmis­ter was sel­dom drunk but car­ried on life with “an even-keeled buzz.”
Mr. Quint and his team cre­ated a blend of 40% bour­bon with 60% rye that would make for a spicy and pep­pery fla­vor pro­file. The re­sult­ing Slip­knot No. 9 is de­scribed by one re­viewer as “quite flo­ral, with notes of hon­ey­suckle and lily.”
Read 4 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Jan 21
This Q reiterates the point. They beat estimates in the most competitive market, and they announced price increases, so idea that competition is the problem doesnt hold IMO.

The longstanding question remains, what level of subs can be gained in APAC/LATAM at what price point.
Per a thread last week, Nathanson raising the issue that perhaps an ad supported mobile only tier is going to be necessary in EMs in order to get the type of penetration they expect.
Nathanson been for years "is streaming a good business". Like me asking is ecommerce a good business. In general, no! Streaming and ecomm for the median co are shittier businesses than linear tv/B&M retail. The winners are very valuable, because scale trumps inferior economics.
Read 5 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Jan 20
“The final feature of the great superbubbles has been a sustained narrowing of the market and unique underperformance of speculative stocks, many of which fall as the blue chip market rises. This occurred in 1929, in 2000, and it is occurring now.“
No points for guessing who wrote it gmo.com/americas/resea…
Read 4 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Jan 12
Great note from @darioperkins on challenges of analyzing post covid economy:

"Much of the confusion about the current state of the economy has its origin in people trying to
apply classic business-cycle analysis to COVID-19 macro distortions... But this is not a business cycle"
"Faulty business-cycle analysis has unduly influenced inflation debate, rapid price gains assumed to be a sign of “overheating”. Yet GDP in most of the world is ~ where it was expected to be in the absence of pandemic... two years ago, the main debate was about a liquidity trap"
"In short, investors must be careful not to infer “new secular growth trends” from what might merely be “levels” effects associated with (and largely confined to) the pandemic."
Read 4 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Jan 10
Big Russ Hanneman Energy in the TURO S-1
need a name for unicorns with positive operating income
They are very clear in the document that Covid has helped them with rising awareness from both hosts and guests, and that the rental car shortage elevated pricing in the marketplace. Will be interesting to see how they message longer term margins.
Read 6 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Jan 10
this thread makes it pretty clear that housing supply situation has not improved, and thus estimates for HPA for 2022 are likely too low. given the gains of last few years, have to start to think about ramifications given another year of likely double digit HPA. so let's look.
Bill at @calculatedrisk has his detailed look at home prices and affordability. On this index, things are still moderately affordable but getting less so by the day.

calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/real-house-p…
On the demand side, Evercore calcs underproduction through 2025, and that's after the sever underproduction of the last decade
Read 9 tweets

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