Getting lecture ready for class today, and it's worth remembering this:

Dutch intelligence monitored a Russian hacker group beginning in 2014; they watched them target the US and hack DNC; and they documented their links to Russian intelligence

This is all documented. /1
At some point, Dutch intelligence had a real-time connection to US intelligence to feed them information on what this GRU-hacker group was doing.

By monitoring the group, they collected detailed info on what Kremkin security services were up to /2
So every day we sit around letting Fox News and WH propagandists and POTUS spawn and wikileaks lie to the American people about any of this, as if it is not factual, we are weakening ourselves in a war of subversion. /3
And it would be nice if Congressional Republicans would remember that.

And it would be nice if we -- all of us -- could remember who the adversary is, and what it has already cost us.

We pay more every day. /4

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More from @MollyMcKew

Feb 18
Before Russia started hostilities against the Georgians in 2008, they evacuated 80%+ of the civilian population of Tskhinvali and claimed the Georgians were responsible for massive civilian casualties (all claims later proven false)
Worth noting: in Georgia, this was done COVERTLY, not overtly, and I wonder at the difference here, whether it is for projection of threat.

(In Georgia, they needed civilians out of way so they wouldn’t clog up Roki tunnel during fighting, very different operational purpose)
Those 2008 evacs were run by Russian forces directly.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 14
Re-reading parts of “A Little War That Shook the World” — about the Russia-Georgia war in 2008 — and slightly depressed by how very now this section sounds if you swap out Georgia for Ukraine /1
But the frequency with which we forget that the point of the post Cold War security order is “to protect small states from the predatory behavior of more powerful ones” — we could all do with a refresher on this point /2
Also this, especially the second paragraph. Ukraine is not a “proxy war” — but we are a party to the conflict because of Russian objectives, and stepping back and pretending it isn’t our fight doubly misses the point /3
Read 4 tweets
Feb 11
Really interesting detail in the ASIO 🇦🇺 Annual Threat Assessment about a disrupted foreign interference plot targeting recent election

Lots of specific detail on how whole thing was structured to hide foreign origin and strings, keep targets ignorant /1

asio.gov.au/publications/s…
What’s so remarkable is that in places like the US where dark money can legally pour into elections — this could describe almost every PAC that is well organized /2
Worthy emphasizing:

“The perpetrators of foreign interference carefully hide their true motivations. But that does not mean politicians are powerless to protect themselves.” /3
Read 4 tweets
Feb 4
Let me say this a dozen different ways, I guess:

The century where everybody took turns negotiating away the futures of the people living between Russia and Germany/W Europe didn’t go so hot.

Don’t be one of the people trying to reboot it into “pragmatism” when it is monstrous.
If you argue for equal rights and freedoms and opportunities for every American, you should be able to support the same for other in other nations fighting for it.

Literally fighting for it — and to protect us and what we have, over here across this big safe ocean.
If you want to know why Ukraine has earned the right to seek to be in NATO and to have that door open when they come — study the Holodomor, when Stalin starved Ukraine as a tool of internal control, and millions died.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 28
Before Russia invaded Georgia, the Kremlin found a lot of ways to seed the narrative that the war was because Saakashvili was annoying & didn’t listen to the West.

The 2022 reboot is that the war is because Zelensky is annoying & doesn’t listen.

The war is because of Russia. /1
A lot of effort is being made to create division — or the perception of division that will become real division — between the Ukrainian leadership and the allies it needs now, especially in the White House. /2
I’m sure there’s lots to say about Zelensky’s ZFG style

But he has been clear about what Ukraine needs

None of this is about him

It is about what the Kremlin sees as an opportunity to get this White House to pressure Zelensky to make the concessions Russia needs in Ukraine /3
Read 6 tweets
Jan 26
Broad range of views on what could happen next with Russia & what the US must do represented in @POLITICOMag, including from Lilia Shevtsova, Fiona Hill, @EvelynNFarkas, @steven_pifer, and more. Some of my thoughts included in this mix: /1

politico.com/news/magazine/…
What will Putin do next? /2
What would surprise people about Putin? /3
Read 6 tweets

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