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Kevin Holloway
@Kevin_Holloway
, 11 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Thoughts on Disney+ $DIS

Netflix vs DIS

This is not a zero sum game (esp w/ DIS+ at $6.99/mo) Both NFLX & DIS can be successful. DIS+ will have massively popular branded content in Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars. Netflix will continue to have ALL types of content for everyone
Side tangent: “There’s nothing on Netflix” or “Netflix content is crap” is BS. They have good, bad, scripted, unscripted, hit originals, “originals”, foreign shows, docs, comedy specials, “bad” movies/shows & critically acclaimed movies/shows. Everything. It’s a freakin bargain
It’s a deal:

As a parent DIS+ is a deal. Per @ballmatthew DVD sales are $24/yr per household. In my house it’s >$60 easily. That buys me a couple DVDs & sporadic rentals for $5 throughout the year. That’s it...
...And this was when my kids could watch some of the new(ish) DIS movies on Netflix/Starz etc (Frozen, Incredibles 2, Moana). Now you get everything, anytime for about the same price
This doesn’t even account for all the other Disney content, DTC Disney+ movies, Disney+ originals, Marvel, Star Wars, NatGEO
As for projections, it’s hard to say. I believe DIS+ has pricing power a lot higher than $7. Unknowns are HULU, how bundling of the products will work, execution of divvying up content between services
Success shouldn’t be measured by what their subs are vs Netflix, but subs vs existing DIS business & as @ballmatthew pointed out, TOTAL Disney ARPU not DIS+ ARPU
Many are focusing on cannibalization of cable $ & loss of licensing $ (rightly so). But it should be acknowledged that DIS+ (unlike Netflix) will be populated w/ both existing evergreen IP & a CONSTANT stream of box office hits from Pixar, Disney, Marvel, Star Wars, FOX
Avengers: End Game, Lion King, Toy Story 4, Aladdin, Frozen 2, Star Wars Episode IX, Avatar (eventually), etc. Once DIS+ launches & these movies run their window, month after month Disney+ will be populated w/ hugely popular titles...
...which one would think entices new subscribers consistently & helps keep existing ones (unlike w/ HBO ie cancel/resubscribe before GoT season). Again as @ballmatthew has said DIS+ library will only get better
DIS should be able to spend < than Netflix on content. NFLX paid $300mm for streaming rights to DIS IP (plz check that). So you could either say that IP is “free” for DIS+ or DIS content spend is actually higher once u include cost to box office movies + volume will prob be lower
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Kevin Holloway
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