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25 tweets,
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“Wind brings waves“: N. Korea fires short-range missile en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN201905…
And to think I just RTed this an hour ago.
If this isn’t South Korea misreading a DPRK rocket artillery launch as a short-range ballistic missile (happened before), then we have our first missile launch in 522 days.
I wonder if it’s the new solid-propellant SRBM we saw at the February 8, 2018, parade. I wrote about that missile here when I was expecting to see it tested before the Singapore summit was on the table. thedailybeast.com/the-one-missil…
The missile was reportedly launched from Hodo peninsula, on North Korea’s east coast. Toksas, Scuds, CDCMs, and artillery have been tested from there.
Also, for anyone writing on this: this does *not* violate Kim Jong Un’s self-imposed missile-testing moratorium, which only applied to intercontinental-range ballistic missiles. DPRK historically did not generally test anything while talks were on with the US. Talks are not on.
A single SRBM launch off Hodo is suggestive of a developmental test, i.e., something new. Launching a single older SCUD is a possibility, but they haven’t done that in a while (last time was with the KN18, which was the new MaRV modernization).
I wouldn’t expect pictures/video from North Korea going by how the two recent “tactical” weapon tests have been calibrated and presented. They message here is not that diplomacy is over—remember, Kim has set the clock ticking to the end of the year.
Rather, this serves, like the tactical weapon tests, to show internal naysayers—those who “petitioned” Kim not to go to Hanoi, as Choe Son Hui said in March—that Kim takes national defense seriously. Also, tit-for-tat with US-ROK Dong Maeng exercises.
Update from ROK JCS: North Korea "fired a missile from its east coast town of Wonsan in the eastern direction at 9:06 a.m. today."
Update: 70 - 200 km range (?). Not a SCUD. Candidates include Toksa, new short-range SRBM, Kumsong-3/Kh-35 and associated variants incl. KN19 CDCM; something entirely new.
A CDCM/ASCM would be poetic with Kim’s warning of “waves.” Toksa hasn’t been seen in a fairly long time.
In any case, a “missile”, yes, but this was something on the small side of even that. Not “nuclear-capable” within set of capabilities known to be available to North Korea today. A rung above the “tactical” weapon—and enough to set off ROK JCS launch alerts.
Multiple missiles. Darn. That probably rules out the “new” SRBM (not a developmental test) and probably also the Toksa. Kumsong-3/Kh-35 CDCM/ASCM much more likely.
If you’re curious about the Kumsong-3/Kh-35, they last tested it in the summer of 2017 in its CDCM configuration off an integrated launcher. It got a bunch of nifty upgrades over the original Kh-35. My reporting from 2017: thediplomat.com/2017/07/north-…
ROK JCS in Yonhap: DPRK "fired multiple rounds of unidentified missiles from its east coast town of Wonsan in the northeastern direction between 9:06 a.m. and 9:27 a.m. today" — now sounding much more MLRS-ish, but that’s a long enough window for multiple CDCM/ASCM/SRBMs.
Range update via ROK JCS via Yonhap: 70 kilometers to 100 kilometers.
Within South Korea, this should start a political battle over whether DPRK just violated the September 19 Comprehensive Military Agreement. Article 1 reads the following. (NK sees ROK-US exercises as evidence of ROK violating this, no doubt.) 
First view from the United States.
It matters what the ROK JCS goes with initially because that's what Yonhap blasts outs and that's what ends up on the Fox News chyrons during "executive time."
(Of course—missiles are projectiles.)
I’ll keep the tweets shorter.
Lots going on at Yonhap. Two possibilities:
1) ROK JCS genuinely got something wrong with how the projectiles were identified as is now backtracking (that’s happened before, but *very* bad in this political climate). I personally doubt this.
1/2
1) ROK JCS genuinely got something wrong with how the projectiles were identified as is now backtracking (that’s happened before, but *very* bad in this political climate). I personally doubt this.
1/2
2) Possible political pressure from the Blue House to frame this without the m-word so POTUS doesn’t have to eat crow and potentially blow everything up.
Either way, ROK early assessments can and have been frequently wrong/off.
Either way, ROK early assessments can and have been frequently wrong/off.
Later quote in Yonhap: "What the North fired this time is not a ballistic missile"
US considers higher-caliber MLRS (incl. KN09/KN-SS-9) to be CRBMs—close range ballistic missiles. ROK doesn’t (AFAIK).
If it was a CDCM/Kh-35, it wouldn’t be a “ballistic missile,” though.
US considers higher-caliber MLRS (incl. KN09/KN-SS-9) to be CRBMs—close range ballistic missiles. ROK doesn’t (AFAIK).
If it was a CDCM/Kh-35, it wouldn’t be a “ballistic missile,” though.
