Thread by @HarunMaruf

The relations between Somalia and Kenya has been frosty recently. It could develop into serious stage beyond the control if things continue along this trajectory. The dispute eminates from dispute over maritime as well as land boundary. Here is why:-

First, Kenya has just imposed flights from Mogadishu to stopover Wajir for “security reasons”. But Somalia sees this a political move aimed at pressuring and embarrassing Somali travellers including national leaders. Mogadishu could retaliate and the response could be serious.

Second, border tension has reignited as Kenya intends to complete border fence. In recent weeks Somali residents along the border have taken on Kenya security forces. The residents twice brought down sections of the fence arguing that Kenya is encroaching on Somali soil.

Tension is simmering along the border. There were similar confrontations last year but things cooled down only after @M_Farmaajo and Uhuru Kenyatta met in Nairobi and “agreed” that the construction of the border fence be halted.

But Kenya is back, and in a move that could further deteriorate relations, Kenya officials opted to directly deal with regional officials rather than federal govt. Kenya military officials meet with Somali regional officials while about the fence, per Reports.

As observers put it, the meeting this week in Elwak b/w Jubbaland officials and non-AMISOM Kenya military officials is an attempt to use Somali regional officials as a “leverage to not only complete the wall, but also to show Mogadishu that they are in control of that sphere”.

Kenya has thousands of troops in Somalia, battling Al-Shabaab. Kenya argues idea behind the fence is to stop AS attacks. But there is no evidence the fence will stop AS, per observers. In addition, Somalia doesn’t believe Kenya fence is following along the right borderline.

Third, Somalia and Kenya have a maritime delimitation case before @CIJ_ICJ. Kenya fought diplomatically to have the case solved outside court, Somalia feels only way it can protect its territory is through int’l arbitration given state of country and weakness of govt institutions

The mistrust is at a very high level. Kenya feels it helped Somalia by sending troops, hosting refugees. Somalia feels Kenya is in major sea and land encroachment on Somali territory. Relations could get worse unless countries find a way to overcome this difficult period.