The Somali Govt and African Union reportedly agreed framework for the AU mission in Somalia in the next 33 months after a meeting in Addis Ababa. According to documents being circulated, the new AU mission will transition from AMISOM to ATMIS (AU Transitional Mission to Somalia).
ATMIS to retain gains made since 2007 but will support objectives and priorities of Somali Transition Plan. ATMIS will conduct with SNA joint, targeted operations to degrade and “other armed opposition groups.”
ATMIS will consist of military, police and civilian components.
ATMIS is to be headed by a special representative to be appointed by @AUC_MoussaFaki. New ATMIS force commander will come from the largest contributing country (now it rotates). Current troop, police contributing countries to form the basis of ATMIS with possibility for expansion
TCC countries must agree their troops will come under full operational command of force commander. AU to support federal govt meet required conditions for lifting arms embargo. ATMIS sector boundaries to be aligned w @SNAForce sector boundaries w focus on operational objectives.
Somali Govt sets new deadline for @SNAForce to provide internal security and assume security responsibilities from ATMIS by Dec 31, 2023, per docs. Transfer will be gradual, conditions-based, dependant on tangible progress made by Govt in generation of capacity to takeover FOBs.
Transition from AMISOM to ATMIS to take first 9 months; followed by conduct of joint decisive operations for another 9 months; and a third 9 months period for decisive simultaneous operations against Shabaab; and finally exit of ATMIS in the last 7 months of the 33 months mission
March 2022 marks 15 years since @amisomsomalia has been operational in Somalia. If/when this new 33-months-long mission ends, AMISOM/ATMIS will have been in Somalia for about 18 years.
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BREAKING: Twist in Somalia election process as President @M_Farmaajo accuses PM @MohamedHRoble of “failing” to lead elections; calls for a consultative meeting to “course-correct” the election and to “agree on a leadership capable of implementing inclusive, transparent election”
In a late night statement, @M_Farmaajo accuses @MohamedHRoble of “deviating” from leading & implementing the election, and undermining committee tasked to manage the election. He also accused the PM of issuing unilateral decisions that could create obstacles to election process.
It was May 1 that @M_Farmaajo handed over the security and management of election process to @MohamedHRoble. In that speech at the Lower House of Parliament, he also asked the House to revert to the Sept. 17 election agreement, hence nullifying the two-year term extension.
BREAKING: key points from @mafgoi’s report: 25 entities and 3 embassies have been audited. Unsupported expenditure amounts to $9M; contracts worth $31M not registered with auditor general’s office, existence of un-authorized bank accounts outside the Treasury Single Account.
The Somali auditor general says $17 million external support has not been channeled through the country’s single treasury account. @mafgoi said federal member states and Banadir did not account for funds amounting $78M received from the Federal govt.
.@mafgoi audited Covid-19 response. He found Govt mobilised $51m, but only $15m of this was utilised. He reported lack of comprehensive plan to coordinate govt response, failure to prepare enough isolation, treatment facilities, failure to account for $3.9m covid funds to regions
Here is a thread summarizing where things stand with regard to the investigation of missing intelligence officer, Ikran Tahlil, based on my latest @i_dossier report. Ikran left her residence just after 8pm local time on June 26. She was never seen in public since.
Investigation into Ikran’s disappearance has stalled after the national intelligence agency blocked investigations into the case by the military courts, two officials and a lawmaker said. The intel agency said it has its own office section which conducts investigations.
According to two sources and Ikran’s MP, NISA argued and told investigators that they will not allow an investigation from an external government agency. Ikran near NISA HQs. NISA said footage of the security camera on the day of the disappearance is not available.
The new report by the UN Panel of Experts (PoE) is being circulated. The report covers the period between December 2020 and September 2021. I’m sharing some highlights:
PoE to investigate ramifications on peace and security in Somalia, specifically the role of Eritrea-trained Somali recruits, the majority of whom remain in Eritrea, but some of whom have returned to Somalia [news to me that some returned] to provide unspecified security functions
PoE says Al-Shabaab remains the greatest threat to the peace, security and stability of Somalia; generates enough revenue to sustain its insurgency for the foreseeable future. PoE estimates that Al-Shabaab operates around 100 checkpoints throughout the country.
After 20 years of “tiresome” Afghan war, the US is set to end its mission in a matter of days. But despite the reported 300,000 Afghan army and police trained by the Int’l Community, the Taliban are on the verge of taking over most of the country. What is the lesson for Somalia?
The Africa Union Mission has been in Somalia since March 2007. AMISOM numbers just under 20,000, and is now looking for a way out. AU experts recently proposed a hybrid mission of the AU & UN after 2021, with a mix of police (50%), military personnel (35%) and civilians (15%).
The Somali forces are set to take the lead in security responsibilities after 2021, but are they ready? Security officials say they are, but officials want the AU to align its operations with Somali-led transitional plan including readying mobile forces and not just sit in bases.
Somali Govt leaders have decided to bring Somali soldiers trained in Eritrea home within weeks. A team from Eritrea are currently in Somalia to assess area of deployment along with Somali security experts, according to two govt sources. @i_dossier reports voasomali.com/a/5989032.html
The govt has a tentative plant to have the soldiers operate in Southwest and Jubaland states. Eritrea is equipping them, per sources. Two govt officials said the soldiers who were mainly trained as mobile forces, have received the toughest training of all the Somali soldiers
Regarding the numbers. We have confirmed 3 camps.
Camp 1 = 1,500
Camp 2 = 900
Camp 3 = 2767
Total = 5,167
This is based on interviews with deserters. Is there a 4th or even 5th camp? If yes, then the number of soldiers would be more, closer to 7K, but needs further verification